The Inference Report

October 12, 2026

The AI industry is splitting into two incompatible problems masquerading as one. Inference costs are collapsing toward marginal economics, Cloudflare's Clef-omni at $0.15 per million tokens and vLLM's Decision 3.0 represent a clear commoditization of routing and classification tasks, while the actual constraint has shifted entirely to politics and balance sheets. UK ministers are drafting compulsory AI safety reporting, hyperscalers are asking data center opponents to drop NDAs, and creditors are pricing in leverage that equity investors pretend doesn't exist. The inference speed problem is solved. The data center financing crisis is not.

Research methodology is quietly inverting the relationship between claims and evidence. Rather than trusting benchmark scores, papers are now instrumenting systems to measure what they actually do: MC-EvoBench isolates embodied learning by resetting environments, CASP-VL measures whether vision-language models encode spatial relations under intervention, and Hide and Seek masks concept-aligned regions to measure attribution without model weights. This shift from output-level testing to mechanistic observation spans evaluation frameworks, perturbation analysis, and optimization methods that adapt to constraints revealed only at runtime. The pattern is consistent: control for confounds, don't assume determinism, instrument before claiming capability.

Developer priorities reveal where the field is maturing. Infrastructure tools like AirLLM and Lance solve concrete friction, running 70B parameter models on consumer hardware, achieving 100x faster random access than Parquet, and they trend because they make hard things possible within real constraints. Agent platforms like Morluto/rea and goraven promise autonomous work, chasing capability expansion. But the discovery repos tell a different story: Lance and Laya consolidate expertise around data infrastructure mismatches, Bisheng and goraven acknowledge that model capability alone doesn't ship products, and smaller tools like Greenmask address unglamorous persistent problems. The field is valuing correctness over novelty because scale requires it.

Grant Calloway

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Research PapersAll papers
Can Language Models Play the Wikipedia Game? cs.AI

Language models increasingly support or automate information retrieval from document collections too large to index. This task is difficult when it requires specialist linguistic or scientific knowledge. We used the Wikipedia Game to test language models on an analogous information retrieval task. In the game, players must reach a target article using only article links. We compared sentence embedding models and LLMs across five Wikipedia languages and five academic-literature datasets. We construct very large local graphs of Wikipedia pages and of paper citations using OpenAlex and provide code to build and navigate them. This allows the study of language models' navigation capabilities without relying on third-party APIs. We compared the models with human and TF-IDF benchmarks. The Wikipedia Game format enables robust comparisons across techniques, languages, and domains. No model significantly outperformed humans, although the best models (GPT-o3 mini, GPT-4o, QwQ:32B, and DeepSeek-R1:70B) achieved comparable success. Performance and rankings varied across languages and topics, with implications for practitioners utilising these techniques.

Hide and Seek: HIDE Concepts to SEEK explanations for black box models cs.CV

Interpreting machine learning model predictions is a central challenge, particularly for black-box vision models. Concept-based attribution methods interpret models using human-understandable concepts. Existing concept-based methods can only interpret classification and regression models. They require access to model weights or large concept-annotated datasets, and most methods cannot provide image-level attribution. We propose Hide and Seek (HnS), a new method for concept-level attribution that does not require access to model weights or labeled concept datasets. HnS can interpret a wide range of vision models. Given a concept and image set, HnS retrieves concept-aligned images using a vision-language model, localizes the concept within each image, masks the localized region, and measures attribution from the change in the black-box model's output between the original and masked images. This enables faithful attribution by directly measuring the model's behavior and supporting local attributions. We validated HnS on CelebA and COCO-Stuff. Compared to existing methods, HnS showed better agreement with ground-truth attributions. We demonstrated the applicability of HnS on diverse tasks, including image captioning and satellite image segmentation, where no existing concept attribution method can be used. We provided our anonymous code in the supplementary material.

Constructive Bounds for the Topological Expressivity of Neural Networks math.AT

The expressivity of a neural network $Φ$ describes the class of functions that a network can express. The term topological expressivity refers to a family of measures particularly suited to understand binary classification and is often formulated in terms of the Betti numbers of a decision boundary $β(Φ^{-1}(0))$. Despite its popularity, this measure is not as useful for regression and other problems that do not involve a decision boundary. Instead, we propose to study topological expressivity in terms of the Betti numbers of the output of a neural network $β(Φ(X))$. We formally prove that a ReLU network with architecture $(d,\sum\limits_{k=1}^{d } β_k(3k+2),\sum\limits_{k=1}^{d}β_k(k+1))$ can express spaces homotopy equivalent to wedge sums of spheres with arbitrary Betti numbers. This gives upper bounds for any arbitrary connected ($β_0=1$) sequence of Betti numbers, but by constructing spaces homotopy equivalent to products of $N$ spheres of dimension $d_1,...,d_N$ we achieve much better bounds $(\sum\limits_{n=1} d_n, 3\sum\limits_{n=1}\limits^N d_n + 2N, \sum\limits_{n=1}\limits^N d_n + N) $ for Betti numbers given by $\prod_n (1+x^{d_n})$. Finally we conjecture a much stronger tight bound which gives the architectural bound $(d,d+1,d+1)$ for a space homeomorphic to the sphere.

