The Inference Report

May 26, 2026

A research paper on enforcing mathematical structure into neural networks before training begins rather than correcting it afterward deserves attention it won't receive, because the industry is moving in the opposite direction. The market is consolidating around speed and scale, not rigor. DeepSeek collapsed the pricing structure that was supposed to sustain the AI economy by cutting V4-Pro costs by 75 percent in a month. Google released Agent Executor as open source and reports that 75 percent of new code is now AI-generated. ClickUp is replacing hundreds of employees with AI agents. The narrative has completed its arc: from "will AI replace workers" to "it's already happening." The Pope issued an encyclical warning of concentrated power and a tech elite shaping the world to its advantage. Nobody in the industry is listening because the incentives don't require them to.

The infrastructure layer is being commoditized and opened simultaneously. Google's Agent Executor, Anthropic's Model Context Window protocol with thousands of emerging servers, and DeepSeek's aggressive pricing all point the same direction: the moat isn't in the model anymore, it's in the operational stack and the data flowing through it. AMD is attacking the cloud inference monopoly by enabling 70B and 100B parameter models to run on local hardware without quality degradation, eroding the rent that forced developers toward paid endpoints. OpenAI consolidates the consumer interface and publisher relationships through its Brazilian journalism deal. Hugging Face positions itself as the place where developers operationalize models once they can run them cheaply. The pattern isn't about capability announcements. It's about where the margin lives and who extracts value from the transition.

Talent and leverage are consolidating in predictable ways. ByteDance is issuing special stock tied to its AI unit to prevent poaching, acknowledging that the real scarcity is engineering talent, not capital. Trump's AI safety executive order was killed in three Wednesday-night phone calls by Musk, Zuckerberg, and Sacks. Anthropic closed a 30 billion-plus round the same Saturday. The companies building at scale and shipping product are accumulating power and capital. The people warning about concentration of power are issuing manifestos that read like they're describing a problem that already happened. On GitHub, the ecosystem is consolidating around concrete problems: how to make AI coding agents actually useful, how to index and reason over code at scale, and how to keep AI outputs from being generic. The traction reflects a shift from "which model is best" to "how do we make any model behave the way we want."

Grant Calloway

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Research Papers — FocusedAll papers
Wavelet-Based Observables for Koopman Analysis: An Extended Dynamic Mode Decomposition Framework math.NA

We present an in-depth analysis of the Koopman semigroup via wavelet transform. Towards this goal, we start by introducing the wavelet-based observables and show that they are eigenfunctions of the Koopman semigroup when this semigroup is considered over the Banach space of continuous functions on a compact forward-invariant set endowed with the supremum norm. We then construct closed-form expressions of the action of the Koopman semigroup and its resolvent in terms of these observables. To approximate the action of Koopman semigroup numerically, we combine Extended Dynamic Mode Decomposition (EDMD) with the proposed wavelet-based observables leading to the Wavelet Dynamic Mode Decomposition via Continuous Wavelet Transform (cWDMD) algorithm. We validate our theoretical results on two numerical examples.

NSPOD: acceleratingthe convergence ofKrylov-based iterative linearsolvers via approximated PODs math.NA

The convergence of Krylov-based linear iterative solvers applied to parametric partial differential equations (PDEs) is often highly sensitive to the domain, its discretization, the location/values of the applied Dirichlet/Neumann boundary conditions, body forces and material properties, among others. We have previously introduced hybridization of classical linear iterative solvers with neural operators for specific geometries, but they tend to not perform well on geometries not previously seen during training. We partially addressed this challenge by introducing the deep operator network Geo-DeepONet and hybridizing it with Krylov-based iterative linear solvers, which, despite learning effectively across arbitrary unstructured meshes without requiring retraining, led to only modest reductions in iterations compared to state-of-the-art preconditioners. In this study we introduce Neural Subspace Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (NSPOD), a multigrid-like deep operator network-based preconditioner which can dramatically reduce the number of iterations needed for convergence in Krylov-based linear iterative solvers, even when compared to state-of-the-art methods such as algebraic multigrid preconditioners. We demonstrate its efficiency via numerical experiments on a linearized version of solid mechanics PDEs applied to unstructured domains obtained from complex CAD geometries. We expect that the findings in this study lead to more efficient hybrid preconditioners that can match, or possibly even surpass, the convergence properties of the current gold standard preconditioning methods for solid mechanics PDEs.

Convex-Geometric Error Bounds for Positive-Weight Kernel Quadrature math.NA

Kernel quadrature can exploit RKHS spectral structure and outperform Monte Carlo on smooth integrands, but optimized quadrature weights are generally signed and may be numerically unstable. We study whether spectral acceleration remains possible when the weights are constrained to be positive, i.e., simplex weights. In the exact-target fixed-pool setting, an evaluated i.i.d. candidate pool of size $N$ is already available and the task is to reweight it so as to approximate the kernel mean embedding. We show that this positive reweighting problem is governed not by the equal-weight empirical average, but by the random convex hull generated by the pool. Our main geometric result shows that the mean of a bounded $d$-dimensional random vector can be approximated by a convex combination of $N$ i.i.d. samples at accuracy $O(d/N)$ with high probability, sharper than equal-weight averaging in the fixed-dimensional regime. We transfer this $d$-dimensional convex-hull approximation to full RKHS worst-case error through an augmented Mercer-truncation argument. The resulting positive-weight KQ bounds consist of a spectral tail term and a finite-sample convex-hull term, yielding Monte-Carlo-beating rates in favorable spectral regimes, including near-$O(1/N)$ rates up to logarithmic factors under exponential spectral decay. We also provide a constructive Frank--Wolfe algorithm that operates directly on the pool atoms, maintains simplex weights, and admits an explicit optimization-error bound.

