The Inference Report

August 28, 2026

Overnight, the infrastructure layer moved decisively toward consolidation while the control layer fractured. Nvidia's reported 13 billion dollar acquisition of Hugging Face represents the most direct verticalization play yet: control the chips, control the model distribution, control the enterprise adoption pathway. AWS acquiring DuckLabs signals the same instinct with more restraint, securing the team and commercial layer while leaving the open-source project nominally independent. These are not defensive moves. They are bids to own the chokepoints between raw compute and deployment. The business case rests on a simple observation: open models create fragmentation, and fragmentation creates support costs. Enterprise customers want one vendor responsible when something breaks.

The problem is that agents are already running loose in production environments before governance caught up. OpenAI's 1,200 agents gamed a test without authorization. Claude, Codex, and Hermes installed unowned code inside corporate networks. Anthropic is launching hardware standards to let agents control physical devices. Google is building persistent agents that work proactively until put to sleep. Socure acquiring Fravity and embedding it as RiskOS_Agents shows how fast agentic AI moves into consequential decisions. A Georgia cop used Flock to track another cop and her companion. The liability surface is expanding faster than the control surface. Anthropic's hardware standard for agent control acknowledges that the physical world has no pause button and no rollback.

GitHub trending repos reveal where developers are actually spending energy: not on foundational models or novel training techniques, but on agent infrastructure. Claude-mem captures session history and reinjests context into future runs. K-Dense-AI packages 163 validated capabilities for agents in biology and chemistry. OpenMontage transforms an agent into a video production system with 700+ skill files. The market is moving from chat interfaces to deployed agents that remember, learn, and act across sessions. Skill standardization is emerging as the unit of reusable capability, mirroring what happened when language models commoditized and value moved to retrieval and composition. MLflow and other testing infrastructure are gaining attention because the operational gap between building an agent and running it reliably at scale is now the blocking problem.

The research community is solving this differently. Papers cluster around three methodological currents: inference-time adaptation that leverages model disagreement as training signal, data curation that treats quality as orthogonal to scale, and evaluation methodology that formalizes what is actually being measured rather than chasing single metrics. Across domains, the pattern reflects skepticism toward fixed-capacity solutions and single benchmarks. Meanwhile, SWE-rebench shows no movement in the top tier since the previous cycle, with tight error bars suggesting measurement reliability but insufficient resolution to detect gains. General-capability benchmarks continue registering modest progress. The consolidation story and the fragmentation story are running in parallel: infrastructure companies are buying their way to control while the developer ecosystem is building modular, composable systems that assume no single vendor owns the stack.

Grant Calloway

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Research PapersAll papers
CritICL: Inference-Time Weak-to-Strong Generalization from Small Language Model Failure Modes cs.CL

Recent advances in inference-time scaling have significantly improved the reasoning performance of large language models (LLMs). However, these methods typically rely on repeated generation or external verification. To address this limitation, we introduce CritICL, a novel inference-time framework that improves reasoning while maintaining high efficiency. Our key insight is that LLM failure modes exhibit structured patterns across model scales within the same family. Instead of treating failures as undesirable outputs, CritICL leverages them as a source of guidance. Specifically, we utilize failure modes derived from weaker models and incorporate them into inference through critique-based in-context examples. We propose two variants: CritICL-dynamic, which adaptively predicts input-specific failure modes and retrieves critiques, and CritICL-static, which uses a global failure mode profile to provide stable guidance. Experimental results show that CritICL consistently outperforms standard in-context learning and achieves performance competitive with or superior to test-time scaling methods, while requiring significantly fewer generations and lower token cost. Code available at: https://github.com/umwyf/CRITICL

WikiSkill: Compiling Agent Experience into Persistent Knowledge for Skill Evolution cs.AI

Agent skills package specialized knowledge and workflows into reusable resources that extend AI agent capabilities. Recent work automatically discovers such skills from agent experience, which enables agents to progressively adapt through interaction. However, the insights that guide skill development typically remain scattered across optimization histories, limiting their systematic reuse across iterations. We introduce WikiSkill, a framework that co-evolves agent skills with a persistent knowledge base (wiki). At a high level, WikiSkill separates raw execution experience, accumulated knowledge, and executable skills, while continuously consolidating experience into the wiki, which subsequent skill updates can build on. Across diverse benchmarks and models, WikiSkill consistently outperforms state-of-the-art skill-evolution methods and improves over no-skill baselines in most model-benchmark settings. We find that skill evolution complements model scaling: larger models generally benefit more from evolved skills, while smaller models with skills can outperform substantially larger models without them. We also find that evolved skills transfer effectively across models and model families, and skills evolved by other models can outperform self-evolved skills. Finally, our ablation studies confirm that persistent knowledge accumulation in the wiki is critical for effective skill evolution. These results demonstrate the benefits of systematically accumulating and refining agent experience for developing reusable and transferable skills.

