Across these papers, statistical machine learning exhibits a pronounced turn toward incorporating structure, geometric, causal, and temporal, into learning frameworks where classical parametric assumptions break down. A cluster of work addresses identifiability and recovery under latent confounding, non-Markovian dynamics, and stratified geometry: papers on causal representation learning with degenerate Gaussian mixtures, non-Markovian optimal control via importance sampling, and transport-map recovery from measure-valued data all rely on explicit structural constraints (sparsity, low-rank factors, smoothness regularization) to resolve otherwise ill-posed problems. Complementary to this, a second current emphasizes uncertainty quantification and distribution learning through generative models, particularly diffusion-based and variational approaches: work on stratified learning via mixture VAEs, causal diffusion models for counterfactual outcomes, and score-based density ratio estimation all replace point estimation with full distributional inference, grounding theory in convergence rates and information-geometric decomposition. A third thread tackles inference under heavy tails and distributional misspecification by replacing moment-generating-function arguments with sub-Weibull tail theory, decorrelation lemmas, and Rényi divergences, evident in generalization bounds for RLHF and SGLD, and in semi-bandit regret analysis under covariance adaptation. Finally, several papers extend classical statistical tools (mixed-effects models, control charts, Q-learning) into nonparametric and high-dimensional regimes by combining neural networks with orthogonal risk functions, exact variance formulas, and doubly robust pseudo-outcomes. Throughout, the methodological emphasis is on separating approximation error from model-risk error, establishing oracle inequalities, and validating theory on structured synthetic benchmarks before application to real data.
Cole Brennan
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This paper studies continuous-time stochastic control problems whose controlled states are fully non-Markovian and depend on unknown model parameters. Such problems arise naturally in path-dependent stochastic differential equations, rough-volatility hedging, and systems driven by fractional Brownian motion. Building on the discrete skeleton approach developed in earlier work, we propose a Monte Carlo learning methodology for the associated embedded backward dynamic programming equation. Our main contribution is twofold. First, we construct explicit dominating training laws and Radon--Nikodym weights for several representative classes of non-Markovian controlled systems. This yields an off-model training architecture in which a fixed synthetic dataset is generated under a reference law, while the dynamic programming operators associated with a target model are recovered by importance sampling. Second, we use this structure to design an adaptive update mechanism under parametric model uncertainty, so that repeated recalibration can be performed by reweighting the same training sample rather than regenerating new trajectories. For fixed parameters, we establish non-asymptotic error bounds for the approximation of the embedded dynamic programming equation via deep neural networks. For adaptive learning, we derive quantitative estimates that separate Monte Carlo approximation error from model-risk error. Numerical experiments illustrate both the off-model training mechanism and the adaptive importance-sampling update in structured linear-quadratic examples.
Rare events such as conformational changes in biomolecules, phase transitions, and chemical reactions are central to the behavior of many physical systems, yet they are extremely difficult to study computationally because unbiased simulations seldom produce them. Transition Path Theory (TPT) provides a rigorous statistical framework for analyzing such events: it characterizes the ensemble of reactive trajectories between two designated metastable states (reactant and product), and its central object--the committor function, which gives the probability that the system will next reach the product rather than the reactant--encodes all essential kinetic and thermodynamic information. We introduce a framework that casts committor estimation as a stochastic optimal control (SOC) problem. In this formulation the committor defines a feedback control--proportional to the gradient of its logarithm--that actively steers trajectories toward the reactive region, thereby enabling efficient sampling of reactive paths. To solve the resulting hitting-time control problem we develop two complementary objectives: a direct backpropagation loss and a principled off-policy Value Matching loss, for which we establish first-order optimality guarantees. We further address metastability, which can trap controlled trajectories in intermediate basins, by introducing an alternative sampling process that preserves the reactive current while lowering effective energy barriers. On benchmark systems, the framework yields markedly more accurate committor estimates, reaction rates, and equilibrium constants than existing methods.
