The Inference Report

August 29, 2026

"Control over distribution matters more than capability leaps."

Anthropic won a clean legal victory this week when a federal judge ruled the Pentagon's supply-chain risk designation arbitrary and capricious, handing the company a decisive rebuke of what amounted to political retaliation dressed as security policy. The ruling removes friction from Anthropic's path to expand into hardware control through its Model Hardware Standard, positioning the company as infrastructure for physical automation while simultaneously demonstrating self-improving AI systems that optimize without performance degradation. Simultaneously, OpenAI terminated Cursor's API access following SpaceX's acquisition, a deliberate boundary around model distribution that transcends technical capability and reveals how seriously the company treats control over deployment contexts. The pattern across both events signals that the real competitive battleground is no longer about who builds the most capable model but who controls the distribution chain and where the next wave of builders will be trained.

The chip-leasing economy is cannibalizing itself while the open-weight model market attracts capital despite its fundamental contradiction. Neocloud Lambda just raised one billion dollars in private debt to buy Nvidia chips and lease them to Microsoft, joining a growing queue of companies financing the AI boom through ever-larger debt loads. These middlemen exist because compute costs have become so stratospheric that even giants prefer to outsource the capital burden, yet simultaneously open-weight AI companies are becoming the Valley's hottest acquisition targets despite giving models away for free. The math works only if acquisition or licensing eventually converts free distribution into revenue, but that conversion remains theoretical. Debt-financed chip brokers are taking real financial risk on the assumption that demand for compute stays exponential. Any disruption to that curve hits them hardest.

Productivity gains from AI spending remain invisible despite 2.59 trillion dollars projected worldwide spend in 2026, while the technology is already reshaping labor markets in predictable ways. Meta is testing robots to swap cables in data centers, Chinese actors are being replaced by AI video generation, and medical AI is outperforming human doctors on benchmarks. The technology is moving faster into operational roles than productivity metrics can measure or societies can absorb. What's being lost in the coverage is that AI isn't failing to drive productivity gains because it's not working. It's working exactly as intended: concentrating decision-making authority, eliminating labor costs, and shifting risk onto workers and users while the efficiency gains accrue to capital. Whether legal scrutiny catches up faster than deployment is the real question.

On the technical front, developers are pivoting hard toward agentic tooling while quietly solving the unglamorous problem of making models smaller and faster. Trending repositories showcase agent frameworks and flashy integrations, but discovery repositories reveal where actual engineering effort flows: optimization work that compresses language models through sparse attention, cuts token usage by fifty times through graph-based indexing, and accelerates dataframe operations on GPU. Computer graphics research demonstrates the same principle, replacing dense globally-optimized representations with sparse geometry-aware alternatives and cutting memory consumption by sixty-eight percent while improving fidelity. The pattern suggests that infrastructure and efficiency, not capability leaps, are becoming the foundation for the next generation of deployment.

Grant Calloway

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Research Papers — FocusedAll papers
emg2face: Expressive Facial Animation with High-Density Surface EMG cs.GR

Facial movements convey subtle and important information that is critical for human social communication. Optical methods for face capture are difficult or impossible to use when the face is occluded by head-mounted devices (HMDs), such as VR headsets. Even with a clear line of sight, such methods raise privacy concerns and require head-mounted capture rigs that offset cameras and lighting from the face. We show that high-density surface electromyography (HD-sEMG) provides a viable non-optical alternative that addresses these challenges. We measured 64 EMG channels, using two textile EMG grids, with 32 from the forehead (typically occluded by an HMD) and 32 from the side of the face. EMG data were digitized at 2048 Hz and filtered. Facial movements were simultaneously recorded and used to estimate 478 3D facial landmarks using MediaPipe's Face Landmarker. A major challenge in such multimodal recordings is synchronizing EMG and video data, which have different sampling frequencies and independent clocks. We developed a novel synchronization method using analog audio bursts that is capable of sub-millisecond synchronization. We also developed a staged fitting method that fits a recent high-resolution parametric head model (GNM), with 253 identity blendshapes and 383 expression blendshapes, to the MediaPipe landmarks as participants performed different facial expressions. We trained a deep neural network comprising per-grid spatial encoders followed by a dilated temporal convolutional network (TCN) to predict blendshape parameters from HD-sEMG signals at 100 Hz. Once trained, the network can predict expression blendshapes solely from HD-sEMG recordings. The output can be rendered using standard real-time blendshape animation methods. We demonstrate the methods using recordings from 25 participants, and direct expression transfer to a variety of human faces and non-human characters.

TRACK: Telemetry-Based Racing Analysis and Coaching Kit in Sim Racing Games cs.GR

This paper presents TRACK (Telemetry-Based Racing Analysis and Coaching Kit), which is a framework for analyzing driving performance in sim racing and profiling how individual drivers behave behind the wheel. We report this framework together with its limitations: we calibrate each clustering result against a null, and when one does not separate from chance, we say so. Instead of restricting ourselves to scoring drivers or sorting them into preset labels, we represent each recording session as a compact geometry in a four-dimensional behavioral space (speed, braking, strategy, and consistency), and we group these fingerprints by their similarity using unsupervised clustering. Over time, we have developed and refined this framework on the open Assetto Corsa Gym (ACGym) dataset. Our study suggests that corner types differ along a behavioral dimension that was not used to define them. It also suggests that when the car changes, only speed and consistency carry over in the restricted population, while repeatability could not be shown there for any of the braking or strategy measures. Cluster separation becomes less distinct as the range of available telemetry widens. Until that repeatability is shown, grouping on the braking and strategy dimensions cannot treat the car as interchangeable, which divides an already small sample into smaller cells. It is also not clear whether a driver's grouping carries over from one corner type to the next. We also normalize each metric against a reinforcement-learning reference agent. The reference does not depend on the sample, so the scale does not shift when the sample does. We intend these results as an analytical foundation for a personalized improvement suggestion system. The sample is small. The cross-car result changes when the sample is defined more broadly. These outcomes are preliminary.

