The Inference Report

Gradient-boosted decision trees are among the strongest off-the-shelf predictors for tabular regression, but point predictions alone do not quantify uncertainty. Conformal prediction provides distribution-free marginal coverage, yet split conformal uses a single global residual quantile and can be poorly adaptive under heteroscedasticity. Methods that improve adaptivity typically fit auxiliary nuisance models or introduce additional data splits/partitions to learn the conformal score, increasing cost and reducing data efficiency. We propose LoBoost, a model-native local conformal method that reuses the fitted ensemble's leaf structure to define multiscale calibration groups. Each input is encoded by its sequence of visited leaves; at resolution level k, we group points by matching prefixes of leaf indices across the first k trees and calibrate residual quantiles within each group. LoBoost requires no retraining, auxiliary models, or extra splitting beyond the standard train/calibration split. Experiments show competitive interval quality, improved test MSE on most datasets, and large calibration speedups.

Flow matching has emerged as a simulation-free alternative to diffusion-based generative modeling, producing samples by solving an ODE whose time-dependent velocity field is learned along an interpolation between a simple source distribution (e.g., a standard normal) and a target data distribution. Flow-based methods often exhibit greater training stability and have achieved strong empirical performance in high-dimensional settings where data concentrate near a low-dimensional manifold, such as text-to-image synthesis, video generation, and molecular structure generation. Despite this success, existing theoretical analyses of flow matching assume target distributions with smooth, full-dimensional densities, leaving its effectiveness in manifold-supported settings largely unexplained. To this end, we theoretically analyze flow matching with linear interpolation when the target distribution is supported on a smooth manifold. We establish a non-asymptotic convergence guarantee for the learned velocity field, and then propagate this estimation error through the ODE to obtain statistical consistency of the implicit density estimator induced by the flow-matching objective. The resulting convergence rate is near minimax-optimal, depends only on the intrinsic dimension, and reflects the smoothness of both the manifold and the target distribution. Together, these results provide a principled explanation for how flow matching adapts to intrinsic data geometry and circumvents the curse of dimensionality.

In this work, we study scaling limits of shallow Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) via their connection to Gaussian processes (GPs), with an emphasis on statistical modeling, identifiability, and scalable inference. We first establish a general convergence result from BNNs to GPs by relaxing assumptions used in prior formulations, and we compare alternative parameterizations of the limiting GP model. Building on this theory, we propose a new covariance function defined as a convex mixture of components induced by four widely used activation functions, and we characterize key properties including positive definiteness and both strict and practical identifiability under different input designs. For computation, we develop a scalable maximum a posterior (MAP) training and prediction procedure using a Nyström approximation, and we show how the Nyström rank and anchor selection control the cost-accuracy trade-off. Experiments on controlled simulations and real-world tabular datasets demonstrate stable hyperparameter estimates and competitive predictive performance at realistic computational cost.

Amortized Bayesian Inference (ABI) enables efficient posterior estimation using generative neural networks trained on simulated data, but often suffers from performance degradation under model misspecification. While self-consistency (SC) training on unlabeled empirical data can enhance network robustness, current approaches are limited to static, single-task settings and fail to handle sequentially arriving data or distribution shifts. We propose a continual learning framework for ABI that decouples simulation-based pre-training from unsupervised sequential SC fine-tuning on real-world data. To address the challenge of catastrophic forgetting, we introduce two adaptation strategies: (1) SC with episodic replay, utilizing a memory buffer of past observations, and (2) SC with elastic weight consolidation, which regularizes updates to preserve task-critical parameters. Across three diverse case studies, our methods significantly mitigate forgetting and yield posterior estimates that outperform standard simulation-based training, achieving estimates closer to MCMC reference, providing a viable path for trustworthy ABI across a range of different tasks.

We study wide Bayesian neural networks focusing on the rare but statistically dominant fluctuations that govern posterior concentration, beyond Gaussian-process limits. Large-deviation theory provides explicit variational objectives-rate functions-on predictors, providing an emerging notion of complexity and feature learning directly at the functional level. We show that the posterior output rate function is obtained by a joint optimization over predictors and internal kernels, in contrast with fixed-kernel (NNGP) theory. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the resulting predictions accurately describe finite-width behavior for moderately sized networks, capturing non-Gaussian tails, posterior deformation, and data-dependent kernel selection effects.