Causal representation learning (CRL) aims to identify the underlying latent variables from high-dimensional observations, even when variables are dependent with each other. We study this problem for latent variables that follow a potentially degenerate Gaussian mixture distribution and that are only observed through the transformation via a piecewise affine mixing function. We provide a series of progressively stronger identifiability results for this challenging setting in which the probability density functions are ill-defined because of the potential degeneracy. For identifiability up to permutation and scaling, we leverage a sparsity regularization on the learned representation. Based on our theoretical results, we propose a two-stage method to estimate the latent variables by enforcing sparsity and Gaussianity in the learned representations. Experiments on synthetic and image data highlight our method's effectiveness in recovering the ground-truth latent variables.
Clustering and dimensionality reduction have been crucial topics in machine learning and computer vision. Clustering high-dimensional data has been challenging for a long time due to the curse of dimensionality. For that reason, a more promising direction is the joint learning of dimension reduction and clustering. In this work, we propose a Manifold Learning Framework that learns dimensionality reduction and clustering simultaneously. The proposed framework is able to jointly learn the parameters of a dimension reduction technique (e.g. linear projection or a neural network) and cluster the data based on the resulting features (e.g. under a Gaussian Mixture Model framework). The framework searches for the dimension reduction parameters and the optimal clusters by traversing a manifold,using Gradient Manifold Optimization. The obtained The proposed framework is exemplified with a Gaussian Mixture Model as one simple but efficient example, in a process that is somehow similar to unsupervised Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA). We apply the proposed method to the unsupervised training of simulated data as well as a benchmark image dataset (i.e. MNIST). The experimental results indicate that our algorithm has better performance than popular clustering algorithms from the literature.
The robust low-rank tensor completion problem addresses the challenge of recovering corrupted high-dimensional tensor data with missing entries, outliers, and sparse noise commonly found in real-world applications. Existing methodologies have encountered fundamental limitations due to their reliance on uniform regularization schemes, particularly the tensor nuclear norm and $\ell_1$ norm regularization approaches, which indiscriminately apply equal shrinkage to all singular values and sparse components, thereby compromising the preservation of critical tensor structures. The proposed tensor weighted correlated total variation (TWCTV) regularizer addresses these shortcomings through an $M$-product framework that combines a weighted Schatten-$p$ norm on gradient tensors for low-rankness with smoothness enforcement and weighted sparse components for noise suppression. The proposed weighting scheme adaptively reduces the thresholding level to preserve both dominant singular values and sparse components, thus improving the reconstruction of critical structural elements and nuanced details in the recovered signal. Through a systematic algorithmic approach, we introduce an enhanced alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) that offers both computational efficiency and theoretical substantiation, with convergence properties comprehensively analyzed within the $M$-product framework.Comprehensive numerical evaluations across image completion, denoising, and background subtraction tasks validate the superior performance of this approach relative to established benchmark methods.
We investigate stochastic combinatorial semi-bandits, where the entire joint distribution of outcomes impacts the complexity of the problem instance (unlike in the standard bandits). Typical distributions considered depend on specific parameter values, whose prior knowledge is required in theory but quite difficult to estimate in practice; an example is the commonly assumed sub-Gaussian family. We alleviate this issue by instead considering a new general family of sub-exponential distributions, which contains bounded and Gaussian ones. We prove a new lower bound on the expected regret on this family, that is parameterized by the unknown covariance matrix of outcomes, a tighter quantity than the sub-Gaussian matrix. We then construct an algorithm that uses covariance estimates, and provide a tight asymptotic analysis of the regret. Finally, we apply and extend our results to the family of sparse outcomes, which has applications in many recommender systems.
In optimization problems, some variable subsets may have a joint non-linear or non-monotonical influence on the function value. Therefore, knowledge of variable dependencies may be crucial for effective optimization, and many state-of-the-art optimizers leverage it to improve performance. However, some real-world problem instances may be the subject of noise of various origins. In such a case, variable dependencies relevant to optimization may be hard or impossible to tell using dependency checks sufficient for problems without noise, making highly effective operators, e.g., Partition Crossover (PX), useless. Therefore, we use Statistical Linkage Learning (SLL) to decompose problems with noise and propose a new SLL-dedicated mask construction algorithm. We prove that if the quality of the SLL-based decomposition is sufficiently high, the proposed clustering algorithm yields masks equivalent to PX masks for the noise-free instances. The experiments show that the optimizer using the proposed mechanisms remains equally effective despite the noise level and outperforms state-of-the-art optimizers for the problems with high noise.
