The Inference Report

August 18, 2026

A paper on methodological skepticism in AI evaluation deserves more attention than it will receive. Across robotics, machine learning, and compliance monitoring, researchers are rejecting surface-level performance claims and instead reconstructing the conditions under which results hold, isolating which components drive behavior, and designing evaluation protocols that distinguish genuine capability from shortcut learning. This matters because it arrives at a moment when the infrastructure race is moving faster than the evaluation frameworks meant to measure progress.

The infrastructure arms race has entered a new phase where control of compute, data, and distribution channels matters more than model capability itself. Anthropic announced $65 billion in annualized revenue, but that number is theoretical without guaranteed access to Nvidia silicon and power infrastructure. Groq stopped building chips and started renting Nvidia capacity. Nvidia is now guaranteeing its chips power OpenAI's data centers through $1.5 billion in SoftBank infrastructure investment and separately pledging $100 billion backing for an OpenAI facility in Ohio. This is vertical integration masquerading as partnership. The real competition is no longer between models. It is between whoever controls the hardware layer, the data layer, and the distribution layer where users interact with them.

The cost structure of using these models is inverting simultaneously. Token prices are collapsing, but inference costs for agentic workflows will increase more than fivefold over the next two years as builders use more tokens per task and agents require orchestration, tool calls, and multi-step reasoning that balloons token counts. Every infrastructure move locks users deeper into a specific stack. Microsoft's AI-assisted development surfaced so many flaws that compatibility testing became the bottleneck on Exchange Server updates. GitHub's eight-hour outage knocked out Actions, APIs, and Copilot for entire user bases dependent on AI-accelerated development. Amazon is destroying rare books to train models. Relay shut down and its team joined Google to build AI directly into the browser. MongoDB is embedding itself as the database layer for coding agents. The infrastructure that was supposed to compress timelines is now a single point of failure.

Developer tools trending on GitHub reveal what actually matters in production: penetration testing for AI applications, vulnerability mapping that lets agents reason about attack surfaces, and codebase indexing that returns answers in milliseconds rather than token-heavy context windows. The second wave of adoption is specialization by domain. Nautilus Trader is a production-grade trading engine written in Rust. Immich is self-hosted photo management that competes directly with cloud services. Career-ops automates job search locally in coding CLIs. None of these tools are trying to be universal platforms. They are solving problems for specific workflows because they are honest about their constraints rather than hiding them behind abstraction. The real differentiation game is moving downstream to developer workflows, on-premise deployment, and operational efficiency rather than upstream to foundational model capability.

Grant Calloway

AI LabsAll labs
From the WireAll feeds
Research PapersAll papers
Don't Drop the BATON: Long-Horizon Robot Manipulation via Agentic Subtask Exploration and Transition-aware Memory cs.RO

Long-horizon robot manipulation chains many contact-rich skills into one multi-stage task. Vision-language-action (VLA) models increasingly master the individual skills, yet the chain still fails: errors compound beyond the policy's ability to correct, and one subtask silently constrains the next. A promising recipe freezes the VLA and puts an LLM agent in charge: it plans in language, moves in free space with analytic primitives, invokes the VLA only for contact-rich segments, and writes adaptation into language memory. Applied to long horizons, it breaks twice. (1) Competence comes from whole-task exploration at test time, whose cost is multiplicative in stages: if one stage needs T episodes, a K-stage task needs about T^K, and a failure does not reveal which stage caused it. (2) It has no representation of transitions: the VLA primitive carries an exit but no entry condition, so a subtask can succeed in a form its successor cannot use. We present BATON. Against (1), BATON makes the subtask the unit of exploration: each is explored in the cheap short-horizon regime and its solution stored in memory; a long-horizon trajectory is then composed from these solutions rather than discovered whole. Cost becomes additive (T*K) and every failure is attributed to a single stage. Against (2), BATON equips exploration with a transition-aware memory. Within a subtask, a verifier agent governs the invocation transition: the VLA is called only after the wrist view confirms the scene is ready. Across subtasks, a handoff transition restores an entry state disturbed by the predecessor's residue, and a lookahead transition selects the strategy whose outcome the successor can inherit. No parameters are updated. On the long-horizon benchmark RoboMemArena, BATON improves task success by 11.6% and cumulative success by 14.9% over the SoTA.