We introduce kernel integrated $R^2$, a new measure of statistical dependence that combines the local normalization principle of the recently introduced integrated $R^2$ with the flexibility of reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHSs). The proposed measure extends integrated $R^2$ from scalar responses to responses taking values on general spaces equipped with a characteristic kernel, allowing to measure dependence of multivariate, functional, and structured data, while remaining sensitive to tail behaviour and oscillatory dependence structures. We establish that (i) this new measure takes values in $[0,1]$, (ii) equals zero if and only if independence holds, and (iii) equals one if and only if the response is almost surely a measurable function of the covariates. Two estimators are proposed: a graph-based method using $K$-nearest neighbours and an RKHS-based method built on conditional mean embeddings. We prove consistency and derive convergence rates for the graph-based estimator, showing its adaptation to intrinsic dimensionality. Numerical experiments on simulated data and a real data experiment in the context of dependency testing for media annotations demonstrate competitive power against state-of-the-art dependence measures, particularly in settings involving non-linear and structured relationships.

Simulating a Gaussian process requires sampling from a high-dimensional Gaussian distribution, which scales cubically with the number of sample locations. Spectral methods address this challenge by exploiting the Fourier representation, treating the spectral density as a probability distribution for Monte Carlo approximation. Although this probabilistic interpretation works for stationary processes, it is overly restrictive for the nonstationary case, where spectral densities are generally not probability measures. We propose regular Fourier features for harmonizable processes that avoid this limitation. Our method discretizes the spectral representation directly, preserving the correlation structure among spectral weights without requiring probability assumptions. Under a finite spectral support assumption, this yields an efficient low-rank approximation that is positive semi-definite by construction. When the spectral density is unknown, the framework extends naturally to kernel learning from data. We demonstrate the method on locally stationary kernels and on harmonizable mixture kernels with complex-valued spectral densities.

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a state of the art method for sampling from distributions with differentiable densities, but can converge slowly when applied to challenging multimodal problems. Running HMC with a time varying Hamiltonian, in order to interpolate from an initial tractable distribution to the target of interest, can address this problem. In conjunction with a weighting scheme to eliminate bias, this can be viewed as a special case of Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) sampling \cite{doucet2001introduction}. However, this approach can be inefficient, since it requires slow change between the initial and final distribution. Inspired by \cite{sels2017minimizing}, where a learned \emph{counterdiabatic} term added to the Hamiltonian allows for efficient quantum state preparation, we propose \emph{Counterdiabatic Hamiltonian Monte Carlo} (CHMC), which can be viewed as an SMC sampler with a more efficient kernel. We establish its relationship to recent proposals for accelerating gradient-based sampling with learned drift terms, and demonstrate on simple benchmark problems.

Bayesian inference for inverse problems involves computing expectations under posterior distributions -- e.g., posterior means, variances, or predictive quantities -- typically via Monte Carlo (MC) estimation. When the quantity of interest varies significantly under the posterior, accurate estimates demand many samples -- a cost often prohibitive for partial differential equation-constrained problems. To address this challenge, we introduce conditional neural control variates, a modular method that learns amortized control variates from joint model-data samples to reduce the variance of MC estimators. To scale to high-dimensional problems, we leverage Stein's identity to design an architecture based on an ensemble of hierarchical coupling layers with tractable Jacobian trace computation. Training requires: (i) samples from the joint distribution of unknown parameters and observed data; and (ii) the posterior score function, which can be computed from physics-based likelihood evaluations, neural operator surrogates, or learned generative models such as conditional normalizing flows. Once trained, the control variates generalize across observations without retraining. We validate our approach on stylized and partial differential equation-constrained Darcy flow inverse problems, demonstrating substantial variance reduction, even when the analytical score is replaced by a learned surrogate.

In this paper, we study last-iterate convergence of learning algorithms in bilinear saddle-point problems, a preferable notion of convergence that captures the day-to-day behavior of learning dynamics. We focus on the challenging setting where players select actions from compact convex sets and receive only bandit feedback. Our main contribution is the design of an uncoupled learning algorithm that guarantees last-iterate convergence to the Nash equilibrium with high probability. We establish a convergence rate of $\tilde{O}(T^{-1/4})$ up to polynomial factors in problem parameters. Crucially, our proposed algorithm is computationally efficient, requiring only an efficient linear optimization oracle over the players' compact action sets. The algorithm is obtained by combining techniques from experimental design and the classic Follow-The-Regularized-Leader (FTRL) framework, with a carefully chosen regularizer function tailored to the geometry of the action set of each learner.

