The Inference Report

May 5, 2026

The financialization of artificial intelligence has entered a new phase. OpenAI extracted $10 billion from a consortium of 19 Wall Street firms while Anthropic closed $1.5 billion from Blackstone, Goldman Sachs, and Hellman & Friedman, then immediately launched a joint venture with those same asset managers to aggressively market enterprise AI products. This is not a go-to-market strategy shift. This is a distribution layer replacement. Venture capital, which built these companies, has been superseded by private equity, which brings patient capital, institutional sales relationships, and the ability to embed AI into existing portfolios rather than pitch it as a standalone product. Cerebras is heading for a blockbuster IPO valued at $26.6 billion or more. The money is flowing to companies positioned as infrastructure or enterprise tools, not consumer products or research labs.

Yet actual product performance is diverging sharply from market narrative. Microsoft announced more than 20 million paying Copilot users, up 33 percent from 15 million in January, but the company is not claiming those users are generating outsized productivity gains or revenue. Image AI models now drive app downloads at 6.5 times the rate of chatbot upgrades, yet most of those downloads do not convert to revenue. Anthropic, which bills itself as the most sophisticated evaluation shop in AI, shipped three quality regressions in Claude Code that its own internal evaluations did not catch. The gap between what AI can do and what it actually does for paying customers is widening, not closing. Capital is flowing into the space anyway because the institutional buyers now have skin in the game and incentive to make the bet work.

OpenAI and Anthropic are racing to embed themselves into enterprise workflows through vertical integration and partnership capital, while IBM and AWS are positioning infrastructure and orchestration as the durable layer beneath that stack. What is absent is any lab announcing a pure model capability that does not come bundled with services, deployment, or infrastructure commitments. The era of selling weights is over. In software engineering benchmarks, Claude Opus 4.6 holds the SWE-rebench top position at 65.3 percent, with gpt-5.2-2025-12-11-medium, GLM-5, and Junie clustered tightly behind it. Yet the divergence between SWE-rebench and Artificial Analysis suggests these benchmarks measure different failure modes: SWE-rebench tests unmodified real pull requests requiring executable validation, while Artificial Analysis appears to weight instruction-following and synthetic tasks more heavily. Developers on GitHub are moving past simple LLM calls toward agent orchestration frameworks that coordinate multiple instances toward specific goals, while simultaneously prioritizing privacy and local control through tools that keep data on device and offer open replacements for SaaS incumbents. The question now is whose orchestration layer becomes the standard, and whether that standard is open or proprietary.

Grant Calloway

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From the WireAll feeds
Research Papers — FocusedAll papers
AFT Neural Function Approximators for 1D Nonlinear Force Laws cs.CE

Nonlinear contacts and friction strongly influence the vibration response of assembled structures, but their accurate numerical treatment is computationally demanding. The harmonic balance method is widely used to compute periodic steady-state responses, yet the required alternating frequency-time scheme becomes costly for nonsmooth and hysteretic nonlinearities and must be repeated throughout the nonlinear solution process. Here we show that this procedure can be replaced by neural networks that directly map displacement Fourier coefficients to nonlinear force coefficients and provide the corresponding Jacobian through automatic differentiation. The surrounding solver and continuation algorithms remain unchanged for the computation of frequency response curves. The neural networks exclusively learn individual nonlinear elements rather than complete system responses. Physics-based nondimensionalization and phase normalization facilitate the learning process and enable a single trained network to cover a wide range of parameter combinations. Building on the cubic spring, unilateral spring, and Jenkins elements considered here, the approach points toward a reusable library of nonlinear-element surrogates that can be combined in arbitrary number and location within a mechanical system. By bypassing the iterative force evaluation in time domain, the method offers favorable computational scaling for high-resolution analyses and systems with many nonlinear elements.

KATOsuper: Surrogate-accelerated neural topology optimization with sensitivity-consistent Fourier neural operators cs.CE

Topology optimization (TO) remains computationally intensive due to repeated finite element analysis (FEA) evaluations required at each iteration. While neural network-based surrogates offer potential acceleration, existing approaches often suffer from gradient inconsistency between predicted objectives and sensitivities, leading to optimization instability. This work presents KATOsuper, an objective-agnostic framework that couples neural-reparameterized topology optimization with a Sensitivity-Consistent Fourier Neural Operator (SC-FNO). The framework employs the forward_split architecture, which derives deployed sensitivities via automatic differentiation through the predicted objective field and thereby preserves consistency between the predicted objective and the gradient used for optimization. The case studies include three 2D benchmark problems and three 3D structures considering compliance or stress minimization. A physics-informed multi-channel input encoding with Fourier position embedding enables resolution-invariant learning, supporting zero-shot extrapolation beyond the training resolution, with useful performance at moderate scaling factors and topology-preserving exploration at up to 64x without retraining. The framework extends to 3D through KATO3D, featuring novel KANConv3D blocks with learnable B-spline activations. KATOsuper demonstrates 15--110x deployment-time speedup over MATLAB baselines while maintaining competitive optimality, with the clearest gains observed in complex 3D and stress-optimization cases. The insight that sensitivity direction matters more than magnitude enables robust optimization even with approximate physics evaluation, extensible to other differentiable physics-driven design objectives.

