The Inference Report

Advances in machine learning (ML) have created new opportunities to complement traditional operations research (OR) methods. In particular, transformer models can capture complex interactions in token sequences by mapping tokens into a high-dimensional embedding space and propagating contextual information via attention. This makes them a candidate to model non-permutation flow shop scheduling with secondary resources as a next-token prediction task, where tokens represent job-machine-secondary resource tuples. For training, mixed-integer linear programming (MILP)-generated schedules are tokenized and used as next-token prediction data. During inference, partial token sequences (prefixes) are randomly generated and completed by the trained transformer through constrained decoding. A computational study is conducted on a flow shop with 8 jobs, 4 machines, and 3 secondary resources, where jobs are selected from a fixed pool of 20 jobs that is sampled during training and provides the candidates during prefix completion. The transformer achieves better solution quality (smaller makespans) compared to a genetic algorithm (GA), the NEH heuristic, and random search. It is outperformed only by the MILP model and the iterated greedy (IG) heuristic. The study concludes that transformer models can, to some extent, learn patterns from MILP-optimized non-permutation flow shop schedules and that transformer-based scheduling represents an interesting direction for future research, particularly in settings with a fixed, recurring job set.

Uncertainty quantification from finite data is central to machine learning, optimization, and automation systems, where decisions must remain reliable under limited samples and test-time distribution shift. Conformal prediction (CP) and distributionally robust optimization (DRO) offer two complementary approaches: CP constructs data-dependent prediction sets with distribution-free finite-sample validity under exchangeability, while DRO optimizes worst-case performance over an ambiguity set around an empirical distribution. We develop a unified probabilistic perspective on CP and DRO by viewing both as ways to turn finite calibration data into a data-dependent quantile estimator that a test score falls below with high probability. From this perspective, CP and DRO correct the empirical quantile along two coordinates of the same family of estimators: CP inflates the quantile level, whereas DRO shifts the quantile value through an ambiguity radius. Both methods provide the same calibration-conditional guarantee for the true distribution, requiring the target coverage to hold with high probability over the calibration sample. Their constructions differ, however: CP uses a closed-form, distribution-free level correction, while DRO uses a value-space correction whose certified radius depends on properties of the unknown distribution and additionally guarantees coverage uniformly over the ambiguity set. This distinction emerges in the tails of the score distribution. Because CP relies on sparse upper-tail order statistics of the calibration samples, its level inflation barely moves the estimator when those samples are dense near the target quantile but overshoots when they are sparse, whereas a well-chosen DRO radius corrects in value space and may avoid this overshoot.

We study decentralized online optimization of upper-linearizable payoffs over an action set under efficient separation access, with applications to online continuous diminishing-return (DR) submodular maximization. We propose Decentralized Barrier Follow-the-Regularized-Leader (Dec-BFTRL), and evaluate each agent's played action against the average of all local objectives. Each agent maps an internal iterate to a feasible action through an approximate gauge projection, communicates only a cumulative surrogate-gradient dual state, and invokes the local HybridNewton procedure to approximately minimize its post-communication BFTRL potential. For every agent, we achieve expected network-aggregate regret of $\widetilde O(\sqrt{T})$. Over $T$ rounds, each agent uses $T$ neighbor-mixing steps and $\widetilde O(T)$ separation-oracle calls. We give four wrapper instantiations covering three DR-submodular maximization problems.

Accurate online traffic prediction is essential for intelligent transportation systems, where forecasting must be performed continuously under imperfect sensing conditions. Missing observations and anomalous disturbances make this task challenging, particularly when prediction relies on a single traffic view. This paper proposes a Multi-View Coupled Tensor Decomposition (MVCTD) model for online traffic prediction from imperfect multi-view observations, such as speed, flow, and occupancy. The proposed model uses coupled tensor decomposition to build a structured latent forecasting space, in which shared spatial structures across traffic views and view-specific temporal dynamics are jointly modeled. A group sparse regularization is further introduced to capture correlated abnormal responses induced by real traffic anomalies and thus reduce their influence on forecasts. For streaming deployment, MVCTD performs iterative refinement only on the current latent tensor, while the remaining model variables are updated by lightweight closed-form steps based on summarized historical information, thereby avoiding repeated optimization over the full historical sequence. Experiments on real-world traffic datasets demonstrate that MVCTD achieves accurate forecasts with favorable runtime under severe missingness, confirming its suitability for online traffic prediction.

We consider optimization applications with unknown parameters where the decision maker believes that the optimal value of the nominal problem-the optimization problem they would have solved if the true parameters were known-is unlikely to be large. This belief derives from information that humans have that is not captured in datasets, obtained from domain knowledge and interacting with the physical world. We propose an approach to evaluating policies that provides tighter performance guarantees if the decision maker's belief happens to be correct. Our main result shows that if computing a policy's worst-case performance is a convex program, then the value of human expertise-the maximum improvement in performance guarantees that can be obtained from the belief about the nominal problem-is equal to the minimax gap of a max-min problem. We illustrate our developments in assortment optimization and shortest path problems.

Plasticity under changing environments is central to both evolutionary biology and continual learning. Motivated by recent work on genotype--phenotype maps, we study a minimal deep-learning analogue where a network is trained alternately on two Boolean label sets, and ask which biological controls of plasticity survive the translation to gradient descent. Reinterpreting four proposed biological factors as quantities of training dynamics, we find the system reduces to two dimensionless controls: the task disagreement $r$, the fraction of disagreeing labels, and the reach $ηT$, the product of learning rate and switching period. We derive two bounds on plasticity: $r$ alone fixes an extremal geometric floor on the utopia distance, while $r$ and $ηT$ jointly bound forgetting. Across 9,720 trajectories, an ANOVA confirms that $r$, $η$, and $T$ dominate, while the effect of neutral-set size (emphasized in the biological setting) is negligible. The optimal reach itself follows an approximate inverse power law $ηT^{*}\propto r^{-1.18}$, yielding a heuristic that sets the optimal reach $ηT^*$ from the task disagreement alone. The analogy that survives is therefore dynamical rather than geometric, and our setting enables a view of plasticity through the lens of other driven systems in physics and engineering.