Cloud providers are spending $660 billion to $690 billion on infrastructure capex in 2026, nearly double 2025 levels, yet Gartner calculates that enterprise and consumer AI revenue through 2030 will fall short of covering capital costs, financing, and expected returns by trillions of dollars. Character.ai, which claimed 20 million monthly active users by February 2025, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy while hemorrhaging $8 million per month, a concrete reminder that the infrastructure bet has decoupled entirely from the business case. The gap between what's being built and what can be monetized is widening fast, and that gap is reshaping where power actually lives in the market.
Leverage is shifting away from model vendors toward the platforms controlling distribution and the builders operating in the margins. Replit dropped Anthropic in favor of OpenAI on cost grounds, signaling that pricing and terms now reshape partnerships. Vercel's Jev decision model became the fastest-adopted AI model ever on its gateway, yet at least 20 alternatives shipped from Cloudflare, OpenAI, Perplexity, and others within four weeks, fragmenting the market into specialized tools rather than consolidating around winners. StepFun released Step 5 Preview with 600 billion parameters and one million token context as open weights. Perplexity open-sourced SPACE for AI agents. The builders with real constraints and real users are shipping faster than consensus predicted. On GitHub, the trending projects split cleanly between infrastructure for agentic systems and tools that make agents useful: frameworks like ruflo and obra/superpowers, skill libraries for specific domains, and unglamorous optimization work like xerj's 40x token reduction through autoindexing. The energy is in glue and harnesses around existing models, not in novel architectures or reasoning methods. That maturation signal suggests the foundation layer has stabilized enough that the problem moved upstream.
Regulatory and legal ground is collapsing beneath the industry simultaneously. OpenAI's models hacked crypto wallets and breached websites; had humans done the same, criminal charges would follow. A New Jersey deputy attorney general was arrested for producing AI-generated child sexual abuse material flagged on Discord. Meta is rewriting commercial terms of service to avoid AI licensing fees, prompting legal experts to call it a power grab. Bank of America paid $1.2 billion in fines for lax anti-money-laundering controls despite spending millions on AI compliance tech. Citi and other US banks are now restricting AI agents from accessing accounts, fearing deposit shifts. The infrastructure is running ahead of the law, the courts, and the compliance systems meant to govern it. When the gap between technical possibility and legal permissibility widens this far, the cost of operating in the gray zone rises fast.
Within the labs, three competitive pressures define the current market. First, enterprise lock-in is accelerating through vertical integration: OpenAI embedding models into Itaú's governance platform and conversational interface, Anthropic positioning Claude in research workflows from quantum circuit design to cryptographic analysis. Second, the hardware layer is fragmenting as non-NVIDIA vendors optimize aggressively for their architectures. AMD's detailed guidance for RDNA 3 and 4 GPUs, coupled with NVIDIA's RTX Spark for consumer and enterprise Windows PCs, signals a shift from GPU commodity to differentiated platforms where margin gets captured on inference and fine-tuning. Third, tension between open and proprietary strategies persists: Hugging Face's Beam model at 501B parameters, customizable and owned, competes directly with closed models, while Stack Overflow for Agents and Codex-powered code review demonstrate that value capture happens in application layers, not model weights. The SWE-bench rankings show Anthropic's Fable 5 at 64.5% with the same seven models occupying the top tier as before, suggesting these models have approached a performance ceiling on repository-level engineering tasks, or that the benchmark is saturating around what current agentic approaches can solve. Anthropic's "expectations gap" framing is notable: it's an acknowledgment that the market has priced in capabilities models haven't yet delivered, which invites either a valuation correction or a genuine capability jump to justify current positioning.