Q-based Variational Inverse Reinforcement Learning cs.LG

The development of safe and beneficial AI requires that systems can learn and act in accordance with human preferences. However, explicitly specifying these preferences by hand is often infeasible. Inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) addresses this challenge by inferring preferences, represented as reward functions, from expert behaviour. We introduce Q-based Variational IRL (QVIRL), a novel Bayesian IRL method that recovers a posterior distribution over rewards from expert demonstrations via primarily learning a variational distribution over optimal Q-values. Unlike previous approaches, QVIRL combines scalability with uncertainty quantification, important for safety-critical applications as well as active learning. We demonstrate QVIRL's strong performance in apprenticeship learning across various tasks, including gridworlds, Lunar Lander, the Highway Environment, and two ATARI games both with static expert data and with active learning. It is the first method for Bayesian IRL that demonstrates training from raw pixel observations.

Improving the matrix multiplication exponent with modern optimization and AlphaEvolve cs.DS

The current best bounds on the matrix multiplication exponent $ω$ are obtained through a refinement of the laser method called combination loss analysis (Duan et al., 2022; Williams et al., 2024; Alman et al., 2025). In this note, we address the optimization problem at the core of this approach and propose several improvements. First, we reformulate the optimization problem allowing us to solve it in a larger setting than was previously possible. Second, we leverage recent advances in machine learning to design a new optimization algorithm for this problem. Finally, we refine the resulting optimization algorithm with AlphaEvolve. Our combined approach yields an upper bound of $ω$ < 2.371177, improving the previous best bound of 2.371339.

Spectral Gaps of Hit-and-Run and Coordinate Hit-and-Run cs.DS

For any convex body $\mathcal{K}\subset\mathbb{R}^{n}$ containing a unit ball, the spectral gap of Hit-and-Run is $Ω(1/(n^2 C_{\mathsf{PI}}))$, where $C_{\mathsf{PI}}$ is the Poincaré constant of the uniform distribution $π$ over $\mathcal{K}$. This implies that Hit-and-Run converges to a distribution within $χ^2$-divergence $\varepsilon$ of the uniform distribution $π$ in $O(n^2 C_{\mathsf{PI}}\log(M/\varepsilon))$ steps from any starting distribution $π_0$ with $M=χ^2(π_{0}\,\|\,π)$, thus refining the known bound of $O(n^2 R^2 \log(M/\varepsilon))$ by Lovász and Vempala (2004) in terms of the outer radius $R$; for nearly isotropic bodies, together with progress on the KLS conjecture, the complexity is $O(n^2\log n\log(M/\varepsilon))$, improving the dimension dependence from cubic to nearly quadratic while maintaining logarithmic dependence on the initial distance. It was an open problem to connect the convergence of Hit-and-Run to Poincaré/KLS constants as was done for the Ball walk by Kannan, Lovász and Simonovits (1997). Unlike Hit-and-Run, the Ball walk has an unavoidable linear dependence on (a stronger notion) of the initial warmness. We directly bound the spectral gap of the Hit-and-Run Markov chain by connecting it to functional isoperimetric constants, inspired by the recent analysis of In-and-Out. Rewriting the spectral gap in terms of dual certificates leads to the Babuška--Aziz constant studied in the analysis of PDEs; it is asymptotically bounded by the improved Poincaré constant, which we show can be bounded in terms of the usual Poincaré constant. The proof is based on duality and calculus, unlike known proofs of convergence for Hit-and-Run which are based on bounding the conductance. The same technique can be applied to Coordinate Hit-and-Run, resulting in a much improved mixing time of $O(n^3C_{\mathsf{PI}}\log(M/\varepsilon))$.