Hyperdimensional Computing (HDC) offers a computationally efficient paradigm for neuromorphic learning. Yet, it lacks rigorous uncertainty quantification, leading to open decision boundaries and, consequently, vulnerability to outliers, adversarial perturbations, and out-of-distribution inputs. To address these limitations, we introduce ConformalHDC, a unified framework that combines the statistical guarantees of conformal prediction with the computational efficiency of HDC. For this framework, we propose two complementary variations. First, the set-valued formulation provides finite-sample, distribution-free coverage guarantees. Using carefully designed conformity scores, it forms enclosed decision boundaries that improve robustness to non-conforming inputs. Second, the point-valued formulation leverages the same conformity scores to produce a single prediction when desired, potentially improving accuracy over traditional HDC by accounting for class interactions. We demonstrate the broad applicability of the proposed framework through evaluations on multiple real-world datasets. In particular, we apply our method to the challenging problem of decoding non-spatial stimulus information from the spiking activity of hippocampal neurons recorded as subjects performed a sequence memory task. Our results show that ConformalHDC not only accurately decodes the stimulus information represented in the neural activity data, but also provides rigorous uncertainty estimates and correctly abstains when presented with data from other behavioral states. Overall, these capabilities position the framework as a reliable, uncertainty-aware foundation for neuromorphic computing.

We study inference on scalar-valued pathwise differentiable targets after adaptive data collection, such as a bandit algorithm. We introduce a novel target-specific condition, directional stability, which is strictly weaker than previously imposed target-agnostic stability conditions. Under directional stability, we show that estimators that would have been efficient under i.i.d. data remain asymptotically normal and semiparametrically efficient when computed from adaptively collected trajectories. The canonical gradient has a martingale form, and directional stability guarantees stabilization of its predictable quadratic variation, enabling high-dimensional asymptotic normality. We characterize efficiency using a convolution theorem for the adaptive-data setting, and give a condition under which the one-step estimator attains the efficiency bound. We verify directional stability for LinUCB, yielding the first semiparametric efficiency guarantee for a regular scalar target under LinUCB sampling.

Across many risk-sensitive areas, it is critical to continuously audit the performance of machine learning systems and detect any unusual behavior quickly. This can be modeled as a sequential hypothesis testing problem with $k$ incoming streams of data and a global null hypothesis that asserts that the system is working as expected across all $k$ streams. The standard global test employs a Bonferroni correction and has an expected stopping time bound of $O\left(\ln\frac{k}α\right)$ when $k$ is large and the significance level of the test, $α$, is small. In this work, we construct new sequential tests by using ideas of merging test martingales with different trade-offs in expected stopping times under different, sparse or dense alternative hypotheses. We further derive a new, balanced test that achieves an improved expected stopping time bound that matches Bonferroni's in the sparse setting but that naturally results in $O\left(\frac{1}{k}\ln\frac{1}α\right)$ under a dense alternative. We empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed tests on synthetic and real-world data.

This guide develops high-probability regret bounds for empirical risk minimization (ERM). The presentation is modular: we state broadly applicable guarantees under high-level conditions and give tools for verifying them for specific losses and function classes. We emphasize that many ERM rate derivations can be organized around a three-step recipe -- a basic inequality, a uniform local concentration bound, and a fixed-point argument -- which yields regret bounds in terms of a critical radius, defined via localized Rademacher complexity, under a mild Bernstein-type variance--risk condition. To make these bounds concrete, we upper bound the critical radius using local maximal inequalities and metric-entropy integrals, recovering familiar rates for VC-subgraph, Sobolev/Hölder, and bounded-variation classes. We also review ERM with nuisance components -- including weighted ERM and Neyman-orthogonal losses -- as they arise in causal inference, missing data, and domain adaptation. Following the orthogonal learning framework, we highlight that these problems often admit regret-transfer bounds linking regret under an estimated loss to population regret under the target loss. These bounds typically decompose regret into (i) statistical error under the estimated (optimized) loss and (ii) approximation error due to nuisance estimation. Under sample splitting or cross-fitting, the first term can be controlled using standard fixed-loss ERM regret bounds, while the second term depends only on nuisance-estimation accuracy. We also treat the in-sample regime, where nuisances and the ERM are fit on the same data, deriving regret bounds and giving sufficient conditions for fast rates.