Random test functions, $H^{-1}$ norm equivalence, and stochastic variational physics-informed neural networks math.NA

The dual norm characterisation of weak solutions of second-order linear elliptic partial differential equations is mathematically natural but computationally intractable: evaluating the $H^{-1}$ norm of a residual requires a supremum over an infinite-dimensional function space. We prove that the $H^{-1}$ norm of any functional is equivalent to its expected squared evaluation against a random test function whose distribution depends only on the domain. Crucially, realisations of this random test function have negative Sobolev regularity for $d \geq 2$, yet this roughness is not an obstacle: averaging over the distribution exactly recovers the correct weak topology, independently of the differential operator. This equivalence introduces the notion of stochastically weak solutions, which coincide with classical weak solutions, and motivates stochastic variational physics-informed neural networks (SV-PINNs): neural networks trained by minimising an empirical approximation of the stochastic norm of the PDE residual. Although instantiated here with neural networks as trial spaces, the underlying principle is independent of the approximation architecture and suggests a broader paradigm for numerical methods based on stochastic rather than deterministic test spaces. The framework extends naturally to higher-order elliptic, parabolic and hyperbolic equations and to abstract operator equations on Hilbert spaces. As a proof of concept, we present numerical experiments on eight challenging second-order linear elliptic problems spanning high-frequency and multi-scale solutions, indefinite operators, variable coefficients, and non-standard domains, in which SV-PINNs consistently and significantly outperform standard PINNs, recovering solutions to within one percent relative error in hundreds of L-BFGS steps.

GeoFunFlow-3D: A Physics-Guided Generative Flow Matching Framework for High-Fidelity 3D Aerodynamic Inference over Complex Geometries math.NA

Deep generative models and neural operators have demonstrated significant potential for 3D aerodynamic inference. However, they often face inherent challenges in maintaining physical consistency and preserving high-frequency features, primarily due to spectral bias and gradient conflicts within the governing equations. To address these issues, we propose GeoFunFlow-3D, a physics-guided generative flow matching framework. Temporally, we utilize optimal transport theory to build the generation path, ensuring stable training dynamics. Spectrally, we introduce a high-order discrete engine without automatic differentiation (No-AD) to reduce gradient stiffness. Spatially, a topology-aware super-resolution module (SATO) is employed to rigorously enforce physical laws in localized regions such as shock waves. We evaluated our framework on complex industrial datasets. On the BlendedNet dataset, the model successfully avoids mode collapse even under sparse data conditions. For the NASA Rotor37 test, it accurately captures 3D detached shock structures. Compared to conventional operators, GeoFunFlow-3D significantly improves accuracy, reducing the pressure field error (RRMSE) to 0.0215 while maintaining competitive inference efficiency. Ultimately, this work provides a reliable, geometry-driven approach for generating high-dimensional fluid fields.

Adaptive-Distribution Randomized Neural Networks for PDEs: A Low-Dimensional Distribution-Learning Framework math.NA

Randomized neural networks (RaNNs) are attractive for partial differential equations (PDEs) because they replace expensive end-to-end training with a linear least-squares solve over randomized hidden features. Their practical performance, however, depends strongly on the sampling distribution of the hidden-layer parameters, which is usually chosen heuristically and problem by problem. This distribution sensitivity is a central bottleneck in randomized neural PDE solvers. In this work, we propose Adaptive-Distribution Randomized Neural Networks (AD-RaNN), a framework that promotes randomized feature generation from a fixed heuristic choice to a low-dimensional adaptive optimization problem. Instead of training all hidden weights and biases, AD-RaNN parameterizes the hidden-feature sampling distribution by a low-dimensional vector p and optimizes only p, thereby preserving the least-squares structure of RaNNs while reducing manual distribution tuning. The method uses a two-stage strategy: ridge-regularized reduced training for stable distribution-parameter optimization, followed by an unregularized least-squares refit for final solution recovery. We develop two adaptive mechanisms, PDE-Driven Adaptive Distribution (PDAD) and Data-Driven Adaptive Distribution (DDAD), and deploy them in space-time solvers, discrete-time solvers, and operator-learning models. We also incorporate an adaptive layer-growth enhancement for localized structures. For the reduced optimization problem, we establish well-posedness of the reduced objectives, consistency of ridge-regularized minimizers, an efficient gradient formula, and a practical lower-bound estimate for the ridge parameter. Numerical experiments on benchmark problems show that AD-RaNN provides an effective distribution-level adaptation mechanism, reduces reliance on hand-crafted hidden-feature distributions, and achieves strong empirical accuracy.

BenchmarksFull tables
Artificial AnalysisIntelligence Index

Composite score across coding, math, and reasoning

#ModelScoretok/s$/1M
1GPT-5.560.271$11.25
2Claude Opus 4.757.349$10.94
3Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview57.2129$4.50
4GPT-5.456.884$5.63
5Qwen3.7 Max56.6198$3.75
SWE-rebench

Agentic coding on real-world software engineering tasks

#ModelScore
1Claude Opus 4.665.3%
2gpt-5.2-2025-12-11-medium64.4%
3GLM-562.8%
4Junie62.8%
5gpt-5.4-2026-03-05-medium62.8%
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