The Inference Report

Financial institutions are beginning to deploy agentic workflows in credit, fraud, collections, compliance, and operational control. Governance remains largely component-centric: each model or agent is specified, tested, authorized, and monitored locally. That is insufficient when institutional risk arises from the joint behavior of many locally acceptable components. We call this gap constitutional non-compositionality: local compliance checks need not compose into acceptable collective outcomes such as bounded disparate impact, market integrity, or traceable accountability. We propose ARIA as a finance-specific reference architecture and falsifiable research agenda for agent-population governance. It organizes six capabilities across normative-accountability, execution-control, and assurance-learning planes: policy specification, population-level observed-versus-expected behavior monitoring (M2), bounded authority, runtime containment, adaptive policy change, and preserved human oversight competence. Two simulations illustrate shared-signal thin-file exclusion under local controls and earlier warning from observed-versus-expected distributional monitoring in a constructed drift regime. The contribution maps these controls to fair-lending, EU AI Act, model-risk, and conduct-supervision evidence needs, and closes with a validation agenda rather than a production-effectiveness claim.

As generative AI agents are deployed at scale, safety will depend not only on technical safeguards and individual model design, but also on collective equilibria that determine how agent populations process information, prioritize actions, and respond to uncertainty. Yet the same equilibria that enable agents to coordinate also create a social attack surface. The standard framework to assess this vulnerability is critical mass dynamics: the minimum fraction of adversarial agents required to overturn an equilibrium through direct competition. Here, we show that this approach risks underestimating system vulnerability by reducing the problem to the identification of singular tipping points, and ignoring indirect but potentially more efficient routes through which collective behavior can be redirected. Through experiments with populations of LLM agents and an analytic framework that captures their collective dynamics at scale, we map critical-mass thresholds that define a directed, weighted topology over the space of coordination equilibria, and treat this topology as a navigable landscape. We show that indirect tipping through intermediate stepping-stone equilibria can reduce the committed minority required to reach an alternative state, bypass majority requirements, and make possible transitions inaccessible through direct challenges. The diversity of available alternatives and timing of the attack further reshape this landscape, creating opportunities for control as well as risks of unintended destabilization. These results show that an equilibrium's resistance to committed intervention is not an intrinsic property but a structural feature of its competitive relations with alternative states. Securing populations of interacting AI agents therefore requires mapping this social landscape alongside individual agent capabilities and the technical channels through which they interact.

Social norms cannot be identified from behavior alone: the same cooperative equilibrium may reflect shared expectations, strategic incentives, or simple imitation. Yet in multi-agent large language model systems, prior work largely treats behavioral convergence as evidence of norm emergence. In this work, we introduce an evaluation framework that measures agents' reported empirical and normative expectations in addition to behavioral convergence. Through controlled ablations, we test the effect of expectation elicitation and isolate two collective mechanisms central to theories of norm formation---social learning through interaction and social selection through network-based group formation. We further test the stability of these resulting dynamics under adversarial disruption across four LLM families. We find that eliciting expectations increases cooperative contributions, while social learning stabilizes behavior, and social selection reliably identifies cooperators but provides limited behavioral reinforcement. Following disruption, normative expectations and behavioral coordination recover differently. Together, these results show that similar cooperative outcomes can arise from different underlying social processes. By making expectations observable, our framework allows us to attribute each mechanism's contribution separately, offering designers of multi-agent systems a principled basis for selecting the social processes that sustain cooperation.

Renewable energy communities (RECs) coordinate buildings, photovoltaic generation, batteries, electric vehicles and flexible loads. Controller studies often simplify changing participation, equipment availability, service deadlines and data quality, so lower cost or peak demand can conceal missed services or infeasible power requests. This paper presents CityLearn v3, a configurable simulation and evaluation framework for REC control studies under these conditions. It represents changing members and assets, flexible-load deadlines, demand-response requests, local energy sharing, and data or equipment failures within one simulation environment. Building and phase power limits constrain controllable requests, while a declared timestep preserves consistent power-to-energy accounting. The framework records controller inputs and distinguishes requested actions from those applied to the simulated equipment. Reference controllers, service- and constraint-aware performance indicators, and trajectory exports support comparisons within and across communities. Software checks and application examples examine service delivery, electrical constraints, settlement and changing scenarios; a synthetic high-frequency trace replay illustrates how aggregation can conceal short peaks without changing annual energy. Together, these records allow aggregate performance to be interpreted alongside service failures, action reductions and participant-level outcomes.

LLM agents in social simulation revise their opinions implicitly, in context: how open an agent is to persuasion can neither be specified nor verified, and collective outcomes inherit the model's training prior. We introduce Bayesian Chronicle Agents (BCA), a minimal belief layer separating \emph{what} an agent believes from \emph{how} it speaks. Each stance is a probability, updated by one Bayesian step per utterance heard. A single prior-strength parameter $κ$ encodes stubbornness, modeled after its role in Friedkin--Johnsen (FJ) opinion dynamics. We then sweep this parameter to yield three canonical regimes of opinion dynamics on demand (consensus, persistent disagreement, committed-minority influence), with persistent disagreement matching the FJ closed-form fixed points at $R^2\!=\!0.93$--$0.99$. We further show that prescribed $κ$ remains recoverable after the language round-trip, with perfect rank-order recovery across all four models. Explicit belief also makes simulation auditable: the layer surfaces systematic per-model stance biases that end-to-end simulation would silently absorb.

In multi-agent environments, coordinating agents to prevent interference and ensure robust individual performance is a critical challenge. Previous research on social laws for multi-agent systems has primarily focused on deterministic, goal-based settings. This paper extends the concept of social laws to stochastic, reward-based environments, proposing a formalism for defining and verifying their robustness under various conditions. We introduce the notion of $α$-robustness, a measure of the guaranteed utility each agent retains while pursuing its optimal single agent policy, assuming all agents obey the social law. We then present an approach for robustness verification of social laws in stochastic settings, based on a reduction to solving a series of Markov decision processes. Empirical evaluations on toy environments illustrate the potential of our framework.