The goal of fair clustering is to find clusters such that the proportion of sensitive attributes (e.g., gender, race, etc.) in each cluster is similar to that of the entire dataset. Various fair clustering algorithms have been proposed that modify standard K-means clustering to satisfy a given fairness constraint. A critical limitation of several existing fair clustering algorithms is that the number of parameters to be learned is proportional to the sample size because the cluster assignment of each datum should be optimized simultaneously with the cluster center, and thus scaling up the algorithms is difficult. In this paper, we propose a new fair clustering algorithm based on a finite mixture model, called Fair Model-based Clustering (FMC). A main advantage of FMC is that the number of learnable parameters is independent of the sample size and thus can be scaled up easily. In particular, mini-batch learning is possible to obtain clusters that are approximately fair. Moreover, FMC can be applied to non-metric data (e.g., categorical data) as long as the likelihood is well-defined. Theoretical and empirical justifications for the superiority of the proposed algorithm are provided.

Ordinal categorical data are widely collected in psychology, education, and other social sciences, appearing commonly in questionnaires, assessments, and surveys. Latent class models provide a flexible framework for uncovering unobserved heterogeneity by grouping individuals into homogeneous classes based on their response patterns. A fundamental challenge in applying these models is determining the number of latent classes, which is unknown and must be inferred from data. In this paper, we propose one test statistic for this problem. The test statistic centers the largest singular value of a normalized residual matrix by a simple sample-size adjustment. Under the null hypothesis that the candidate number of latent classes is correct, its upper bound converges to zero in probability. Under an under-fitted alternative, the statistic itself exceeds a fixed positive constant with probability approaching one. This sharp dichotomous behavior of the test statistic yields two sequential testing algorithms that consistently estimate the true number of latent classes. Extensive experimental studies confirm the theoretical findings and demonstrate their accuracy and reliability in determining the number of latent classes.

Representing, comparing, and measuring the distance between probability distributions is a key task in computational statistics and machine learning. The choice of representation and the associated distance determine properties of the methods in which they are used: for example, certain distances can allow one to encode robustness or smoothness of the problem. Kernel methods offer flexible and rich Hilbert space representations of distributions that allow the modeller to enforce properties through the choice of kernel, and estimate associated distances at efficient nonparametric rates. In particular, the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD), a kernel-based distance constructed by comparing Hilbert space mean functions, has received significant attention due to its computational tractability and is favoured by practitioners. In this thesis, we conduct a thorough study of kernel-based distances with a focus on efficient computation, with core contributions in Chapters 3 to 6. Part I of the thesis is focused on the MMD, specifically on improved MMD estimation. In Chapter 3 we propose a theoretically sound, improved estimator for MMD in simulation-based inference. Then, in Chapter 4, we propose an MMD-based estimator for conditional expectations, a ubiquitous task in statistical computation. Closing Part I, in Chapter 5 we study the problem of calibration when MMD is applied to the task of integration. In Part II, motivated by the recent developments in kernel embeddings beyond the mean, we introduce a family of novel kernel-based discrepancies: kernel quantile discrepancies. These address some of the pitfalls of MMD, and are shown through both theoretical results and an empirical study to offer a competitive alternative to MMD and its fast approximations. We conclude with a discussion on broader lessons and future work emerging from the thesis.

Understanding the geometry of learned distributions is fundamental to improving and interpreting diffusion models, yet systematic tools for exploring their landscape remain limited. Standard latent-space interpolations fail to respect the structure of the learned distribution, often traversing low-density regions. We introduce a framework based on the string method that computes continuous paths between samples by evolving curves under the learned score function. Operating on pretrained models without retraining, our approach interpolates between three regimes: pure generative transport, which yields continuous sample paths; gradient-dominated dynamics, which recover minimum energy paths (MEPs); and finite-temperature string dynamics, which compute principal curves -- self-consistent paths that balance energy and entropy. We demonstrate that the choice of regime matters in practice. For image diffusion models, MEPs contain high-likelihood but unrealistic ''cartoon'' images, confirming prior observations that likelihood maxima appear unrealistic; principal curves instead yield realistic morphing sequences despite lower likelihood. For protein structure prediction, our method computes transition pathways between metastable conformers directly from models trained on static structures, yielding paths with physically plausible intermediates. Together, these results establish the string method as a principled tool for probing the modal structure of diffusion models -- identifying modes, characterizing barriers, and mapping connectivity in complex learned distributions.