Human-guided physics-constrained AI agents construct an auditable model of soil-plug evolution cs.CE

Engineering predictions require physical mechanisms to be translated consistently into equations, discretization, code, and validation, yet errors can propagate despite local checks. Artificial-intelligence (AI) agents automate scientific tasks, but coordinating and independently auditing the theory-to-solver process under physical constraints and human oversight remains unresolved. We introduce a human-in-the-loop, physics-constrained multi-agent workflow where human experts define admissible physics and modeling boundaries, while agents retrieve evidence, derive equations, implement solvers, and audit the theory-to-code chain. Applied to soil-plug evolution during suction-caisson installation, the workflow generated and audited 6 formulations in 2.9 h of agent execution once physical knowledge and inputs were prepared. Among these formulations, adding seepage-driven soil void-ratio evolution to the geometric baseline reduced mean absolute final-heave error from 58.4% to 9.0% across 14 profiles; the selected model further incorporated near-wall dilation and achieved mean absolute percentage errors of 12.4% across 9 final-state cases and 4.2% at the endpoints of 5 process histories. Beyond predictive performance, blinded replay recovered all 9 target problems, while an independent audit uncovered 5 implementation problems after 36 predefined checks had passed. Overall, this work extends multi-agent AI beyond task automation toward human-governed engineering solvers.

Partitioned Co-Simulation for CAD-integrated Vibroacoustic Problems in Unbounded Domains cs.CE

Vibroacoustic analysis often requires coupling structural and acoustic solvers based on different numerical formulations and discretizations, making monolithic implementations intrusive and limiting software modularity and reuse. This work presents a partitioned co-simulation framework for exterior vibroacoustic analysis that couples an Isogeometric boundary representation analysis (IBRA) structural solver with an isogeometric boundary element method (IGA-BEM) acoustic solver. The methodology operates directly on the computer-aided design (CAD) boundary representation, preserving the exact geometry throughout the analysis and supporting both weak and strong coupling between non-conforming discretizations. A key contribution is the extension of the Aitken dynamic relaxation and Interface Quasi-Newton with Inverse Least-Squares (IQN-ILS) convergence accelerators to complex-valued interface quantities, allowing the coupling iterations to account directly for both amplitude and phase information. The approach is validated using one-way and two-way coupled vibroacoustic benchmark problems involving thin-shell structures and exterior acoustic domains. The results show excellent agreement with monolithic reference solutions, while the proposed complex-valued convergence accelerators improve the robustness and convergence behavior of the strongly coupled solution procedure without compromising solution accuracy. These results demonstrate that the proposed approach provides an accurate, robust, and modular approach for CAD-integrated frequency-domain vibroacoustic analysis.

A Non-intrusive Approach for the Imposition of Strong Dirichlet Boundary Conditions in Unfitted Boundary Meshes cs.CE

The enforcement of essential boundary conditions is a fundamental challenge in unfitted boundary methods. This paper presents a non-intrusive, black-box strategy for imposing such conditions in unfitted meshes. The approach is intended for situations where the user does not have access to the solver's source code or its mathematical formulation, which is often the case when using commercial software. The proposed algorithm allows solvers originally designed for body-fitted meshes to be used in unfitted cases, provided that four conditions are satisfied: (i) the solver must support user customization by means of scripting, (ii) allow the imposition of Dirichlet boundary conditions at the node level through scripting, (iii) permit the deactivation of elements outside the physical domain, and (iv) provide access to the solution gradient within active elements. The last condition can also be satisfied by externally reconstructing the gradient from nodal values and connectivity information, provided the element formulation is known, making it optional in practice. These requirements are very fair demands and are satisfied by the vast majority of production-ready, possibly commercial, codes. In the current work, we show the application of this non-intrusive algorithm in the context of the Finite Element Method (FEM) and Isogeometric Analysis (IGA) discretizations, demonstrating optimal $L^2$-norm error convergence. This is demonstrated using the Kratos Multiphysics code (release \texttt{v10.1}) \emph{from the user API, simply leveraging the capabilities mentioned above.}

Geometric organization of olfactory descriptor data in the Poincaré disk cs.CE

Odor quality is commonly represented using high dimensional descriptor profiles, yet their low dimensional organization remains unclear. We investigated whether a two-dimensional hyperbolic embedding can provide an interpretable representation of this structure. We applied hyperbolic metric multidimensional scaling to two complementary datasets: 480 Sagar rating profiles from three participants rating 160 odorants on 15 continuous descriptors, and 4983 GoodScents--Leffingwell molecules annotated with 138 binary descriptors. The embeddings substantially preserved pairwise descriptor distances, supporting subsequent analyses of radial and angular organization. In Sagar, rating profile entropy was strongly and negatively associated with hyperbolic radius, with diffuse profiles closer to the center and concentrated profiles closer to the boundary. This radial organization emerged primarily at the level of the full descriptor profile, rather than any individual descriptor, and remained robust across alternative descriptor representations, participant specific analyses, and averaged ratings. Sweet, musky, fruity, pleasantness showed the strongest directional trends. In GoodScents--Leffingwell, active label entropy, reflecting descriptor multiplicity, increased with radius, whereas orthogonalized descriptor entropy, reflecting spread across orthogonal modes, decreased with radius. Related binary descriptors occupied coherent localized high-density regions. These findings reveal complementary radial and angular organization in the hyperbolic representation of olfactory descriptor data. They support hyperbolic mapping as an interpretable descriptive framework in which radius summarizes global profile properties, while the angular component captures continuous descriptor gradients and categorical organization.

BenchmarksFull tables
Artificial AnalysisIntelligence Index

Composite score across coding, math, and reasoning

#ModelScoretok/s$/1M
1GPT-5.560.274$11.25
2Claude Opus 4.757.358$10.94
3Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview57.2130$4.50
4GPT-5.456.886$5.63
5Kimi K2.653.930$1.71
SWE-rebench

Agentic coding on real-world software engineering tasks

#ModelScore
1Claude Opus 4.665.3%
2gpt-5.2-2025-12-11-medium64.4%
3GLM-562.8%
4Junie62.8%
5gpt-5.4-2026-03-05-medium62.8%