AI Models Can Provably Hide Arbitrary Capabilities cs.LG

Capability evaluations aim to surface dangerous model behaviors before deployment, but their reliability depends on the assumption that hidden capabilities can be elicited. We show this assumption does not hold under adversarial conditions by constructing backdoor attacks that embed encrypted neural networks within host model weights, decrypting and executing them only upon receiving a secret trigger. Using digital lockers, these hidden circuits remain provably hard to elicit and interpret under cryptographic assumptions, even given full access to model weights, extending prior work from hiding fixed strings to arbitrary computations. We implement our proof of concept constructions in PyTorch and evaluate elicitation through fine-tuning, weight noising, gradient-based trigger search, and latent adversarial training on a small chemical reaction prediction task - a proxy for CBRN-relevant capabilities. Our results demonstrate resistance to these methods and, together with our cryptographic guarantees, reveal a limit of elicitation-based capability audits. We release our models to support the improvement of defenses.

KL Before and After Mixing: A Round-Complexity Separation in Parallel Sampling cs.LG

A parallel sampler can choose at random which coordinates to generate together. For a target $p$ and the output law $q_U$ of a schedule $U$ drawn afresh for each output, we compare the schedule-averaged divergence $\mathbb{E}_U D_{\mathrm{KL}}(p\|q_U)$ with the output-law divergence $D_{\mathrm{KL}}(p\|\mathbb{E}_U q_U)$, in nats. Rounds commit independent draws from exact conditional marginals frozen at the round's start, each output's schedule is drawn before sampling from a finite mixture of schedules, and every scheduled round is charged. For the uniform distribution on binary strings of even length $n$ with $n/2$ ones, the least expected number of rounds at a fixed tolerance $\varepsilon>0$ is $Θ_\varepsilon((\log n)^2)$ under the first criterion but $(e^{-\varepsilon}+o(1))\log_2\ln n$ under the second, and the double-logarithmic order is attainable with the same round count on every run. For this target, a count-state recursion gives the exact least output divergence at every round cap over all causal randomized policies. The separation extends to weighted fixed-count targets with bounded weight ratios and quota fractions bounded away from zero and one, without permutation symmetry, and to the full-support Beta$(1,1)$--Bernoulli target, where the sharp expected cost under the output-law criterion is $(e^{-\varepsilon}/2+o(1))\log_2\log_2n$, attained with rare $n$-round runs. Prior work implies the order of the schedule-averaged cost on the balanced target and its $O_\varepsilon((\log n)^2)$ upper bounds on both extensions.

Goal-Oriented Bundle Management and Flow Control for Deep-Space Communications via Reinforcement Learning cs.NI

Deep-space communications operate under intermittent connectivity, long propagation delays, and relay storage constraints. In such networks, the Bundle Protocol enables store-carry-forward communication, requiring relay nodes to manage limited storage and scarce contact opportunities. Relay-side scheduling and dropping decisions are inherently goal-oriented: transmission resources should be allocated to bundles most valuable to downstream mission objectives. Conventional schedulers, such as FIFO, do not explicitly optimize task utility and may provide unfair service across heterogeneous planetary sources. This paper presents a closed-loop modeling and learning framework for relay-side bundle and flow management in a contact-driven deep-space network, where lunar and Martian updates are forwarded through a shared-buffer relay to Earth. We quantify destination-side information freshness using excess age $Δ_i^e(t)=[Δ_i(t)-d_i(t)]^+$, where $Δ_i(t)$ denotes the Age of Information of source $i$ and $d_i(t)$ is a source-dependent delay baseline. Based on this metric, we define a goal-oriented loss that supports source-dependent nonlinear penalties, allowing prioritization according to mission relevance. We formulate relay control as a constrained semi-Markov decision process (CSMDP) and solve it using masked Lagrangian Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO). Feasibility-aware action masking restricts transmissions to bundles that can complete within the remaining contact window. DTNSim simulations indicate improved age-based utility and inter-flow fairness compared with baseline schedulers. The proposed framework jointly optimizes relay-side bundle scheduling, dropping, and flow control under contact-driven dynamics with explicit fairness considerations across heterogeneous sources.

BenchmarksFull tables
Artificial AnalysisIntelligence Index

Composite score across coding, math, and reasoning

#ModelScoretok/s$/1M
1Claude Opus 5.557.697$8.00
2Claude Sonnet 5.556133$4.00
3Claude Fable 5.153.472$20.00
4GPT-6 Astra52.762$20.00
5Gemini 4 Argon52.60$4.00
SWE-rebench

Agentic coding on real-world software engineering tasks

#ModelScore
1AnthropicFable 5 [high]Model64.5%± 1.41%
2GrokGrok 4.5 [high]Model63.8%± 0.60%
3AnthropicOpus 5 [high]Model63.4%± 1.35%
4Z.aiGLM-5.2 [high]Model62.9%± 1.19%
5OpenAIGPT-5.6 Sol [medium]Model62.3%± 1.83%