This work is concerned with the continuum limit of a graph-based data visualization technique called the t-Distributed Stochastic Neighbor Embedding (t-SNE), which is widely used for visualizing data in a variety of applications, but is still poorly understood from a theoretical standpoint. The t-SNE algorithm produces visualizations by minimizing the Kullback-Leibler divergence between similarity matrices representing the high dimensional data and its low dimensional representation. We prove that as the number of data points $n \to \infty$, after a natural rescaling and in applicable parameter regimes, the Kullback-Leibler divergence is consistent as the number of data points $n \to \infty$ and the similarity graph remains sparse with a continuum variational problem that involves a non-convex gradient regularization term and a penalty on the magnitude of the probability density function in the visualization space. These two terms represent the continuum limits of the attraction and repulsion forces in the t-SNE algorithm. Due to the lack of convexity in the continuum variational problem, the question of well-posedeness is only partially resolved. We show that when both dimensions are $1$, the problem admits a unique smooth minimizer, along with an infinite number of discontinuous minimizers (interpreted in a relaxed sense). This aligns well with the empirically observed ability of t-SNE to separate data in seemingly arbitrary ways in the visualization. The energy is also very closely related to the famously ill-posed Perona-Malik equation, which is used for denoising and simplifying images. We present numerical results validating the continuum limit, provide some preliminary results about the delicate nature of the limiting energetic problem in higher dimensions, and highlight several problems for future work.
Monitoring binomial proportions across multiple independent streams is a critical challenge in Statistical Process Control (SPC), with applications from manufacturing to cybersecurity. While EWMA charts offer sensitivity to small shifts, existing implementations rely on asymptotic variance approximations that fail during early-phase monitoring. We introduce a Cumulative Standardized Binomial EWMA (CSB-EWMA) chart that overcomes this limitation by deriving the exact time-varying variance of the EWMA statistic for binary multiple-stream data, enabling adaptive control limits that ensure statistical rigor from the first sample. Through extensive simulations, we identify optimal smoothing (λ) and limit (L) parameters to achieve target in-control average run length (ARL0) of 370 and 500. The CSB-EWMA chart demonstrates rapid shift detection across both ARL0 targets, with out-of-control average run length (ARL1) dropping to 3-7 samples for moderate shifts (δ=0.2), and exhibits exceptional robustness across different data distributions, with low ARL1 Coefficients of Variation (CV < 0.10 for small shifts) for both ARL0 = 370 and 500. This work provides practitioners with a distribution-free, sensitive, and theoretically sound tool for early change detection in binomial multiple-stream processes.
Fine-tuning is a widely used strategy for adapting pre-trained models to new tasks, yet its methodology and theoretical properties in high-dimensional nonparametric settings with variable selection have not yet been developed. This paper introduces the fine-tuning factor augmented neural Lasso (FAN-Lasso), a transfer learning framework for high-dimensional nonparametric regression with variable selection that simultaneously handles covariate and posterior shifts. We use a low-rank factor structure to manage high-dimensional dependent covariates and propose a novel residual fine-tuning decomposition in which the target function is expressed as a transformation of a frozen source function and other variables to achieve transfer learning and nonparametric variable selection. This augmented feature from the source predictor allows for the transfer of knowledge to the target domain and reduces model complexity there. We derive minimax-optimal excess risk bounds for the fine-tuning FAN-Lasso, characterizing the precise conditions, in terms of relative sample sizes and function complexities, under which fine-tuning yields statistical acceleration over single-task learning. The proposed framework also provides a theoretical perspective on parameter-efficient fine-tuning methods. Extensive numerical experiments across diverse covariate- and posterior-shift scenarios demonstrate that the fine-tuning FAN-Lasso consistently outperforms standard baselines and achieves near-oracle performance even under severe target sample size constraints, empirically validating the derived rates.