SsgCaps: A controlled dataset for the evaluation of sound scene generation algorithms cs.GR

Sound Scene Generation is about the automatic synthesis of artificial sound scenes. We introduce SsgCaps, a publicly available dataset of human-engineered sound scenes wherein each scene matches a precisely structured prompt that guides the sampling process. The corresponding prompts are sampled from a predefined action-based typology that allows extensive sampling while retaining plausibility. SsgCaps is a sound scene dataset derived from the unpublished reference dataset for Task 7 of the 2024 DCASE Challenge edition, which contained private-and public-domain audio samples. In contrast, SsgCaps contains only public-domain audio samples, allowing us to open this dataset to the community. To make this dataset useful to the community, we first elaborate on the rationale for the prompt and dataset structure. We then perform a comparative quantitative analysis of the 2 versions of the dataset. To do so, we compare both versions to the audio synthesized by the SSG algorithms submitted to the challenge using Fr{é}chet Audio Distance (FAD) and Kernel Audio Distance (KAD) as well as perceptual ratings. This analysis shows only small differences, which enables us to recommend the open version for further benchmarking of SSG algorithms.

KaiNinja: Extending Native 3D Generators to the Part Level cs.GR

Native 3D generators turn one image into a single mesh. TRELLIS.2 and its peers deliver high-fidelity non-watertight geometry with materials, but the output is one fused object, while downstream work such as editing, rigging and simulation operates on part-level assets. A naive idea is to run a 3D segmentation network on the fused mesh that TRELLIS.2 generates, but such pipelines are slow and bounded by the accuracy of the segmentation. We want a simple way to extend an existing native 3D generator to the part level. But we face a critical problem: the O-Voxel grid stores one sheet of surface per voxel, so a single volume cannot represent the interface where two parts touch, at any resolution. We introduce a dual-volume representation to solve this problem and put forward KaiNinja, a part-level extension of TRELLIS.2 built on a dual-volume form of its O-Voxel representation. KaiNinja keeps the generation speed and quality of TRELLIS.2 while extending it to the part level, with no mask or segmenter in the pipeline. Its training data come from sources of many kinds, including CAD models and assets authored by an LLM-driven agent; to our knowledge it is the first 3D generative model trained on agent-authored part data. Surprisingly, we also find that whole-object fidelity improves over the same backbone fine-tuned on the same dataset. Against part generation pipelines of different paradigms, it lowers whole-object Chamfer distance by 40% and raises strict part F-score by 16%.

Hologram Representation via Quadratic Phase Gaussian Splatting cs.GR

We introduce Complex-Valued Quadratic Phase Gaussian (CVQPG), a novel hologram representation method that replaces standard 2D Gaussian representations used in 2D Gaussian Splatting with 2D quadratic phase functions. CVQPG incorporates additional learnable parameters to control the curvature of these bases. We evaluate our approach against state-of-the-art methods, exceeding the visual quality by +0.19 dB (RGB) and +0.33 dB (grayscale) on average in holographic reconstructions. Specifically, our equal parameter count evaluations show that modulating the primitive's wavefront is an effective and lightweight enhancement for hologram representations. In addition, our frequency domain analysis illustrates that CVQPG has successfully preserved the mid-to-high frequency band of natural images.

BrainLinear: A Linear Model for Brain Network Analysis in Sparse Tangent Subspaces cs.GR

Functional connectome analysis examines brain-region interactions to understand and identify disorders such as autism spectrum disorder and Alzheimer's disease. Existing methods typically use GNNs and Transformers to model the full functional connectivity matrix. However, processing tens of thousands of connections introduces redundancy and noise, increases computational cost, and limits connection-level interpretability. This raises a central question: do we really need complex interaction modeling, or is identifying a small set of disease-relevant connectivity patterns sufficient? To answer this question, we propose BrainLinear, a lightweight geometry-aware framework for mining disease-discriminative connectome patterns. BrainLinear first maps each functional connectivity matrix to a shared tangent space centered at the Fréchet mean of the training set, capturing subject-specific deviations while respecting matrix geometry. It then scores each ROI-pair tangent direction by its classification contribution and disease--control difference, retaining Top-$K$ directions as a compact representation. Finally, a shallow multilayer perceptron performs classification on the selected representation. Experiments on ABIDE and ADNI show that BrainLinear matches or exceeds strong GNN and Transformer baselines at a fraction of their cost: it improves AUC and ACC over the best baseline for each metric by up to $3.54$ and $1.39$ percentage points, while reducing runtime and peak GPU memory by $84.0\%$ and $68.4\%$ relative to the closest baseline in AUC. The selected directions are directionally consistent with between-group displacements and organized across major functional systems, supporting connection-level interpretation.

BenchmarksFull tables
Artificial AnalysisIntelligence Index

Composite score across coding, math, and reasoning

#ModelScoretok/s$/1M
1Claude Opus 563.153$10.00
2Claude Fable 562.165$20.00
3GPT-5.6 Sol60.981$8.00
4Grok 4.660.960$3.00
5Kimi K359.736$6.00
SWE-rebench

Agentic coding on real-world software engineering tasks

#ModelScore
1AnthropicFable 5 [high]Model64.5%± 1.41%
2GrokGrok 4.5 [high]Model63.8%± 0.60%
3AnthropicOpus 5 [high]Model63.4%± 1.35%
4Z.aiGLM-5.2 [high]Model62.9%± 1.19%
5OpenAIGPT-5.6 Sol [medium]Model62.3%± 1.83%
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