The Inference Report

April 7, 2026

OpenAI is moving upstream into policy and institutional influence while the real competitive pressure is consolidating around infrastructure control and inference optimization, a split that reveals where actual defensibility lies in AI systems.

The gap between capability and constraint is widening across every layer. GEN-1 robotics hit 99 percent reliability on novel tasks and researchers cut AI energy use by 100x while improving accuracy, but these engineering wins sit atop a fragile physical layer. Data centers remain vulnerable to missiles. North Korea compromised npm. Anthropic's own security tool carried a CVE. The companies building models are making strategic bets that assume they can build faster than adversaries can break: Intel doubling down on advanced chip packaging, Xoople raising 130 million to map Earth for AI infrastructure, Samsung forecasting record profits despite the US tech sector shedding 15,000 jobs in March. The story underneath is not about AI capability anymore. It's about who controls the chips, the power, the real estate, the supply chains, and whether the companies that built the models can actually defend what they've built.

The infrastructure layer is where differentiation is moving. OpenAI alums launched Zero Shot to raise 100 million specifically for the infrastructure and tools layer. AMD is publishing kernel optimization guides and inference acceleration techniques. Anthropic is locking in compute partnerships with Google and Broadcom at scale. GitHub's developer ecosystem is consolidating around local-first inference, agent orchestration, and code understanding, with tools like Ollama removing friction from deployment and agents like Goose operating autonomously across multiple LLM providers. Meanwhile, Claude Opus 4.6 maintains its lead on SWE-rebench at 65.3 percent, but the top tier has consolidated into a narrow band where the gap between first and fifth place is 2.8 percentage points. Builders are moving toward problems with actual friction and willingness to pay, away from the hype cycle. The question now is whether the companies that control the models can maintain margin when the value is migrating toward whoever owns the infrastructure that keeps the models running when the grid is contested.

Grant Calloway

AI LabsAll labs
From the WireAll feeds
Research Papers — FocusedAll papers
Confidence-Calibrated Inference Expansion for Evaluator-Guided Test-Time Reasoning cs.AI

Evaluator-guided reasoning presents a local control problem at every step: trust the current answer, return a fallback, or spend more inference. We formulate this choice as a compute-aware three-action controller, scoring terminal actions by predicted answer success and expansion by a rollout-based continuation-success surrogate, with compute cost priced explicitly. A local action-gap analysis characterizes when score errors can change a decision, while an expected regret bound accounts for errors along the realized expansion path. Guided by this analysis, we learn and calibrate action-specific confidence estimates, with local uncertainty penalties for ambiguous decisions. On held-out width expansion and revision tasks, the controller improves observed utility over calibration-selected fixed policies while reducing normalized online compute by about 30% and 16%, respectively. Across four Qwen3-8B seeds, compute is lower than fitted Q in both settings, while utility differences are small and mixed. The results frame evaluator-guided reasoning as resource allocation under uncertainty, rather than a uniformly stronger reasoner.

Evolving Together, Failing Apart: The Skill-Policy Co-evolution Trap in Self-Improving Agents cs.AI

Skill-policy co-evolution, in which an agent's policy model and its skill bank improve each other during training, is a promising paradigm for self-improving agents. Current evaluations score the co-evolved policy on the final bank it trained with (the delivered bank). After deployment, however, skills may be rewritten, added or removed more frequently than the policy model is retrained, leaving the policy to operate on a drifted skill bank that neither the training objective nor existing evaluation protocols address. In this paper, we first establish, through theoretical and empirical analysis, that the fragility hidden by this blind spot is not incidental. The acceptance rule these methods share (cooperative acceptance) ties a policy's competence to the bank it co-evolved with, leaving it fragile once skills drift, regardless of the implementation; empirically, sensitivity to skill drift grows as co-evolution training proceeds. We therefore introduce the CO-evolution Drift Audit (CODA), a deployment-oriented evaluation protocol that simulates skill drift and, alongside success rate under worst-case drift, introduces two new metrics: a consistency rate under meaning-preserving edits and a resistance rate to corrupted skills. Across four co-evolution methods and five benchmarks (six settings), worst-case success is 5-13 points below the peak measured for each delivered pair, erasing 52-93% of the delivered bank's gain over the no-skill baseline. CODA thus reframes the target of co-evolution, from peak performance on the co-evolved bank to the ability to harness skills however they evolve, and provides a shared standard against which future methods can be audited.

Anticipatory Commonsense with Moving Objects: An ASP-Based Framework for Predictive Reasoning with Interacting Trajectories cs.AI

We present a general declarative framework for anticipatory reasoning about interactive motion in complex dynamic environments. Our focus is on (explainable) anticipatory space-time mental model formation at a semantic level to heuristically guide low-level motion computation. Our method is hybrid, modular and elaboration tolerant integrating: 1) An ASP model characterising the dynamics of interactive motion trajectories; 2) Semantically-guided prediction for deriving `branching trajectory futures'; and 3) An energy-based {optimisation} model to evaluate, rank and filter anticipations. We evaluate with the Argoverse 2 benchmark, where each anticipated trajectory carries an explicit, inspectable event-level hypothesis, unlike end-to-end stochastic prediction.