Active data acquisition is central to many learning and optimization tasks in deep neural networks, yet remains challenging because most approaches rely on predictive uncertainty estimates that are difficult to obtain reliably. To this end, we propose Goal-Oriented Influence- Maximizing Data Acquisition (GOIMDA), an active acquisition algorithm that avoids explicit posterior inference while remaining uncertainty-aware through inverse curvature. GOIMDA selects inputs by maximizing their expected influence on a user-specified goal functional, such as test loss, predictive entropy, or the value of an optimizer-recommended design. Leveraging first-order influence functions, we derive a tractable acquisition rule that combines the goal gradient, training-loss curvature, and candidate sensitivity to model parameters. We show theoretically that, for generalized linear models, GOIMDA approximates predictive-entropy minimization up to a correction term accounting for goal alignment and prediction bias, thereby, yielding uncertainty-aware behavior without maintaining a Bayesian posterior. Empirically, across learning tasks (including image and text classification) and optimization tasks (including noisy global optimization benchmarks and neural-network hyperparameter tuning), GOIMDA consistently reaches target performance with substantially fewer labeled samples or function evaluations than uncertainty-based active learning and Gaussian-process Bayesian optimization baselines.

High-dimensional generative modeling is fundamentally a manifold-learning problem: real data concentrate near a low-dimensional structure embedded in the ambient space. Effective generators must therefore balance support fidelity -- placing probability mass near the data manifold -- with sampling efficiency. Diffusion models often capture near-manifold structure but require many iterative denoising steps and can leak off-support; normalizing flows sample in one pass but are limited by invertibility and dimension preservation. We propose MAGT (Manifold-Aligned Generative Transport), a flow-like generator that learns a one-shot, manifold-aligned transport from a low-dimensional base distribution to the data space. Training is performed at a fixed Gaussian smoothing level, where the score is well-defined and numerically stable. We approximate this fixed-level score using a finite set of latent anchor points with self-normalized importance sampling, yielding a tractable objective. MAGT samples in a single forward pass, concentrates probability near the learned support, and induces an intrinsic density with respect to the manifold volume measure, enabling principled likelihood evaluation for generated samples. We establish finite-sample Wasserstein bounds linking smoothing level and score-approximation accuracy to generative fidelity, and empirically improve fidelity and manifold concentration across synthetic and benchmark datasets while sampling substantially faster than diffusion models.

Smooth activation functions are ubiquitous in modern deep learning, yet their theoretical advantages over non-smooth counterparts remain poorly understood. In this work, we characterize both approximation and statistical properties of neural networks with smooth activations over the Sobolev space $W^{s,\infty}([0,1]^d)$ for arbitrary smoothness $s>0$. We prove that constant-depth networks equipped with smooth activations automatically exploit arbitrarily high orders of target function smoothness, achieving the minimax-optimal approximation and estimation error rates (up to logarithmic factors). In sharp contrast, networks with non-smooth activations, such as ReLU, lack this adaptivity: their attainable approximation order is strictly limited by depth, and capturing higher-order smoothness requires proportional depth growth. These results identify activation smoothness as a fundamental mechanism, alternative to depth, for attaining statistical optimality. Technically, our results are established via a constructive approximation framework that produces explicit neural network approximators with carefully controlled parameter norms and model size. This complexity control ensures statistical learnability under empirical risk minimization (ERM) and removes the impractical sparsity constraints commonly required in prior analyses.