Grant Calloway
A coding agent works on repositories that can be far larger than its context window can hold. Prompt compressors and retrievers offer solutions to this problem, but patching an issue needs two things at once: the files that must change, and their code exactly as written, since the model must reproduce the lines it edits. Retrievers rank code by its similarity to the issue rather than by whether it must change, and compressors delete text to fit the budget. We show that at an equal token budget, an agent resolves more issues when the budget goes to choosing which files to show verbatim, as our simple selector CQ2-CARE does, than when it goes to pruning tokens or retrieving chunks. We fit every context to the same per-issue budget on 300 recent SWE-rebench issues and grade each patch with the benchmark's tests. With GPT-5.6 and Claude Opus 5, CQ2-CARE resolves 43.7% and 46.7% of the issues, 6.3 points more than the best of three compressors with either model, and 9.3 and 12.7 points more than the best of three retrievers. CQ2-CARE even resolves more issues than two methods trained for issue resolution, SweRank (by 0.7 and 1.7 points) and SWE-Pruner (by 2.0 and 7.3). Our analysis shows the defects of the baseline methods: retrievers often miss the files to edit, and compressors keep them but alter their text, so fewer patches apply. Exact-file selection needs no compression model and shows every line as the repository has it, so the model can quote the code it edits.
Code review is where AI-authored pull requests (AIPRs) must earn reviewer trust before integration, yet it is unclear whether reviewers apply the same criteria used for human-authored pull requests (HPRs). We surveyed 239 practitioners from 31 countries using matched HPR and AIPR questions to compare trust, evidence requirements, and verification practices within respondents. Most respondents (64.9%) reported lower initial trust in AIPRs. They relied less on author track record and subsystem familiarity, emphasizing instead human prompter expertise and bounded change size. For approval, respondents more often considered their own reasoning through critical cases sufficient for AIPRs than HPRs (55.2% versus 28.5%), while relying less on test coverage. Overall, 61.1% reported higher evidence requirements for AIPRs, and the share who would block approval under residual uncertainty increased from 19.4% for HPRs to 43.9% for AIPRs. Respondents prioritized test inspection, project context, and local execution, and more often selected partial reimplementation to verify non-trivial logic. Unclear ownership was also more likely to pause AIPR review (29.3% versus 14.6%). Open-ended responses pointed to the difficulty of validating plausible code without reliable context and human accountability. These findings frame AIPR review as an evidence-ownership problem, not merely a correctness check. Reviewers need to connect generated changes to validated behavior and responsible maintainers. Review tools and agentic workflows should expose provenance, distinguish generated claims from human-validated evidence, and make uncertainty visible before approval.
Deep learning models have shown significant promise in code-related tasks. While confidence calibration techniques have been proposed to improve model reliability, their effectiveness in real-world tasks with strict accuracy requirements remains uncertain. In this paper, we investigate two key questions: first, whether existing measurement metrics, including confidence scores and uncertainty metrics, are effective for guiding selective prediction; and second, whether existing calibration techniques can improve these metrics to better identify cases where model predictions are likely to succeed or fail. We conduct a systematic study on defect prediction and vulnerability detection using seven code models, evaluating thirteen uncertainty signals and three widely used post-hoc calibration methods. Our analysis reveals three major findings: (1) even strong uncertainty signals can remain poorly calibrated and provide limited separation at the high-confidence end, constraining selective prediction in practice; (2) standard post-hoc calibrators often improve calibration scores but do not consistently translate into better selective prediction behavior; and (3) commonly used calibration metrics can disagree with selective prediction performance, underscoring the need to evaluate both jointly. Moreover, our findings motivate a decision-oriented view of reliability in deep code models, where calibrated scores must be evaluated together with selective-prediction quality and retained-region risk before they can support accept--defer deployment.
Contribution guidelines help newcomers participate in open-source software projects, yet often contain incomplete or outdated information. Existing studies characterize newcomers' information needs and documentation gaps, but revising these guidelines requires recovering and validating project-specific knowledge from scattered sources. We present ContribAlign, a framework for automatically revising CONTRIBUTING files through category-guided evidence integration. A qualitative analysis yields a taxonomy of 30 fine-grained guidance types across six contribution categories. ContribAlign uses a classifier to diagnose coverage of the six categories in the original guidance, then uses the taxonomy to collect and organize project-specific evidence. It filters detected conflicts and uses a large language model to generate category-level revisions. The classifier achieves a weighted F1 score of 0.764, improving on the existing classifier by 0.156, while the verifier detects factual conflicts with 97.3% precision and 91.5% estimated recall. Human evaluation shows that ContribAlign achieves the highest overall quality among the original guidelines and three baselines, with significant improvements in usefulness, beginner-friendliness, and completeness. These results suggest that ContribAlign can help maintain more accurate and useful contribution guidelines.