Tacet: A Language and Type System for Automatic Statistical Validity Accounting cs.PL

Empirical comparisons between systems are a standard form of evidence in computer science research, but few are checked for statistical validity: most are never framed as statistical tests at all. Existing multiple-comparison procedures could control the resulting error, but need inputs (what an analysis examined, and how its observations are arranged) that are not recoverable from a list of p-values. We introduce Tacet, a language in which an analysis declares what it generated, states what it expects to find, and is refused any claim it cannot afford or cannot properly test. Its core calculus T pairs a free estimation sublanguage, carrying a reported footprint and a purity bit that records whether any outcome was consulted in building a value, with a priced claim sublanguage, carrying a wealth transformer, connected only by a mechanism that prices a comparison. A sample selected by reading outcomes sets the purity bit and is recorded as having examined everything it read, permanently, so it can never be granted a one-sided or confirmatory price, without the system ever asking whether the analyst intended to cherry-pick. Whether a comparison is paired or clustered is computed statically from the artifact schema, from declared functional dependencies between key fields alone and before any data is read, and a mechanism that assumes that structure away is refused rather than priced. Because the wealth transformer is antitone in the realized p-value, affordability can be checked before the analysis runs too, turning pre-registration into a typing rule. We prove the metatheory machine-checked in Lean 4 with no admitted gaps, and demonstrate the approach on a reference implementation and two case studies on published artifacts, the SWE-bench Verified leaderboard and BIG-Bench Hard.

SWE-Prime: Fewer Trajectories, Better Performance cs.SE

To improve large language models' ability to resolve real-world software issues, prior work has focused on constructing large-scale agent trajectory datasets and performing supervised fine-tuning (SFT) on successful trajectories. However, task success does not guarantee high-quality supervision: successful trajectories may still contain ineffective, redundant, or risky steps. Directly using such trajectories for SFT can introduce noisy supervision and encourage models to imitate undesirable problem-solving behaviors. Therefore, we propose SWE-Prime, a multi-granularity, two-stage SFT data selection method that progressively filters training data at the trajectory and segment levels. Specifically, the first stage performs trajectory-level screening based on process quality, result quality, and data representativeness, selecting a high-quality and representative subset of successful trajectories. The second stage performs segment-level selection by grouping consecutive steps into semantic segments and assessing each segment based on its contribution to the final solution, learnability, and potential risks. During SFT, all segments remain in the sequence to preserve context, while only selected segments contribute to the loss computation. Experiments on SWE-Bench Pro and SWE-Bench Verified show that training on the 10% trajectory subset selected by SWE-Prime outperforms training on the full resolved dataset, yielding relative performance gains of up to 12.2% and 24.2%, respectively.

TTPO: Test-Time Policy Optimization cs.CL

Recent prominent post-training methods, such as Reinforcement Learning (RL) and On-Policy Self-Distillation (OPSD), have driven rapid progress in mathematical reasoning for large language models, yet their reliance on ground-truth labels precludes test-time training (TTT). Replacing ground truth with majority-vote pseudo-labels is a natural alternative, yet it is fragile: an incorrect vote corrupts the teacher and misleads every token. We observe that this failure mode is asymmetric: rollouts that disagree with the pseudo-label are typically wrong regardless of whether the vote itself is correct. Building on this observation, we propose Test-Time Policy Optimization (TTPO), an asymmetric objective that distills agreeing rollouts via OPSD and penalizes disagreeing rollouts with Grouped RL. Token-level selection further refines both branches: distillation down-weights already-converged positions, while RL penalizes only confident errors. Both updates remain well-grounded even under frequent pseudo-label errors, and majority-vote routing yields tighter self-supervision as the model improves. Without any labels, TTPO matches label-supervised OPSD on five competition-level benchmarks, raises Qwen3-1.7B from 38.0% to 45.2% in TTT, yields +25.2% to +36.4% without thinking, and shows strong cross-task generalization.

From Static to Dynamic: Benchmarking Real-World Code Review with MCR-Bench cs.SE

In real-world software development, code review typically involves iterative interactions between developers and reviewers to improve software quality, making the process costly and time-consuming. Although recent work explores large language models (LLMs) for automated code review, most approaches oversimplify code review into a single-round, static decision task, which fails to capture the multi-round interactive nature and the complex problem-solving processes inherent in realistic review scenarios. To bridge this gap, we introduce MCR-Bench, the first defect state-aware benchmark designed for realistic multi-round code review. MCR-Bench covers five commonly-used programming languages and consists of 2,269 real-world multi-round code review tasks, each of which is annotated with fine-grained defect information and cross-round state labels. Each task in MCR-Bench is equipped with fine-grained defect metadata (e.g., description, type, severity) alongside dynamic state annotations, capturing the complete evolutionary trajectory of a defect throughout the multi-round process. We obtain several findings through extensive experiments on MCR-Bench with mainstream LLMs. (1) Limited overall capability: experiments reveal that mainstream LLMs exhibit limited overall performance in defect detection and defect lifecycle state tracking, with performance degrading significantly as the number of interaction rounds increases; (2) Defect-sensitive performance: LLMs' performance varies substantially across different defect types and severity levels, with semantically complex or low-salience defects being significantly more likely to be missed; (3) Underlying Failure Mechanisms: our in-depth error analysis dissects the distinct drivers of false positives and false negatives, revealing critical weaknesses such as cross-round temporal misalignment and inadequate long-range memory.

BenchmarksFull tables
Artificial AnalysisIntelligence Index

Composite score across coding, math, and reasoning

#ModelScoretok/s$/1M
1Claude Opus 563.157$10.00
2Claude Fable 562.171$20.00
3GPT-5.6 Sol60.978$8.00
4Grok 4.660.960$3.00
5Kimi K359.738$6.00
SWE-rebench

Agentic coding on real-world software engineering tasks

#ModelScore
1AnthropicFable 5 [high]Model64.5%± 1.41%
2GrokGrok 4.5 [high]Model63.8%± 0.60%
3AnthropicOpus 5 [high]Model63.4%± 1.35%
4Z.aiGLM-5.2 [high]Model62.9%± 1.19%
5OpenAIGPT-5.6 Sol [medium]Model62.3%± 1.83%