Dynamic predictions for longitudinal and time-to-event outcomes have become a versatile tool in precision medicine. Our work is motivated by the application of dynamic predictions in the decision-making process for primary biliary cholangitis patients. For these patients, serial biomarker measurements (e.g., bilirubin and alkaline phosphatase levels) are routinely collected to inform treating physicians of the risk of liver failure and guide clinical decision-making. Two popular statistical approaches to derive dynamic predictions are joint modelling and landmarking. However, recently, machine learning techniques have also been proposed. Each approach has its merits, and no single method exists to outperform all others. Consequently, obtaining the best possible survival estimates is challenging. Therefore, we extend the Super Learner framework to combine dynamic predictions from different models and procedures. Super Learner is an ensemble learning technique that allows users to combine different prediction algorithms to improve predictive accuracy and flexibility. It uses cross-validation and different objective functions of performance (e.g., squared loss) that suit specific applications to build the optimally weighted combination of predictions from a library of candidate algorithms. In our work, we pay special attention to appropriate objective functions for Super Learner to obtain the most optimal weighted combination of dynamic predictions. In our primary biliary cholangitis application, Super Learner presented unique benefits due to its ability to flexibly combine outputs from a diverse set of models with varying assumptions for equal or better predictive performance than any model fit separately.

Despite recent algorithmic advances, we still lack principled ways to leverage the well-documented rescaling symmetries in ReLU neural network parameters. While two properly rescaled weights implement the same function, the training dynamics can be dramatically different. To offer a fresh perspective on exploiting this phenomenon, we build on the recent path-lifting framework, which provides a compact factorization of ReLU networks. We introduce a geometrically motivated criterion to rescale neural network parameters which minimization leads to a conditioning strategy that aligns a kernel in the path-lifting space with a chosen reference. We derive an efficient algorithm to perform this alignment. In the context of random network initialization, we analyze how the architecture and the initialization scale jointly impact the output of the proposed method. Numerical experiments illustrate its potential to speed up training.

Neural networks are the cornerstone of modern machine learning, yet can be difficult to interpret, give overconfident predictions and are vulnerable to adversarial attacks. Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) provide some alleviation of these limitations, but have problems of their own. The key step of specifying prior distributions in BNNs is no trivial task, yet is often skipped out of convenience. In this work, we propose a new class of prior distributions for BNNs, the Dirichlet scale mixture (DSM) prior, that addresses current limitations in Bayesian neural networks through structured, sparsity-inducing shrinkage. Theoretically, we derive general dependence structures and shrinkage results for DSM priors and show how they manifest under the geometry induced by neural networks. In experiments on simulated and real world data we find that the DSM priors encourages sparse networks through implicit feature selection, show robustness under adversarial attacks and deliver competitive predictive performance with substantially fewer effective parameters. In particular, their advantages appear most pronounced in correlated, moderately small data regimes, and are more amenable to weight pruning. Moreover, by adopting heavy-tailed shrinkage mechanisms, our approach aligns with recent findings that such priors can mitigate the cold posterior effect, offering a principled alternative to the commonly used Gaussian priors.

We study post-calibration uncertainty for trained ensembles of classifiers. Specifically, we consider both aleatoric (label noise) and epistemic (model) uncertainty. Among the most popular and widely used calibration methods in classification are temperature scaling (i.e., pool-then-calibrate) and conformal methods. However, the main shortcoming of these calibration methods is that they do not balance the proportion of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. Not balancing these uncertainties can severely misrepresent predictive uncertainty, leading to overconfident predictions in some input regions while being underconfident in others. To address this shortcoming, we present a simple but powerful calibration algorithm Joint Uncertainty Calibration (JUCAL) that jointly calibrates aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. JUCAL jointly calibrates two constants to weight and scale epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties by optimizing the negative log-likelihood (NLL) on the validation/calibration dataset. JUCAL can be applied to any trained ensemble of classifiers (e.g., transformers, CNNs, or tree-based methods), with minimal computational overhead, without requiring access to the models' internal parameters. We experimentally evaluate JUCAL on various text classification tasks, for ensembles of varying sizes and with different ensembling strategies. Our experiments show that JUCAL significantly outperforms SOTA calibration methods across all considered classification tasks, reducing NLL and predictive set size by up to 15% and 20%, respectively. Interestingly, even applying JUCAL to an ensemble of size 5 can outperform temperature-scaled ensembles of size up to 50 in terms of NLL and predictive set size, resulting in up to 10 times smaller inference costs. Thus, we propose JUCAL as a new go-to method for calibrating ensembles in classification.