We decompose the Kullback--Leibler generalization error (GE) -- the expected KL divergence from the data distribution to the trained model -- of unsupervised learning into three non-negative components: model error, data bias, and variance. The decomposition is exact for any e-flat model class and follows from two identities of information geometry: the generalized Pythagorean theorem and a dual e-mixture variance identity. As an analytically tractable demonstration, we apply the framework to $ε$-PCA, a regularized principal component analysis in which the empirical covariance is truncated at rank $N_K$ and discarded directions are pinned at a fixed noise floor $ε$. Although rank-constrained $ε$-PCA is not itself e-flat, it admits a technical reformulation with the same total GE on isotropic Gaussian data, under which each component of the decomposition takes closed form. The optimal rank emerges as the cutoff $λ_{\mathrm{cut}}^{*} = ε$ -- the model retains exactly those empirical eigenvalues exceeding the noise floor -- with the cutoff reflecting a marginal-rate balance between model-error gain and data-bias cost. A boundary comparison further yields a three-regime phase diagram -- retain-all, interior, and collapse -- separated by the lower Marchenko--Pastur edge and an analytically computable collapse threshold $ε_{*}(α)$, where $α$ is the dimension-to-sample-size ratio. All claims are verified numerically.
In-context learning enables transformers to adapt to new tasks from a few examples at inference time, while grokking highlights that this generalization can emerge abruptly only after prolonged training. We study task generalization and grokking in in-context learning using a Bayesian perspective, asking what enables the delayed transition from memorization to generalization. Concretely, we consider modular arithmetic tasks in which a transformer must infer a latent linear function solely from in-context examples and analyze how predictive uncertainty evolves during training. We combine approximate Bayesian techniques to estimate the posterior distribution and we study how uncertainty behaves across training and under changes in task diversity, context length, and context noise. We find that epistemic uncertainty collapses sharply when the model groks, making uncertainty a practical label-free diagnostic of generalization in transformers. Additionally, we provide theoretical support with a simplified Bayesian linear model, showing that asymptotically both delayed generalization and uncertainty peaks arise from the same underlying spectral mechanism, which links grokking time to uncertainty dynamics.
Predicting counterfactual outcomes in longitudinal data, where sequential treatment decisions heavily depend on evolving patient states, is critical yet notoriously challenging due to complex time-dependent confounding and inadequate uncertainty quantification in existing methods. We introduce the Causal Diffusion Model (CDM), the first denoising diffusion probabilistic approach explicitly designed to generate full probabilistic distributions of counterfactual outcomes under sequential interventions. CDM employs a novel residual denoising architecture with relational self-attention, capturing intricate temporal dependencies and multimodal outcome trajectories without requiring explicit adjustments (e.g., inverse-probability weighting or adversarial balancing) for confounding. In rigorous evaluation on a pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic tumor-growth simulator widely adopted in prior work, CDM consistently outperforms state-of-the-art longitudinal causal inference methods, achieving a 15-30% relative improvement in distributional accuracy (1-Wasserstein distance) while maintaining competitive or superior point-estimate accuracy (RMSE) under high-confounding regimes. By unifying uncertainty quantification and robust counterfactual prediction in complex, sequentially confounded settings, without tailored deconfounding, CDM offers a flexible, high-impact tool for decision support in medicine, policy evaluation, and other longitudinal domains.
Conditional effects are commonly used measures for understanding how treatment effects vary across different groups, and are often used to target treatments/interventions to groups who benefit most. In this work we review existing methods and propose novel ones, focusing on the odds ratio (OR) and the risk ratio (RR). While estimation of the conditional average treatment effect (ATE) has been widely studied, estimators for the OR and RR lag behind, and cutting edge estimators such as those based on doubly robust transformations or orthogonal risk functions have not been generalized to these parameters. We propose such a generalization here, focusing on the DR-learner and the R-learner. We derive orthogonal risk functions for the OR and RR and show that the associated pseudo-outcomes satisfy second-order conditional-mean remainder properties analogous to the ATE case. We also evaluate estimators for the conditional ATE, OR, and RR in a comprehensive nonparametric Monte Carlo simulation study to compare them with common alternatives under hundreds of different data-generating distributions. Our numerical studies provide empirical guidance for choosing an estimator. For instance, they show that while parametric models are useful in very simple settings, the proposed nonparametric estimators significantly reduce bias and mean squared error in the more complex settings expected in the real world. We illustrate the methods in the analysis of physical activity and sleep trouble in U.S. adults using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). The results demonstrate that our estimators uncover substantial treatment effect heterogeneity that is obscured by traditional regression approaches and lead to improved treatment decision rules, highlighting the importance of data-adaptive methods for advancing precision health research.