As coding agents become increasingly capable, robust evaluation requires a broader and more diverse supply of verifiable software engineering (SWE) tasks. However, real-world tasks are constrained by the natural frequency of issue reporting and the substantial cost of manual curation. Furthermore, existing synthetic approaches rely primarily on the pretrained knowledge of large models coupled with heuristic prompting, often failing to capture the authentic, complex mechanics of software failures. To exponentially scale SWE task production, we introduce SWE-at-Scale, a framework that automatically synthesizes realistic issues by reverse-engineering real-world software fixes. Our key insight is that historical fixes encapsulate deep mechanistic knowledge of bug formation: inverting a fix transforms repair supervision into bug-induction supervision grounded in actual development scenarios. SWE-at-Scale transfers these learned bug patterns to novel code contexts, repeatedly sampling diverse bug typologies to construct executable SWE tasks. Extensive experiments show that SWE-at-Scale generates more diverse and realistic SWE tasks than current synthesis baselines while posing greater challenges to state-of-the-art coding agents. Notably, SWE-at-Scale can generate distinct bug types from a single code context, with bug diversity scaling robustly even up to 200 generations per file. Overall, SWE-at-Scale turns finite real-world fixes into reusable supervision for scalable synthesis of realistic, diverse, and challenging SWE tasks.
Modern software relies heavily on third-party libraries, requiring maintainers to balance the benefits of reuse against dependency-related maintenance and risk. We define dependency transformation as an emerging approach in which an AI coding agent alters how a repository handles external dependencies. Local reimplementation is one transformation strategy that recreates required functionality as local code; dependency transformation is broader and may include other strategies. In this emerging-results paper, we report an exploratory case study of Flask to explore dependency transformation strategies. We design experiments that show how available context shapes an agent's dependency discovery and iterative transformation of dependencies. The case yields five preliminary lessons. These lessons and the five-part research agenda position dependency transformation as an emerging research direction and motivate explicit transformation contracts, provenance constraints, preservation requirements, and independent validation criteria.
Composite score across coding, math, and reasoning
| # | Model | Score | tok/s | $/1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Claude Opus 5.5 | 57.6 | 98 | $8.00 |
| 2 | Claude Sonnet 5.5 | 56 | 144 | $4.00 |
| 3 | Muse Wonder Full | 55.8 | 0 | $0.00 |
| 4 | Claude Fable 5.1 | 53.4 | 69 | $20.00 |
| 5 | GPT-6 Astra | 52.7 | 61 | $20.00 |
Agentic coding on real-world software engineering tasks
| # | Model | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | AnthropicFable 5 [high]Model | 64.5%± 1.41% |
| 2 | GrokGrok 4.5 [high]Model | 63.8%± 0.60% |
| 3 | AnthropicOpus 5 [high]Model | 63.4%± 1.35% |
| 4 | Z.aiGLM-5.2 [high]Model | 62.9%± 1.19% |
| 5 | OpenAIGPT-5.6 Sol [medium]Model | 62.3%± 1.83% |
Official, Anthropic-managed directory of high quality Claude Code Plugins.
A set of ready to use Agent Skills for research, science, engineering, analysis, finance and writing.
The agent harness performance optimization system. Skills, instincts, memory, security, and research-first development for Claude Code, Codex, Opencode, Cursor and beyond.
"CLI-Anything: Making ALL Software Agent-Native" -- CLI-Hub: https://clianything.cc/
Context window optimization for AI coding agents. Sandboxes tool output, 98% reduction. 12 platforms
Data augmentation for NLP
OpenVINO™ is an open source toolkit for optimizing and deploying AI inference
😎 A curated list of tensor decomposition resources for model compression.
🤖 A Python library for learning and evaluating knowledge graph embeddings
🎯 All you need. Nothing you don't. Open source project management that works for you, not against you.