AutoSR: Automatic Symbolic Regression by Searching Research States cs.SC

We introduce Automatic Symbolic Regression (AutoSR), a fully automated system that instantiates Research-Space Symbolic Regression by searching persistent scientific investigations rather than isolated equations. Finite, noisy data often yield numerically competitive expressions that imply very different behavior outside the observed regime, making numerical fit and syntactic complexity insufficient measures of scientific credibility. Existing approaches largely focus on improving expressions, yet the search typically retains little beyond the resulting formula and score, losing the scientific record, such as motivations and probes, that inform what to try next. AutoSR preserves this record in a \textbf{Research State}, coupling each candidate equation with the reasoning, computational evidence, and independent review developed along its branch. Proposer--reviewer agents develop these states under progressive-widening Monte Carlo tree search (PW-MCTS), which allocates computation across competing investigations, while the accumulated research record is ultimately synthesized into a final report that explains the leading relation and the basis for its selection. Across nine selected challenges from two benchmark suites, AutoSR recovers algebraically equivalent relations in every case, including three cp3-bench problems that no published system recovers and six structurally diverse LSR-Transform problems. Overall, AutoSR extends symbolic regression from equation-level search toward automated scientific investigation, allowing scientific knowledge and accumulated evidence to shape both what is explored and how the resulting equation is justified.

An Analytical-Prior Framework for Data-Efficient Prediction of Sound-Reduction Frequencies in Rectangular Side-Branch Helmholtz Resonators cs.LG

High-fidelity finite-element simulations can provide accurate numerical predictions for side-branch resonators, but large simulation datasets are expensive to generate and purely data-driven surrogates may become unreliable when simulation-labelled data are scarce. This study develops an analytical-prior learning framework that reuses a low-cost analytical model to improve data efficiency under limited high-fidelity simulation budgets. Two complementary routes are considered. When the analytical model remains available at inference, it is retained as an explicit baseline and the simulation data are used to learn only the analytical-to-simulation discrepancy. When a self-contained predictor is required, the analytical mapping is first distilled from abundant low-cost evaluations into a learned prior and then calibrated with the limited simulation data. The framework is evaluated on rectangular side-branch Helmholtz resonators using 86 simulation-labelled geometries and 8,998 non-overlapping analytical-only geometries. The analytical model achieved a mean absolute error (MAE) of 1.333 Hz. Direct support vector regression (SVR) achieved 3.375 Hz, while residual SVR reduced the MAE to 0.426 Hz. A direct multilayer perceptron (MLP) achieved 1.109 Hz, whereas analytical-prior pretraining reduced the error to 0.556 Hz with frozen-prior residual adaptation and 0.371 Hz with full-model fine-tuning. Across training budgets of 20 to 70 simulation-labelled cases, both analytical correction and analytical-prior pretraining consistently improved data efficiency relative to direct learning. These results show that analytical prior information can substantially improve high-fidelity prediction when simulation data are scarce, with explicit correction and prior distillation serving complementary deployment needs.

BenchmarksFull tables
Artificial AnalysisIntelligence Index

Composite score across coding, math, and reasoning

#ModelScoretok/s$/1M
1Claude Opus 563.152$10.00
2Claude Fable 562.167$20.00
3GPT-5.6 Sol60.970$11.25
4Grok 4.660.963$3.00
5Kimi K359.740$6.00
SWE-rebench

Agentic coding on real-world software engineering tasks

#ModelScore
1AnthropicFable 5 [high]Model64.5%± 1.41%
2GrokGrok 4.5 [high]Model63.8%± 0.60%
3AnthropicOpus 5 [high]Model63.4%± 1.35%
4Z.aiGLM-5.2 [high]Model62.9%± 1.19%
5OpenAIGPT-5.6 Sol [medium]Model62.3%± 1.83%