The Inference Report

November 4, 2026

The infrastructure bill for AI is coming due, and the political, financial, and technical systems that were supposed to support it are beginning to fracture under the weight of their own ambitions. Data centers are consuming power faster than grids can supply it, schools face binary choices between Google and AI tools that amount to no choice at all, and Democratic governors in Texas, Georgia, and Ohio won elections partly on stopping data center buildouts. Palantir's commercial business has overtaken its government work for the first time, signaling where capital now flows, while Anthropic watches its compute margins deteriorate even as demand surges and Fal doubles its valuation to $16 billion on inference demand alone. The infrastructure meant to democratize AI is instead concentrating power, raising barriers to entry, and forcing uncomfortable tradeoffs at every layer.

The political and financial resistance is hardening. Russia buried its digital infrastructure after drone strikes exposed it. Oracle canceled a $7 billion Tencent deal under Trump pressure. Investors are demanding higher returns to finance the data center boom, which means capital costs are rising just as operational costs refuse to come down. The UK's Financial Times has begun asking whether the current moment carries darker historical echoes of empire-era capitalist mobilization, and whether we are ready for an AI bust. Accenture published an AI research paper full of hallucinations and blamed human error, a symptom of broader reliability problems that no amount of capital can fix.

The technical layer reveals deeper fragmentation. Anthropic released FlashProve, a cryptographic proof system to verify that an AI response actually came from a specific model without revealing its weights, addressing a fundamental problem of trust at scale. Six out of every ten AI shopping recommendations get rejected by consumers, suggesting the market cannot absorb what the infrastructure produces. Amazon rewrote its engineering playbook to focus on customer results rather than AI adoption metrics, a quiet acknowledgment that AI-for-AI's sake is not the goal. The builders are moving faster than infrastructure can support, faster than markets can absorb, and faster than anyone has solved the technical problems of reliability and verification. The question is no longer whether AI works in isolation. It is whether the economics of running it at scale work, whether the politics will tolerate it, and whether the field can solve problems of trust and control before the capital runs out.

Across labs and research, the field is consolidating into specialized positions rather than racing toward general capability. OpenAI is distributing existing capabilities into customer workflows while installing political infrastructure. Google DeepMind and NVIDIA are moving into drug discovery and semiconductor manufacturing, domains where adoption requires expertise and switching costs are high. Hugging Face has accepted it will not win the model race and is building the scaffolding others will use. Research clusters around three patterns: extracting compact representations from pretrained models, improving long-horizon reasoning for agents, and rigorous evaluation under realistic constraints that expose gaps between reported metrics and actual performance. Multiple papers deliberately stress-test systems against clinical protocols, actual weather alerts, mislabeled datasets, and find that standard metrics systematically misrepresent performance. Neither the SWE-rebench nor Artificial Analysis leaderboards show qualitative shifts in coding capability, with top models clustered within tight confidence intervals. GitHub's trending repos reflect the same pragmatism: developers are building persistent state management for agents, optimizing inference at the hardware boundary, and solving specific problems without adding layers. The infrastructure play has hit resistance at scale, and the field is responding not with breakthroughs but with consolidation, specialization, and honest accounting of what actually works under real constraints.

Grant Calloway

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Research PapersAll papers
DreamX: Video Diffusion Model is a Universal Latent Action Learner cs.CV

Learning a universal action representation from video requires modeling dynamics that are consistent across different executions of the same action yet invariant to changes in embodiment and appearance. Existing latent action models infer actions from visual transitions, but their representations often entangle the underlying action with irrelevant visual variations, limiting transfer across embodiments. We introduce DreamX, which repurposes a pretrained video diffusion model as a universal latent action learner. Our approach extracts compact latent actions from the video model's rich spatiotemporal features, compressing each latent video frame by $\boldsymbol{300\times}$ ($\boldsymbol{1{,}200 \rightarrow 4}$ tokens). In addition, by leveraging the video model's generative prior, these latent actions capture action-relevant dynamics disentangled from visual appearance. The resulting latent space serves as a shared action interface across embodiments (human and robot), environments, and action parameterizations. On LARY-Bench, DreamX achieves state-of-the-art performance among latent action models. Moreover, actions encoded in one setting remain effective in another: the latent space supports any-to-any video transfer and zero-shot action transfer across diverse embodiments and environments. Furthermore, this shared interface also enables policy learning in a compact latent action space, reducing the computational cost of video-diffusion-based policies.