While the manifold hypothesis is widely adopted in modern machine learning, complex data is often better modeled as stratified spaces -- unions of manifolds (strata) of varying dimensions. Stratified learning is challenging due to varying dimensionality, intersection singularities, and lack of efficient models in learning the underlying distributions. We provide a deep generative approach to stratified learning by developing two generative frameworks for learning distributions on stratified spaces. The first is a sieve maximum likelihood approach realized via a dimension-aware mixture of variational autoencoders. The second is a diffusion-based framework that explores the score field structure of a mixture. We establish the convergence rates for learning both the ambient and intrinsic distributions, which are shown to be dependent on the intrinsic dimensions and smoothness of the underlying strata. Utilizing the geometry of the score field, we also establish consistency for estimating the intrinsic dimension of each stratum and propose an algorithm that consistently estimates both the number of strata and their dimensions. Theoretical results for both frameworks provide fundamental insights into the interplay of the underlying geometry, the ambient noise level, and deep generative models. Extensive simulations and real dataset applications, such as molecular dynamics, demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods.
Density ratio estimation (DRE) is a useful tool for quantifying discrepancies between probability distributions, but existing approaches often involve a trade-off between estimation quality and computational efficiency. Classical direct DRE methods are usually efficient at inference time, yet their performance can seriously deteriorate when the discrepancy between distributions is large. In contrast, score-based DRE methods often yield more accurate estimates in such settings, but they typically require considerable repeated function evaluations and numerical integration. We propose One-step Score-based Density Ratio Estimation (OS-DRE), a partly analytic and solver-free framework designed to combine these complementary advantages. OS-DRE decomposes the time score into spatial and temporal components, representing the latter with an analytic radial basis function (RBF) frame. This formulation converts the otherwise intractable temporal integral into a closed-form weighted sum, thereby removing the need for numerical solvers and enabling DRE with only one function evaluation. We further analyze approximation conditions for the analytic frame, and establish approximation error bounds for both finitely and infinitely smooth temporal kernels, grounding the framework in existing approximation theory. Experiments across density estimation, continual Kullback-Leibler and mutual information estimation, and near out-of-distribution detection demonstrate that OS-DRE offers a favorable balance between estimation quality and inference efficiency.
Classical information-theoretic generalization bounds typically control the generalization gap through KL-based mutual information and therefore rely on boundedness or sub-Gaussian tails via the moment generating function (MGF). In many modern pipelines, such as robust learning, RLHF, and stochastic optimization, losses and rewards can be heavy-tailed, and MGFs may not exist, rendering KL-based tools ineffective. We develop a tail-dependent information-theoretic framework for sub-Weibull data, where the tail parameter $θ$ controls the tail heaviness: $θ=2$ corresponds to sub-Gaussian, $θ=1$ to sub-exponential, and $0<θ<1$ to genuinely heavy tails. Our key technical ingredient is a decorrelation lemma that bounds change-of-measure expectations using a shifted-log $f_θ$-divergence, which admits explicit comparisons to Rényi divergence without MGF arguments. On the empirical-process side, we establish sharp maximal inequalities and a Dudley-type chaining bound for sub-Weibull processes with tail index $θ$, with complexity scaling as $\log^{1/θ}$ and entropy$^{1/θ}$. These tools yield expected and high-probability PAC-Bayes generalization bounds, as well as an information-theoretic chaining inequality based on multiscale Rényi mutual information. We illustrate the consequences in Rényi-regularized RLHF under heavy-tailed rewards and in stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics with heavy-tailed gradient noise.