A Multi-Tiered AI Accessibility Model (MAIAM): Proportionate Access and Capability Limits for Comprehensive Frontier AI Safety cs.AI

Most debate about releasing capable AI systems treats the choice as binary: keep the model behind an API, or publish the weights. That framing runs together two separate decisions. One is how capable a system may become. The other is who may obtain a given capability, and on what terms. This paper is about the second decision. We propose a Multi-Tiered AI Accessibility Model (MAIAM) that sorts access by purpose, safety, and capability instead of by release artifact. Tier 1, AI for Learning, is broadly accessible and deliberately capability-bounded. Tier 2, AI for Exploration, serves research and development under registration, identity, and usage controls that tighten as capability rises. Tier 3, Full-Scale Frontier AI, is available only through structured, recorded, and accountable access. The principle behind the tiers is that accessibility should be proportional to capability, safety, and risk. We show why publishing frontier-class weights forfeits every safety lever a developer has after release, and, using evidence that safety fine-tuning can be stripped from open weights for a few hundred dollars, why an evaluation of the base model says little about its derivatives. We give criteria for assigning a system to a tier along capability, autonomy, domain-consequence, and usage/safety axes, and combine MAIAM with the SAFE AI Operating Point into a two-part framework: a Capability Boundary that fixes the safety limits not to be crossed, and an Accessibility Boundary that fixes who may obtain a capability below that limit. Capability limits alone do not make AI safe; a tiered access regime administered by regulating bodies is also needed.

Defining and Generating Compositional Structure cs.AI

Compositional structure is pervasive in nature and across scales: atoms combine into molecules, molecules into cells, and cells into organisms, while further compositional hierarchies appear within each level. More broadly, compositionality, the reuse and recombination of parts into novel structures, is a fundamental source of interesting complexity in both natural and artificial systems. Yet despite its importance, and despite our apparent ease in recognizing it, mathematical accounts capturing what we intuitively mean by compositional structure remain limited. Here, we fill this gap by formalizing a simple idea: compositional structure emerges when parts, considered together, reveal shared structure that is not captured when those parts are modeled separately. We express this idea using algorithmic information theory, the mathematics of information and compression, which provides a natural way to identify structure in arbitrary data without specifying in advance what that structure must look like. Applied across scales, our definition informs where and how compositional structure emerges within an object. Using tractable approximations, we then invert the framework to generate compositional objects: we specify the desired form of their compositional structure without prescribing their particular content, and optimize directly over strings and images. The resulting objects exhibit readily recognizable hierarchical reuse and part-whole organization, suggesting that the definition captures compositional structure rather than merely complexity, regularity, or shared information. Finally, we discuss implications for machine learning, including a new perspective on depth in neural architectures and principles for constructing compositional data curricula capable of supporting open-ended learning.

SkillNEO: Non-Elitist Evolutionary Optimization of Agent Skills cs.AI

Agent skills turn procedural knowledge into reusable artifacts, allowing LLM agents to accumulate and refine expertise through experience. Building on this, skill evolution iteratively improves skills using execution feedback. However, improvement may require several interdependent edits, so low-reward versions can still be worth developing. Requiring immediate reward gains can discard useful partial repairs before their benefits emerge. Non-elitist evolution allows new versions to receive further edits despite scoring below earlier ones. For agent skills, this calls for evidence of what to preserve and repair next. We introduce SkillNEO (Non-Elitist Evolutionary Optimization for Agent Skills), which separately selects a version to use and versions to keep improving. Comparing how related versions perform the same task reveals working steps to preserve and remaining failures to fix. It can also revisit and revise earlier versions using later evidence. Across 86 SkillsBench tasks in eight domains, including software engineering and office work, SkillNEO raises GPT-5.4 Mini's average reward from 49.1% to 66.4%, within GPT-5.5 and GPT-5.6 Luna's original-skill range. Mini executes tasks, proposes revisions, and edits skills; final evaluation uses the same task instances. Gains span all eight domains. The same skills improve stronger models without further editing. On the 41 tasks with modified skills, reuse improves Luna by 10.5 percentage points and places GPT-5.5 10.6 points above its published original-skill reference. Execution records show these skills can benefit stronger models even when Mini still fails some task requirements. Search histories also show lower-scoring versions leading to skills ultimately selected for use. Together, these findings show that skill evolution can turn a weaker model's partial progress into reusable procedural knowledge for improving more capable agents.

BenchmarksFull tables
Artificial AnalysisIntelligence Index

Composite score across coding, math, and reasoning

#ModelScoretok/s$/1M
1GPT-5.457.282$5.63
2Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview57.2142$4.50
3GPT-5.3 Codex5481$4.81
4Claude Opus 4.65354$10.00
5Claude Sonnet 4.651.766$6.00
SWE-rebench

Agentic coding on real-world software engineering tasks

#ModelScore
1Claude Opus 4.665.3%
2gpt-5.2-2025-12-11-medium64.4%
3GLM-562.8%
4gpt-5.4-2026-03-05-medium62.8%
5Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview62.3%