We study gap-dependent performance guarantees for nearly minimax-optimal algorithms in reinforcement learning with linear function approximation. While prior works have established gap-dependent regret bounds in this setting, existing analyses do not apply to algorithms that achieve the nearly minimax-optimal worst-case regret bound $\tilde{O}(d\sqrt{H^3K})$, where $d$ is the feature dimension, $H$ is the horizon length, and $K$ is the number of episodes. We bridge this gap by providing the first gap-dependent regret bound for the nearly minimax-optimal algorithm LSVI-UCB++ (He et al., 2023). Our analysis yields improved dependencies on both $d$ and $H$ compared to previous gap-dependent results. Moreover, leveraging the low policy-switching property of LSVI-UCB++, we introduce a concurrent variant that enables efficient parallel exploration across multiple agents and establish the first gap-dependent sample complexity upper bound for online multi-agent RL with linear function approximation, achieving linear speedup with respect to the number of agents.

Autoregressive models enable tractable sampling from learned probability distributions, but their performance critically depends on the variable ordering used in the factorization via complexities of the resulting conditional distributions. We propose to learn the Markov random field describing the underlying data, and use the inferred graphical model structure to construct optimized variable orderings. We illustrate our approach on two-dimensional image-like models where a structure-aware ordering leads to restricted conditioning sets, thereby reducing model complexity. Numerical experiments on Ising models with discrete data demonstrate that graph-informed orderings yield higher-fidelity generated samples compared to naive variable orderings.

Understanding minimal assumptions that enable learning and generalization is perhaps the central question of learning theory. Several celebrated results in statistical learning theory, such as the VC theorem and Littlestone's characterization of online learnability, establish conditions on the hypothesis class that allow for learning under independent data and adversarial data, respectively. Building upon recent work bridging these extremes, we study sequential decision making under distributional adversaries that can adaptively choose data-generating distributions from a fixed family $U$ and ask when such problems are learnable with sample complexity that behaves like the favorable independent case. We provide a near complete characterization of families $U$ that admit learnability in terms of a notion known as generalized smoothness i.e. a distribution family admits VC-dimension-dependent regret bounds for every finite-VC hypothesis class if and only if it is generalized smooth. Further, we give universal algorithms that achieve low regret under any generalized smooth adversary without explicit knowledge of $U$. Finally, when $U$ is known, we provide refined bounds in terms of a combinatorial parameter, the fragmentation number, that captures how many disjoint regions can carry nontrivial mass under $U$. These results provide a nearly complete understanding of learnability under distributional adversaries. In addition, building upon the surprising connection between online learning and differential privacy, we show that the generalized smoothness also characterizes private learnability under distributional constraints.

Mobile data technologies use ``actigraphs'' to furnish information on health variables as a function of a subject's movement. The advent of wearable devices and related technologies has propelled the creation of health databases consisting of human movement data to conduct research on mobility patterns and health outcomes. Statistical methods for analyzing high-resolution actigraph data depend on the specific inferential context, but the advent of Artificial Intelligence (AI) frameworks require that the methods be congruent to transfer learning and amortization. This article devises amortized Bayesian inference for actigraph time sheets. We pursue a Bayesian approach to ensure full propagation of uncertainty and its quantification using a hierarchical dynamic linear model. We build our analysis around actigraph data from the Physical Activity through Sustainable Transport Approaches in Los Angeles (PASTA-LA) study conducted by the Fielding School of Public Health in the University of California, Los Angeles. Apart from achieving probabilistic imputation of actigraph time sheets, we are also able to statistically learn about the time-varying impact of explanatory variables on the magnitude of acceleration (MAG) for a cohort of subjects.

The recent developments of complex deep learning models have led to unprecedented ability to accurately predict across multiple data representation types. Conformal prediction for uncertainty quantification of these models has risen in popularity, providing adaptive, statistically-valid prediction sets. For classification tasks, conformal methods have typically focused on utilizing logit scores. For pre-trained models, however, this can result in inefficient, overly conservative set sizes when not calibrated towards the target task. We propose DANCE, a doubly locally adaptive nearest-neighbor based conformal algorithm combining two novel nonconformity scores directly using the data's embedded representation. DANCE first fits a task-adaptive kernel regression model from the embedding layer before using the learned kernel space to produce the final prediction sets for uncertainty quantification. We test against state-of-the-art local, task-adapted and zero-shot conformal baselines, demonstrating DANCE's superior blend of set size efficiency and robustness across various datasets.