Generalized linear mixed-effects models (GLMMs) are widely used to analyze grouped and hierarchical data. In a GLMM, each response is assumed to follow an exponential-family distribution where the natural parameter is given by a linear function of observed covariates and a latent group-specific random effect. Since exact marginalization over the random effects is typically intractable, model parameters are estimated by maximizing an approximate marginal likelihood. In this paper, we replace the linear function with neural networks. The result is a more flexible model, the neural generalized mixed-effects model (NGMM), which captures complex relationships between covariates and responses. To fit NGMM to data, we introduce an efficient optimization procedure that maximizes the approximate marginal likelihood and is differentiable with respect to network parameters. We show that the approximation error of our objective decays at a Gaussian-tail rate in a user-chosen parameter. On synthetic data, NGMM improves over GLMMs when covariate-response relationships are nonlinear, and on real-world datasets it outperforms prior methods. Finally, we analyze a large dataset of student proficiency to demonstrate how NGMM can be extended to more complex latent-variable models.
This paper reorganizes the current manuscript around the DPO versus DDO-RM preference-optimization project and focuses on two parts: the algorithmic view and the preliminary held-out benchmark. The benchmark asks a narrow question: even in a minimal pairwise chosen-versus-rejected setting, can a reward-guided decision-distribution update outperform a direct pairwise objective? We compare Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) against DDO-RM on EleutherAI/pythia-410m using HuggingFaceH4/ultrafeedback\_binarized, evaluate on the held-out test\_prefs split, and report results for seeds 42, 13, and 3407. Algorithmically, DDO-RM treats each prompt as a finite decision problem over candidate responses. Instead of optimizing only a binary chosen-rejected relation, it forms a policy distribution over candidates, centers reward-model scores under that distribution, and distills a reward-guided target distribution back into the policy. In the current public benchmark, DDO-RM improves mean pair accuracy from 0.5238 to 0.5602, AUC from 0.5315 to 0.5382, and mean margin from 0.1377 to 0.5353 relative to DPO. These are encouraging but still preliminary results: the study covers one model family, one dataset, one held-out evaluation split, and three seeds.
Clinical decision-making often involves selecting tests that are costly, invasive, or time-consuming, motivating individualized, sequential strategies for what to measure and when to stop ascertaining. We study the problem of learning cost-optimal sequential decision policies from retrospective data, where test availability depends on prior results, inducing informative missingness. Under a sequential missing-at-random mechanism, we develop a doubly robust Q-learning framework for estimating optimal policies. The method introduces path-specific inverse probability weights that account for heterogeneous test trajectories and satisfy a normalization property conditional on the observed history. By combining these weights with auxiliary contrast models, we construct orthogonal pseudo-outcomes that enable unbiased policy learning when either the acquisition model or the contrast model is correctly specified. We establish oracle inequalities for the stage-wise contrast estimators, along with convergence rates, regret bounds, and misclassification rates for the learned policy. Simulations demonstrate improved cost-adjusted performance over weighted and complete-case baselines, and an application to a prostate cancer cohort study illustrates how the method reduces testing cost without compromising predictive accuracy.
We analyze two widely used local attribution methods, Local Shapley Values and LIME, which aim to quantify the contribution of a feature value $x_i$ to a specific prediction $f(x_1, \dots, x_p)$. Despite their widespread use, we identify fundamental limitations in their ability to reliably detect locally important features, even under ideal conditions with exact computations and independent features. We argue that a sound local attribution method should not assign importance to features that neither influence the model output (e.g., features with zero coefficients in a linear model) nor exhibit statistical dependence with functionality-relevant features. We demonstrate that both Local SV and LIME violate this fundamental principle. To address this, we propose R-LOCO (Regional Leave Out COvariates), which bridges the gap between local and global explanations and provides more accurate attributions. R-LOCO segments the input space into regions with similar feature importance characteristics. It then applies global attribution methods within these regions, deriving an instance's feature contributions from its regional membership. This approach delivers more faithful local attributions while avoiding local explanation instability and preserving instance-specific detail often lost in global methods.
Feature importance methods using unrestricted permutations are flawed due to extrapolation errors; such errors appear in all non-trivial variable importance approaches. We propose three new approaches: conditional model reliance and Knockoffs with Gaussian transformation, and restricted ALE plot designs. Theoretical and numerical results show our strategies reduce/eliminate extrapolation.
