"When the underlying economics don't work, the only move left is to build bigger and hope the math changes." That sentence from this week's capital markets rout captures the central contradiction animating AI's next phase: the infrastructure is being built at scale while the products that justify it remain marginal, and the gap between these two realities is narrowing fast.
The market has already registered the problem. Major tech firms shed nearly $900 billion in a single rout over soaring AI spending, yet OpenAI cut its funding target from $30 billion to $20 billion and Anthropic faces a junk rating after its IPO. Nvidia is now cosigning loans for data center projects because investors grew nervous. Boom Supersonic abandoned its airliner business to chase power contracts for AI infrastructure. The capital is flowing, but the confidence is cracking. DoorDash received only several hundred orders from AI agents despite months of promotion and now admits its own deployment flopped. Cursor's backdoor breach went undetected for twelve hours despite Anthropic's verified status. Ollie, a privacy-focused AI assistant, is shutting down as the market floods with undifferentiated competitors. The pattern across product attempts is consistent: AI works where it reduces friction in existing workflows or exploits regulatory gaps. It fails where it requires users to change behavior or trust a new interface. Coding agents are cheaper to run than they were six months ago, with Microsoft's TokenEconomizer cutting costs by 31 percent and Samaya AI's Sterling beating Claude Fable 5.1 at 11 times lower cost. Cost is dropping. Adoption is not.
The infrastructure response, meanwhile, is accelerating. Fujifilm is boosting tape production fivefold as AI archiving demand surges. Google launched a TPU in space and ran a Gemma 4 model at orbit. Runware is building prefabricated data center factories. On the software side, GitHub's trending repositories show consolidation around agent skills frameworks and execution infrastructure: claude-mem for persistent context across agent runs, CopilotKit for isolated compute surfaces, dstack for unified orchestration. The builders are solving for memory, observability, and orchestration rather than model capability. Tyler Shultz, the Theranos whistleblower, warned this week that the AI boom is a great opportunity to deceive people. Companies with negative cash flow are raising capital at trillion-dollar valuations. The question is whether the infrastructure gets built fast enough to justify the capital before the credit markets close the door entirely.
Grant Calloway
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly asked to judge whether a news article is true, and their stated confidence is often taken at face value. We test what happens to that confidence when an article's writing style, but not its facts, is manipulated, as in recent \emph{style attacks} on fake-news detectors. Tracing how the prediction and its confidence form layer by layer inside the network, we study three model families (LLaMA-3-8B, Qwen2.5-7B, Mistral-7B) on three fake-news benchmarks, and find the same three patterns in every model--dataset pairing. First, on the original articles the models are competent and largely honest judges: they settle on an answer, briefly become overconfident, and then correct their confidence in the final layers. Second, style-rewritten articles break this self-correction: the models become far less accurate, under the strongest attack, worse than random guessing, yet remain just as confident, so they are \emph{confidently wrong} precisely when a warning is most needed. Third, nearly all of the damage comes from rewriting into sensational or emotionally charged styles, while sober, neutral rewrites leave the models' honesty largely intact. The practical implication is that an LLM's confidence about veracity cannot be trusted as a safety signal when an article's style may have been manipulated.
EmbeddingGemma-300M is a small open embedder whose tokenizer represents every Tajik letter, and as released it is weak at Tajik retrieval: on our Tajik law test the right passage is in its top ten results for 49.3% of questions, on tax documents for 45.9%, and on the human-written Belebele Tajik set for 69.8%, against 98.6% on the Russian version of the same set. We present Saidzoda-Tajik-EmbeddingGemma-300M, the same model fully fine-tuned for one epoch on 235,140 question and passage pairs written by our own Tajik language model for laws, tax documents, Wikipedia and web text, with the same mined hard negatives, English and Russian replay, loss, global batch, learning rate and epoch as our earlier Saidzoda-Tajik-E5-Large (arXiv:2611.00592) and BGE-M3 models. After training, law reaches 92.4% and tax 91.7%; on Belebele, the one test written by people, recall@10 rises from 69.8% to 92.6% and the first result is right for 76.6% of questions instead of 51.7%. A checkpoint at step 100 of 466 already holds 88% of the law gain at recall@10. At recall@10 the result is no more than 2.8 points below the two 560M models trained on the same pairs on law, tax and Wikipedia, within the intervals, with 768-dimensional vectors and about half their parameters; at recall@1, for which we have no intervals, it stays 7.0 points behind the E5 model on Belebele. The cost is a drop of 3.0 and 2.8 points in Russian and English recall@1, larger than for the two earlier models. We also report that, according to our run notes, a bfloat16 test run produced a non-finite loss at step 3 which the training framework logged as zero, so training was done in fp32. Our generated test questions come from the same model as the training questions, so we treat those scores as an upper limit until questions written by Tajik speakers exist.