From Autonomous Agents to Cognitive Symbionts: Toward AI-Augmented Human Intelligence cs.CL

For a decade, progress in artificial intelligence has been measured by how much a machine can do on its own. Large foundation models now write code and run multistep tasks, and personal agents act on a person's behalf. Yet people still forget what they once knew, miss what they are not looking at, fail to find the right words, and face hard choices without the benefit of their own history, because the machine that could help stands outside the situation. As AI moves into the physical world, attention has settled on one kind of intelligent individual, the embodied robot; we argue that the era of Physical AI holds a second kind of equal importance, the person augmented by AI. Alongside artificial general intelligence, which asks how intelligent a machine can be, stands AI-augmented human intelligence (AHI), which asks how much intelligence a machine can enable in a particular person. Realizing it calls for a new kind of system, a cognitive symbiont: a lifelong, embedded, real-time, private, low-friction, and proactive companion that senses what the person senses through external devices, keeps their context across years, models their situation and their mind, takes part in their thinking at the right moment, carries out everyday tasks with their context, and keeps learning the person as both change. We give the paradigm a conceptual core, the cognitive gap between what a person could bring to a situation and what they can hold in working memory, and organize its design space as a symbiosis loop of sensing, keeping, understanding, living alongside, acting for and thinking with the person, and growing, enclosed by a personal runtime and by trust. Because a symbiont changes what a person can do in front of others, it also raises risks of a new kind, from covert assistance in examinations to pressure on everyone to adopt it, and we treat their governance as part of the paradigm.

Aligning Language Models with General Preferences: An Empirical Study of Direct Nash Optimization cs.LG

Direct Nash Optimization (DNO) aligns a language model to a general preference function by approximating the Nash equilibrium of a two-player preference game. Its practical variant, DNO-Prct, iterates on-policy sampling, LLM-based rating of the samples together with a teacher's gold response, large-margin preference-pair selection and a DPO-style contrastive update. We re-implement DNO-Prct independently and study it on two open-weight instruct models, Llama 3.1 8B Instruct and Mistral 7B Instruct v0.1, with GPT-4o or a larger open-weight model of the same family as the annotator. On AlpacaEval 2.0 with GPT-4o as judge, three iterations raise the length-controlled (LC) win rate against GPT-4o from 31.7% to 45.3% for Llama and from 6.8% to 18.4% for Mistral, and the tuned 8B model scores above Llama 3.1 70B Instruct on every reported win rate. With same-family open-weight annotators, the runs retain 62% (Llama) and 82% (Mistral) of the LC gain achieved with GPT-4o as annotator, so the rating step does not require a proprietary model. In a separate ablation configuration, variants that remove the gold responses, remove the data look-back, or accept only teacher-preferred pairs score 6 to 10 LC points below the full procedure, whereas varying the number of on-policy samples per prompt (1 to 7) moves the LC win rate by at most 2.1 points, and a margin sweep (1 to 5) run in its own pipeline by at most 2.4 points. We also report the cost of the pipeline and where the practical algorithm departs from the theory it approximates. All results are single runs, and GPT-4o is both the teacher and the evaluation judge; we discuss what this implies for the reported gains.

PolicyIK: High-Precision Inverse Kinematics for Robot Arms with Reinforcement Learning cs.RO

Inverse kinematics (IK) converts end-effector pose commands into joint motion, and many vision-language-action (VLA) policies rely on it to act on a given arm and to transfer across embodiments. Precise IK remains laborious: redundancy and singularities complicate the inverse mapping, execution depends on hand-tuned controllers, and training data on physical robots are costly to collect. We present PolicyIK, a goal-conditioned reinforcement learning policy for high-precision IK. It updates joint-position references from pose feedback and observes its accumulated reference relative to the measured joints, so it can retain the offset that the position controller needs at rest. Two-scale pose errors with an error-dependent action gain resolve millimeter residuals while preserving large motions. Progress and dwell rewards teach it to both reach the tolerance and stay within it. In simulation, a single attempt by the trained PPO policy keeps the mean errors over the final second within 1 mm and 0.2° on 93.5% of held-out tasks, and a deployment protocol raises success to 98.9%. When trained directly on a physical arm with an off-policy RL learner, PolicyIK achieves higher reaching and holding success than all four classical IK controllers under the same time budgets. In simulated pick-and-place, PolicyIK executes the end-effector commands of the $π_{0.5}$ VLA policy with 95.7% success. These results show that reinforcement learning can provide high-precision inverse kinematics for robot arms. Code is available at https://github.com/Tinaliu0123/PolicyIK.

