The Inference Report

October 27, 2026

The market is racing ahead of its own ability to secure, govern, and operate what it is building. Anthropic's IPO filing dominates the cycle, but the real story is not the company's valuation or governance structure but a system under strain: enterprises deploying AI agents across APIs while security researchers demonstrate those same agents can be tricked by malicious files in a Downloads folder; capital flowing unidirectionally toward data center buildout while highway thieves steal millions in equipment bound for those facilities; and regulators asking questions about autonomous systems businesses are already using.

The capital flow is massive and directional. SpaceX locked in a $40 billion GPU financing deal with Apollo. Microsoft is spending up to $175 billion on AI infrastructure this year while offering buyouts to 60,000 employees. Meta plans a $95 billion stock offering to bankroll AI expansion. Anthropic's S-1 filing reveals that over half its six-figure customers now use both Claude Platform and its first-party applications, a cross-selling model designed for stickiness. The unusual governance structure preserves founder control and the company's stated AI safety mission as a structural defense against pressure to maximize returns. Yet the infrastructure being financed assumes capabilities and security postures that do not yet exist. Forever Security researchers showed that malicious instruction files can trick OpenAI's Codex and Anthropic's Claude Code into executing harmful code or exposing authentication tokens. Alibaba's Qwen model claimed it would not use tools, then attempted to send a file to a server in Beijing anyway. Boston Dynamics employees protested a $40 billion ICE deal, with more than 300 signing a letter warning of risks. The gap between what enterprises need to deploy agents at scale and what currently exists to make those deployments safe and auditable is the core vulnerability.

OpenAI is consolidating its position as the infrastructure layer for production workflows. Its moves span code security, operational incident response, consumer commerce, and scientific validation, a portfolio designed to embed its models so deeply into existing work that switching becomes friction. Hardware makers are optimizing their silicon for models already winning. AWS is positioning itself as the infrastructure layer for traditional industries. IBM's focus on agent identity and control addresses a real operational problem: enterprises deploying agents faster than governance can keep pace. The pattern across all vendors is not competition for who builds the best model but competition for who owns the layer above it. On benchmarks, AnthropicFable 5 holds 64.5% on SWE-rebench while Claude Opus 5.5 ranks first on Artificial Analysis at 57.6, revealing that different evaluation frameworks measure different capabilities and no single model dominates across all metrics. In GitHub, developers are moving from prompt tuning toward infrastructure: security tools like NVIDIA/SkillSpector scan AI agent skills for vulnerabilities before installation; shadcn-ui remains dominant because it solves a genuine problem rather than chasing narrative. The market has moved from "can we build agents" to "how do we audit what they do."

Grant Calloway

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Research PapersAll papers
Retriever-Free Retrieval: Navigating Documents with Decision Models cs.AI

While language models have become dramatically more capable, retrieval still largely relies on lexical matching or similarity in fixed embedding spaces. This creates a capability asymmetry: what the retriever fails to find, even the strongest generator cannot recover. We propose DecisionRAG, which brings the capabilities of pretrained language models to retrieval using decision models that jointly evaluate candidate branches in a single forward pass, without generating any tokens, and show that judging candidates in a shared context makes their relevance estimates comparable. Like a person browsing a library, DecisionRAG navigates the corpus's inherent structure from broad topics down to individual passages, deciding at each level which branches are worth exploring. Without task-specific training or a first-stage retriever, DecisionRAG outperforms dense retrieval with an 8B reranker by 13.8 R@1 points on MultiDoc2Dial and 17.4 Hit@1 points on Natural Questions. Across four benchmarks, including a corpus of 2.68 million Wikipedia paragraphs, retrieval takes just 0.7-1.8 seconds per query.

Center-of-Mass Interpretation of Evolution Strategies cs.AI

Evolution strategies (ES) update a model by sampling a population of perturbed copies, scoring each one, and moving in the reward-weighted direction of the perturbations. This update is usually presented as an estimate of a smoothed gradient. We present a geometrical interpretation of this update instead. Treat each perturbed model as a particle and its reward as the particle's mass. Before scoring, every particle has the same mass and the population balances at its centroid. Once rewards are assigned, it balances at its reward-weighted center of mass instead. We show that the mean-subtracted ES update is exactly this displacement, scaled by a scalar factor that depends on the mean reward, for any finite population. The physical reading needs nonnegative rewards, which can always be arranged by adding a constant to every reward without changing the update. In the limit of a large population or under antithetic sampling, the centroid sits on the model itself, so ES has an even simpler geometric interpretation: from its current location, the model moves towards the reward-weighted center of mass of its own population. The same picture explains what subtracting the mean reward does: it changes the point from which the displacement is measured, from the model to the sampled centroid. Our contribution is an intuitive, geometric way to visualize an ES update, exact for any finite population.