Self-supervised speech models (S3Ms) encode a rich hierarchy of acoustic, prosodic, and phonetic information, yet when and where it emerges during pretraining remains unclear. We train frozen-encoder probes on every Transformer layer across pretraining checkpoints of two matched models: HuBERT-Base, whose stage 2 is a separately initialized model trained on new pseudo-label targets, and single-objective wav2vec 2.0-Base. Our five tasks span an acoustic-to-abstract gradient: absolute pitch (F0), speaker-relative pitch, lexical stress, phoneme boundaries, and 38-way phoneme identity. Acoustic-prosodic cues and phone boundaries are decodable from the earliest checkpoints and barely shift across layers, whereas phoneme identity is constructed during pretraining, re-localizing to upper-middle layers under HuBERT's stage-2 targets at a matched update count. Acquisition order therefore tracks abstraction from the acoustic surface, not the segmental/suprasegmental distinction, extending to prosody an account established for phonetic, lexical and syntactic structure; the no-switch wav2vec 2.0 shows no comparable re-localization.
This paper contains examples of stereotypes about veterans and displaced people that may be offensive or distressing. Social bias benchmarks for language models commonly examine categories such as gender, race, and religion, often drawn from lists of legally protected characteristics. Veterans and internally displaced people (IDPs) fall outside these lists, and stereotypes about them, which can undermine access to employment, housing, and social participation, remain largely absent from language model evaluation. We introduce WarBias, a Ukrainian--English benchmark of stereotypes about these two groups. Built from a taxonomy of 120 stereotype claims grounded in research and monitoring reports, WarBias contains 1,007 stereotype--counter-stereotype--unrelated sentence triplets and 240 multiple-choice questions per language. A Ukrainian language model selected in a blinded human pilot generated the Ukrainian triplets. At least two independent annotators reviewed each triplet in the annotation cohort. The authors revised items in response to the reviews, and the final release was machine-translated into English. Each claim carries a human severity rating. In a baseline evaluation of six models, four prefer stereotypical Ukrainian sentences about at least one group, most strongly about IDPs, while English scores are mostly balanced. WarBias supports complementary evaluations of stereotypical preferences and context-sensitive judgments, and provides paired forget/retain material for unlearning-based bias mitigation. We document the benchmark's construction, intended uses, and limitations, and offer its construction method as a template for analogous benchmarks in other conflict-affected societies.
Reusable key-value (KV) memory avoids repeatedly prefilling retrieved text, but stored and injected memories do not necessarily become usable evidence. We present EASE-KV, a controlled framework for understanding this gap under fixed candidates and a frozen language model. EASE-KV separates three interfaces: whether required relations are preserved during encoding, whether preserved memories receive appropriate influence during allocation, and whether outcome supervision can identify useful allocations. Matched experiments show that causal encoding improves compositional accuracy by 25.0 percentage points over block-diagonal encoding, while the tested inference-time bridging methods fail to recover the lost contextual information. With unchanged stored states, diagnostic evidence-guided allocation improves LongMemEval accuracy from 31.2% to 38.4%, demonstrating that memory influence can be controlled without re-encoding. However, controllability does not guarantee learnability: binary correctness provides informative reward contrast for 53.0% of sampled query groups, compared with 73.6% under the evaluated shaped-reward setting. These findings show that effective KV memory requires more than retrieval and injection: the required relations must be encoded, preserved memories must receive appropriate influence, and supervision must distinguish better allocations from worse ones.
AI agents deployed on the open web are becoming more capable of performing actions that may breach contractual provisions and violate computer security laws. In this paper, we introduce ScrapeBench, the first agentic benchmark for empirically evaluating the legal compliance of AI agents with website scraping policies, namely terms of service (ToS) and robots.txt directives. Across widely used closed-weight and open-weight AI agents, we find that most agents exhibit low compliance rates (< 5%) when instructed to scrape websites in our sample of 1,626 popular websites that explicitly prohibit scraping. In addition, we observe that even where AI agents actively check the applicable ToS and robots.txt, they continue to exhibit low compliance rates. Conversely, in our sample of 269 websites that do not prohibit scraping, we observe that agents sometimes refuse to scrape despite it being lawful, such as Claude Opus 4.6 exhibiting an over-refusal rate of 98.5%. Our human baseline experiments (n = 180 participants) suggest that humans exhibit compliance rates comparable to AI agents but over-refuse at much higher rates.
Composite score across coding, math, and reasoning
| # | Model | Score | tok/s | $/1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gemini 4 Carbon | 59.4 | 88 | $8.00 |
| 2 | Claude Opus 5.5 | 58.4 | 97 | $8.00 |
| 3 | GPT-6 Astra | 56.9 | 81 | $20.00 |
| 4 | GPT-6.1 Sol | 54.5 | 77 | $4.00 |
| 5 | Claude Sonnet 5.5 | 54.2 | 136 | $4.00 |
Agentic coding on real-world software engineering tasks
| # | Model | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | AnthropicFable 5 [high]Model | 64.5%± 1.41% |
| 2 | GrokGrok 4.5 [high]Model | 63.8%± 0.60% |
| 3 | AnthropicOpus 5 [high]Model | 63.4%± 1.35% |
| 4 | Z.aiGLM-5.2 [high]Model | 62.9%± 1.19% |
| 5 | OpenAIGPT-5.6 Sol [medium]Model | 62.3%± 1.83% |
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