The Inference Report

Determining the biological sex of the individuals who created Upper Paleolithic hand stencils remains a challenging problem due to the absence of ground truth, population differences between contemporary and prehistoric groups, and the uncertainty introduced by image degradation. Traditional morphometric methods suffer from high structural overlap across sexes, poor cross-population generalizability, and subjective feature engineering. This study presents an uncertainty-aware deep learning framework for sex attribution in prehistoric hand stencils that explicitly models, propagates, and aggregates uncertainty throughout the analytical pipeline. The methodology combines dual image processing, dual contour extraction, structured silhouette augmentation, model architectural diversity, and ensemble-based decision aggregation. The pipeline generates twelve plausible silhouette realizations per stencil to capture boundary uncertainties, which are processed by two ensembles of ten deep neural networks each (EfficientNet-B3 and MobileViT-S) trained on 14,036 contemporary hand samples. Furthermore, a triangulated validation scheme integrates ensemble predictions with unsupervised 2D latent-space manifold mapping (UMAP + k-NN) and explainable AI spatial attributions (LayerCAM) to ensure anatomical consistency. On contemporary data, ensemble models achieve strong classification performance, with accuracies exceeding 88% in older age groups. When applied to prehistoric stencils, the framework produces both sex predictions and confidence measures of internal agreement, enabling the distinction between morphologically stable and ambiguous cases. Convergence across ensemble predictions, latent-space structure, and interpretability analyses shows that uncertainty can become a measurable component of archaeological inference, enabling robust and reproducible decoding of ancient rock art.

Interactive game world models typically autoregress visual observations directly in pixel or latent space, forcing structured properties such as pose, geometry, and occlusion to be implicitly maintained by the same generative sequence. Over long horizons, errors in these latent world properties accumulate, making consistency and controllability fragile. We explicitly model the evolving world state, delegate exact geometric computation to a fixed, zero-parameter renderer, and leave the neural model to synthesize appearance. We instantiate this idea as Marionette, a world model for interactive games with articulated characters. First, a two-stage autoregressive dynamics model predicts an explicit and interpretable 276-dimensional 3D world state comprising multi-entity articulated skeletons, metric root trajectories, and rotations. Second, a zero-parameter graphics bridge converts the predicted state into pose-control videos, computing world-space geometry and occlusion in closed form. Third, a control-conditioned video-diffusion observation model synthesizes photorealistic RGB observations from the resulting structured controls. Our experiments establish two properties of Marionette. First, the predicted world state is directly controllable. Forcing a mismatched action stream changes root-aligned joint error by 31% across 48 held-out segments. Second, long-horizon behaviour is determined in the state, and can be repaired there. Left free, the two generated characters drift to 21.2 m apart (recorded sessions stay near 5 m) and a third of frames show ground penetration. Two rules imposed on the explicit state, a terrain collider and a separation cap, cut penetration by 66% and keep the pair engaged, with no change to the observation model. Routing appearance through the predicted state costs no fidelity we can detect, at an FVD of 831 against 799 for recorded pose.

This study investigates the methodological and theoretical properties of session handover in applications that use large language models. A task may continue in a new session when the context reaches the model's input limit, when the application restarts, or when another agent is asked to finish the task. The application must then decide which information from the earlier session to pass on. We formulate handover as the transfer of a task-relative in-context learning (ICL) state and distinguish exact recovery of earlier material from preservation of the target distribution. Under an exogeneity condition, predictive equivalence characterizes the coarsest deterministic sufficient handover and gives a fixed-length bit requirement. The analysis isolates the effects of the memory constraint, the writer, and the continuation procedure, and quantifies the cost of writing before the realized downstream query is known. We propose a three-part record that stores decisions and constraints exactly, uses task-justified statistics for repeated evidence, and retains original observations whose effect is not preserved by those statistics. Gaussian linear regression gives an exact finite-dimensional handover and finite-bit perturbation bounds, while nonparametric regression gives upper and lower bounds that relate memory to squared prediction error. These results provide a theory and method for deciding what a handover must retain and how its memory requirement depends on the continuation task.

Large language model (LLM) agents are increasingly used to modernize the legacy Fortran underlying production scientific software, but validation of these transformations emphasizes nominal executions and may not test whether a modernization preserves the original code's response to faults, perturbations, and reduced precision. We present a differential fault-injection validation method: a harness instruments the shared self-consistent-field driver of GAMESS at twelve sites and applies identical, deterministic faults to the original and LLM-modernized implementations, isolating the converted integral kernels. Across more than 2,200 runs, transient-fault absorption costs match a contraction-based model (predicted slopes 0.74 and 1.49 iterations per bit; measured 0.82 and 1.50), persistent perturbations halve final-energy error per additional bit, and the campaigns expose phase-dependent parallel deadlocks and false convergence under reduced precision. The original and modernized kernels agree in all 200 paired injections, and a measurement-guided synchronization change composes with the modernization, matching in all 40 pairs.

As AI systems make more morally loaded decisions across society, one response has been moral preference elicitation. In this approach, researchers poll participants on hypothetical dilemmas and use the aggregated votes to train a policy that an AI model then applies at scale. Before any vote is cast, developers make three key choices in the moral AI elicitation pipeline: feature scoping, voter sampling, and question framing. In other words, they decide which features go to a vote, which voters to include, and how to present the question. These choices are often opaque, undocumented, and treated as technical details rather than normative ones. We examine each of these choices within a common empirical study and show that each can shape the preferences produced by moral AI elicitation. Across two phases (N = 809) in three deployment contexts (i.e., AI kidney allocation, AI agents simulating absent workers, and generative AI depictions of the deceased), we examine the three main stages of the moral AI elicitation pipeline. First, morally relevant features shift across contexts. This suggests that feature schemas should not be assumed to transfer across deployment domains. Second, preferences differ by political ideology for roughly one-third of features, with some differences reversing direction. The ideological composition of the voter pool can therefore affect the resulting aggregated preference profile. Third, the wording of the elicitation question can narrow or widen ideological gaps by up to a full scale point. The framing conditions also change how moral foundations are associated with participants' judgments. Taken together, these findings suggest that voting-based alignment cannot deliver fair or transparent AI by aggregation alone; at minimum, each stage of the moral AI elicitation pipeline should be audited and disclosed.

High-order multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) detection requires efficient search over a large discrete symbol space while producing reliable soft information for channel decoding. This paper develops a learning-to-transition (L2T) framework that formulates MIMO detection as a stochastic sequence of complete-vector transitions. At each transition, a channel-coupled Transformer updates both the instance embedding and the sampling policy, while a blockwise autoregressive factorization captures inter-stream dependence with moderate sequential complexity. For hard-output detection, a transition network is applied recursively and trained through a residual-to-BER curriculum, which first learns the MIMO search geometry from the exact residual metric and then aligns the policy with transmitted-bit accuracy. For soft-output reception, the well-trained hard policy is cloned at the parameter level into every layer of an untied soft-input soft-output iterative detection and decoding (IDD) receiver. This tied-to-untied transfer preserves the learned zero-prior search dynamics while enabling layer- and round-specific specialization under decoder feedback. Within each IDD round, decoder priors tilt candidate generation according to Bayes' rule, and likelihood-weighted terminal hypotheses produce posterior and extrinsic log-likelihood ratios for LDPC decoding. A multi-stage training strategy further stabilizes the hard-to-soft transfer by progressively exposing the receiver to synthetic and in-loop decoder-generated priors.