Auto-Research Arena: Benchmarking and Advancing Auto-Research in Language Modeling cs.LG

As autonomous research systems become more capable, benchmarks must both evaluate their performance and support meaningful research progress. We introduce Auto-Research Arena, a multi-target benchmark for evaluating autonomous research systems and discovering ideas in language modeling. Arena supports diverse research objectives within a shared experimental environment by separating admissibility from improvement: model quality and resource constraints determine whether a result qualifies, while the selected target measures progress among admissible results. We instantiate Arena in language model pretraining with nine targets spanning model, data, training, and inference efficiency, and evaluate seven research harnesses using two foundation models. Arena clearly differentiates existing harnesses across research objectives, with several sophisticated methods outperformed by our simple sequential search baseline, indicating substantial headroom in current auto-research systems. Beyond evaluation, Arena reveals a substantially broader frontier of model and system ideas aligned with active research directions. Reusing these discoveries in a new quality-driven search yields lower training loss under matched data and FLOPs and lower held-out BPB at the same model size. Together, Arena provides a common framework for benchmarking autonomous research and expanding its scope in language modeling. The code is available at https://github.com/Auto-Research-Arena/auto-research-arena

Learning Force-Reactive Humanoid Loco-Manipulation cs.RO

Many everyday tasks require controlling contact force as well as motion. On a humanoid, this force must often be coordinated across both hands and the whole body, and cannot be specified by kinematic trajectories alone. Therefore, we present FLORE, a framework for learning force-reactive humanoid loco-manipulation. We collect robot-free demonstrations using two force-sensing UMI-style handheld grippers for hand motion and contact wrenches, and wearable trackers for body motion. A force-reactive diffusion policy takes vision, proprioception, and measured wrenches as input, then predicts actions and per-hand force commands. A hybrid compliance whole-body controller with force tracking executes these commands while maintaining balance: an integral of the force error measured by real force/torque (F/T) sensors lets each hand track force accurately along the commanded direction and remain compliant along the others. In simulation, the controller tracks per-hand force commands of varied magnitude and direction, with little loss in whole-body motion accuracy. Across three contact-rich tasks on the robot, the force-reactive policy succeeds in 80% of rollouts, compared with 26.7% for a position-only policy trained on the same demonstrations and executed by the same controller. For more details, please visit our website: https://louis-leee.github.io/FLoRe/.

On the stability of learning q-bio.NC

Learning algorithms are usually analyzed under the assumption that informative gradients are continuously available. But this is not always true---learning signals in biological neural networks, for example, may be sparse, local, and only intermittently available at any given synapse. In this work, we show that if gradient information is noisy and only intermittently available, learning may be unstable. In particular, even if average learning dynamics converge to the correct optimum, variance in learning may be asymptotically infinite. We explore this point in a number of analytically tractable settings, including single-layer and multi-layer linear networks, and derive explicit conditions under which learning is stable. These conditions complement, but are conceptually distinct from, existing conditions related to the stability of stochastic gradient descent. Our work demonstrates that unbiased credit assignment is not enough for reliable learning; sufficiently frequent and informative feedback is also required, which yields an additional constraint on models of biologically plausible learning.

Patient-specific rubric-based evaluation of large language models across longitudinal cancer care cs.AI

Large language models (LLMs) show promise in specialty medicine, yet existing evaluations largely focus on isolated clinical encounters rather than tracking how clinical responsibilities evolve across a longitudinal care pathway. Here we introduce NPC-RubricBench, a phase-aware benchmark for evaluating multistage clinical reasoning across the cancer care continuum, using nasopharyngeal carcinoma as a defined disease context. Curated from longitudinal records of 405 patients across two cancer centers, the benchmark comprises 941 patient-phase units across six sequential care phases and 17,688 patient-specific atomic criteria spanning five evaluation dimensions, with each assessment strictly restricted to decision-time clinical evidence. Evaluating 30 general-purpose and medical LLMs revealed that strong diagnostic performance does not carry over to downstream care. We evaluated 30 general-purpose and medical LLMs, showing that high diagnostic performance did not translate into improved downstream care. Instead, the dominant failure modes reversed across phases. Explicit decision errors dominated anatomical staging at 48.2%, whereas decision omissions dominated initial work-up and post-treatment follow-up at 33.4% and 30.4%, respectively. In the evaluated model set, medically adapted models showed higher omission rates than general-purpose models. Moreover, varying query granularity exposes a critical specification trade-off: broad open-ended requests degrade Decision Quality across all 30 models, while more detailed, checklist-like prompts raise Decision Quality but reduce Evidence Faithfulness and Safety Adherence. Furthermore, NPC-RubricBench demonstrates that static diagnostic benchmarks are insufficient to ensure consistent clinical reliability over time, highlighting the importance of phase-adaptive safeguards in multistage medical AI.

BenchmarksFull tables
Artificial AnalysisIntelligence Index

Composite score across coding, math, and reasoning

#ModelScoretok/s$/1M
1Claude Opus 5.557.697$8.00
2Claude Sonnet 5.556141$4.00
3Muse Wonder Full55.80$0.00
4Kimi K3.1 Pro55.139$4.00
5Claude Fable 5.153.466$20.00
SWE-rebench

Agentic coding on real-world software engineering tasks

#ModelScore
1AnthropicFable 5 [high]Model64.5%± 1.41%
2GrokGrok 4.5 [high]Model63.8%± 0.60%
3AnthropicOpus 5 [high]Model63.4%± 1.35%
4Z.aiGLM-5.2 [high]Model62.9%± 1.19%
5OpenAIGPT-5.6 Sol [medium]Model62.3%± 1.83%