GUILD: Guided Iterative Data Collection for Imitation Learning cs.RO

Imitation learning policies in robotics are trained on datasets collected through costly real-world teleoperation. Often, the data-collection process is unguided, relying on the teleoperator's intuition, resulting in data that contributes little to overall policy performance. Recent work has shown that curating such unguided datasets can substantially improve policy performance, but these approaches operate by filtering existing datasets after collection and therefore do not prevent the acquisition of uninformative data. In this work, we propose GUILD, a novel Guided Data Collection (GDC) method that actively reasons about which data should be collected to maximize downstream policy performance. We introduce an iterative framework that alternates between 1) task proposal and data collection and 2) data evaluation to close the loop. For task proposal, we leverage semantic priors from vision-language models to identify relevant environments, object configurations, and goals for data collection. However, since semantic relevance does not imply policy improvement, we perform data evaluation. By leveraging predictive data attribution we approximate how the collected trajectories influence policy performance on a target deployment setting. This signal is then used as feedback to guide subsequent data collection, closing the data collection loop. We evaluate our approach in simulation and real robot settings, demonstrating that guided data collection substantially improves sample efficiency and deployment performance compared to passive data collection strategies, multiple baselines and experienced roboticists. More information at https://robin-lab.cs.utexas.edu/guild2026/

Suppressing Misaligned Behaviors in Language Models, Durably cs.CL

Undesired model behaviors can emerge or re-emerge at any stage of training. Once observed, how effectively can we suppress them? To study this question, we first construct two model organisms--language models deliberately trained to exhibit a specific misalignment--that differ in what triggers the behavior. The narrow-trigger organism misbehaves only when the prompt contains a specific cue: it cheats on multiple-choice questions by following a planted hint that points to a wrong answer, and behaves normally otherwise. The broad-trigger organism has no such cue: after fine-tuning on insecure code, it gives harmful responses across a wide range of open-ended prompts. We then formalize post-hoc behavioral suppression and evaluate methods along three criteria: immediate suppression of the target behavior, durability under further training, and preservation of general capability. We compare standard methods--SFT, GRPO, and gradient-ascent unlearning--along these dimensions. Building on prior work on alignment shallowness, we hypothesize that more durable suppression requires the ability to recover from a wider range of misalignment states. We introduce Prefix-Expanded Adversarial Reinforcement Learning (PEARL), a GRPO variant that augments rollouts with continuations from intermediate states sampled along cached organism trajectories. Across both organism settings and two model families (Qwen3-4B, GPT-OSS-20B), PEARL achieves strong immediate suppression while preserving task accuracy, and remains durable under further fine-tuning on either the organism's data or unrelated data. It obtains the greatest benefit when the undesirable behavior is broad and cannot be addressed through targeted SFT. Together, our framework and method offer a step toward more durable post-hoc removal of undesired behaviors.

BenchmarksFull tables
Artificial AnalysisIntelligence Index

Composite score across coding, math, and reasoning

#ModelScoretok/s$/1M
1Gemini 4 Carbon6089$8.00
2Claude Opus 5.559.196$8.00
3GPT-6 Astra56.951$20.00
4GPT-6.1 Sol54.661$4.00
5Claude Sonnet 5.554.5133$4.00
SWE-rebench

Agentic coding on real-world software engineering tasks

#ModelScore
1AnthropicFable 5 [high]Model64.5%± 1.41%
2GrokGrok 4.5 [high]Model63.8%± 0.60%
3AnthropicOpus 5 [high]Model63.4%± 1.35%
4Z.aiGLM-5.2 [high]Model62.9%± 1.19%
5OpenAIGPT-5.6 Sol [medium]Model62.3%± 1.83%