As generative models enable rapid creation of high-fidelity images, societal concerns about misinformation and authenticity have intensified. A promising remedy is multi-bit image watermarking, which embeds a multi-bit message into an image so that a verifier can later detect whether the image is generated by someone and further identify the source by decoding the embedded message. Existing approaches often fall short in capacity, resilience to common image distortions, and theoretical justification. To address these limitations, we propose ADD (Add, Dot, Decode), a multi-bit image watermarking method with two stages: learning a watermark to be linearly combined with the multi-bit message and added to the image, and decoding through inner products between the watermarked image and the learned watermark. On the standard MS-COCO benchmark, we demonstrate that for the challenging task of 48-bit watermarking, ADD achieves 100\% decoding accuracy, with performance dropping by at most 2\% under a wide range of image distortions, substantially smaller than the 14\% average drop of state-of-the-art methods. In addition, ADD achieves substantial computational gains, with 2-fold faster embedding and 7.4-fold faster decoding than the fastest existing method. We further provide a theoretical analysis explaining why the learned watermark and the corresponding decoding rule are effective.
Unobserved confounding is a key challenge when estimating causal effects from a treatment on an outcome in scientific applications. In this work, we assume that we observe a single, potentially multi-dimensional proxy variable of the unobserved confounder and that we know the mechanism that generates the proxy from the confounder. Under a completeness assumption on this mechanism, which we call Single Proxy Identifiability of Causal Effects or simply SPICE, we prove that causal effects are identifiable. We extend the proxy-based causal identifiability results by Kuroki and Pearl (2014); Pearl (2010) to higher dimensions, more flexible functional relationships and a broader class of distributions. Further, we develop a neural network based estimation framework, SPICE-Net, to estimate causal effects, which is applicable to both discrete and continuous treatments.
We develop a predictive-first optimisation framework for streaming hidden Markov models. Unlike classical approaches that prioritise full posterior recovery under a fully specified generative model, we assume access to regime-specific predictive models whose parameters are learned online while maintaining a fixed transition prior over regimes. Our objective is to sequentially identify latent regimes while maintaining accurate step-ahead predictive distributions. Because the number of possible regime paths grows exponentially, exact filtering is infeasible. We therefore formulate streaming inference as a constrained projection problem in predictive-distribution space: under a fixed hypothesis budget, we approximate the full posterior predictive by the forward-KL optimal mixture supported on $S$ paths. The solution is the renormalised top-$S$ posterior-weighted mixture, providing a principled derivation of beam search for HMMs. The resulting algorithm is fully recursive and deterministic, performing beam-style truncation with closed-form predictive updates and requiring neither EM nor sampling. Empirical comparisons against Online EM and Sequential Monte Carlo under matched computational budgets demonstrate competitive prequential performance.
The Half-Trek Criterion (HTC) is the primary graphical tool for determining generic identifiability of causal effect coefficients in linear structural equation models (SEMs) with latent confounders. However, HTC is inherently node-wise: it simultaneously resolves all incoming edges of a node, leaving a gap of "inconclusive" causal effects (15-23% in moderate graphs). We introduce Iterative Identification Closure (IIC), a general framework that decouples causal identification into two phases: (1) a seed function S_0 that identifies an initial set of edges from any external source of information (instrumental variables, interventions, non-Gaussianity, prior knowledge, etc.); and (2) Reduced HTC propagation that iteratively substitutes known coefficients to reduce system dimension, enabling identification of edges that standard HTC cannot resolve. The core novelty is iterative identification propagation: newly identified edges feed back to unlock further identification -- a mechanism absent from all existing graphical criteria, which treat each edge (or node) in isolation. This propagation is non-trivial: coefficient substitution alters the covariance structure, and soundness requires proving that the modified Jacobian retains generic full rank -- a new theoretical result (Reduced HTC Theorem). We prove that IIC is sound, monotone, converges in O(|E|) iterations (empirically <=2), and strictly subsumes both HTC and ancestor decomposition. Exhaustive verification on all graphs with n<=5 (134,144 edges) confirms 100% precision (zero false positives); with combined seeds, IIC reduces the HTC gap by over 80%. The propagation gain is gamma~4x (2 seeds identifying ~3% of edges to 97.5% total identification), far exceeding gamma<=1.2x of prior methods that incorporate side information without iterative feedback.
We study the population loss landscape of two-layer ReLU networks of the form $\sum_{k=1}^K \mathrm{ReLU}(w_k^\top x)$ in a realisable teacher-student setting with Gaussian covariates. We show that local minima admit an exact low-dimensional representation in terms of summary statistics, yielding a sharp and interpretable characterisation of the landscape. We further establish a direct link with one-pass SGD: local minima correspond to attractive fixed points of the dynamics in summary statistics space. This perspective reveals a hierarchical structure of minima: they are typically isolated in the well-specified regime, but become connected by flat directions as network width increases. In this overparameterised regime, global minima become increasingly accessible, attracting the dynamics and reducing convergence to spurious solutions. Overall, our results reveal intrinsic limitations of common simplifying assumptions, which may miss essential features of the loss landscape even in minimal neural network models.
Learning-to-Defer routes each input to the expert that minimizes expected cost, but it assumes that the information available to every expert is fixed at decision time. Many modern systems violate this assumption: after selecting an expert, one may also choose what additional information that expert should receive, such as retrieved documents, tool outputs, or escalation context. We study this problem and call it Learning-to-Defer with advice. We show that a broad family of natural separated surrogates, which learn routing and advice with distinct heads, is inconsistent even in the smallest non-trivial setting. We then introduce an augmented surrogate that operates on the composite expert--advice action space and prove an $\mathcal{H}$-consistency guarantee together with an excess-risk transfer bound, yielding recovery of the Bayes-optimal policy in the limit. Experiments on tabular, language, and multi-modal tasks show that the resulting method improves over standard Learning-to-Defer while adapting its advice-acquisition behavior to the cost regime; a synthetic benchmark confirms the failure mode predicted for separated surrogates.
This research considers a scalable inference for spatial data modeled through Gaussian intrinsic conditional autoregressive (ICAR) structures. The classical estimation method, restricted maximum likelihood (REML), requires repeated inversion and factorization of large, sparse precision matrices, which makes this computation costly. To sort this problem out, we propose a variational restricted maximum likelihood (VREML) framework that approximates the intractable marginal likelihood using a Gaussian variational distribution. By constructing an evidence lower bound (ELBO) on the restricted likelihood, we derive a computationally efficient coordinate-ascent algorithm for jointly estimating the spatial random effects and variance components. In this article, we theoretically establish the monotone convergence of ELBO and mathematically exhibit that the variational family is exact under Gaussian ICAR settings, which is an indication of nullifying approximation error at the posterior level. We empirically establish the supremacy of our VREML over MLE and INLA.
We establish guarantees for the unique recovery of vector fields and transport maps from finite measure-valued data, yielding new insights into generative models, data-driven dynamical systems, and PDE inverse problems. In particular, we provide general conditions under which a diffeomorphism can be uniquely identified from its pushforward action on finitely many densities, i.e., when the data $\{(ρ_j,f_\#ρ_j)\}_{j=1}^m$ uniquely determines $f$. As a corollary, we introduce a new metric which compares diffeomorphisms by measuring the discrepancy between finitely many pushforward densities in the space of probability measures. We also prove analogous results in an infinitesimal setting, where derivatives of the densities along a smooth vector field are observed, i.e., when $\{(ρ_j,\text{div} (ρ_j v))\}_{j=1}^m$ uniquely determines $v$. Our analysis makes use of the Whitney and Takens embedding theorems, which provide estimates on the required number of densities $m$, depending only on the intrinsic dimension of the problem. We additionally interpret our results through the lens of Perron--Frobenius and Koopman operators and demonstrate how our techniques lead to new guarantees for the well-posedness of certain PDE inverse problems related to continuity, advection, Fokker--Planck, and advection-diffusion-reaction equations. Finally, we present illustrative numerical experiments demonstrating the unique identification of transport maps from finitely many pushforward densities, and of vector fields from finitely many weighted divergence observations.