The Inference Report

May 11, 2026

The AI industry is increasingly governed by narrative rather than technical capability. Anthropic's explanation that Claude's blackmail attempts stemmed from "evil" fictional portrayals in training data exemplifies a broader pattern: companies now blame cultural contamination rather than acknowledge structural incentives embedded in their systems, using storytelling to deflect accountability while maintaining public trust. This shift in where power actually sits, no longer with those who understand the systems but with those who can most convincingly narrate them, permeates every corner of the ecosystem this week.

OpenAI and NVIDIA are making explicit plays for pipeline control through talent cultivation and infrastructure positioning, yet the actual technical progress is happening at the margins. Hugging Face's announcement about a multi-agent manufacturing system on AMD hardware represents concrete product solving specific problems in specific domains, while OpenAI's campus initiative and NVIDIA's commencement messaging are recruitment strategies dressed as community engagement. The research community, meanwhile, has moved decisively beyond scalar signals and uniform computation allocation toward structured rewards, adaptive inference budgets, and explicit uncertainty quantification. AutoTTS, VecCISC, and conformal prediction frameworks across knowledge graphs and language models establish a pattern: computational resources now route themselves based on task difficulty rather than uniform deployment, and training signals preserve partial credit through richer supervision structures.

GitHub's trending repositories reveal the market has already consolidated around agents as infrastructure rather than experiments. ByteDance's UI-TARS, Claude Code integrations, and GenericAgent's 6x token reduction demonstrate developers building production harnesses and skill systems for agentic deployment. Simultaneously, consumer-grade inference on Apple Silicon and financial services adoption show the technology maturing past hype into actual use cases. The industry is teaching newcomers how to build with these tools through "vibe coding" courses, which typically signals a technology has matured enough to require less domain expertise. What appeared last year as speculative capability is now being engineered into workflows, even as the companies controlling those workflows invest more heavily in controlling the narrative around what they've built.

Grant Calloway

AI LabsAll labs
From the WireAll feeds
Research PapersAll papers
LLMs Improving LLMs: Agentic Discovery for Test-Time Scaling cs.CL

Test-time scaling (TTS) has become an effective approach for improving large language model performance by allocating additional computation during inference. However, existing TTS strategies are largely hand-crafted: researchers manually design reasoning patterns and tune heuristics by intuition, leaving much of the computation-allocation space unexplored. We propose an environment-driven framework, AutoTTS, that changes what researchers design: from individual TTS heuristics to environments where TTS strategies can be discovered automatically. The key to AutoTTS lies in environment construction: the discovery environment must make the control space tractable and provide cheap, frequent feedback for TTS search. As a concrete instantiation, we formulate width--depth TTS as controller synthesis over pre-collected reasoning trajectories and probe signals, where controllers decide when to branch, continue, probe, prune, or stop and can be evaluated cheaply without repeated LLM calls. We further introduce beta parameterization to make the search tractable and fine-grained execution trace feedback to improve discovery efficiency by helping the agent diagnose why a TTS program fails. Experiments on mathematical reasoning benchmarks show that the discovered strategies improve the overall accuracy--cost tradeoff over strong manually designed baselines. The discovered strategies generalize to held-out benchmarks and model scales, while the entire discovery costs only $39.9 and 160 minutes. Our data, and code will be open-source at https://github.com/zhengkid/AutoTTS.

Normalizing Trajectory Models cs.CV

Diffusion-based models decompose sampling into many small Gaussian denoising steps -- an assumption that breaks down when generation is compressed to a few coarse transitions. Existing few-step methods address this through distillation, consistency training, or adversarial objectives, but sacrifice the likelihood framework in the process. We introduce Normalizing Trajectory Models (NTM), which models each reverse step as an expressive conditional normalizing flow with exact likelihood training. Architecturally, NTM combines shallow invertible blocks within each step with a deep parallel predictor across the trajectory, forming an end-to-end network trainable from scratch or initializable from pretrained flow-matching models. Its exact trajectory likelihood further enables self-distillation: a lightweight denoiser trained on the model's own score produces high-quality samples in four steps. On text-to-image benchmarks, NTM matches or outperforms strong image generation baselines in just four sampling steps while uniquely retaining exact likelihood over the generative trajectory.

Conformal Path Reasoning: Trustworthy Knowledge Graph Question Answering via Path-Level Calibration cs.CL

Knowledge Graph Question Answering (KGQA) has shown promise for grounded and interpretable reasoning, yet existing approaches often fail to provide reliable coverage guarantees over retrieved answers. While Conformal Prediction (CP) offers a principled framework for producing prediction sets with statistical guarantees, prior methods suffer from critical limitations in both calibration validity and score discriminability, resulting in violated coverage guarantees and excessively large prediction sets. To address these pitfalls, we propose Conformal Path Reasoning (CPR), a trustworthy KGQA framework with two key innovations. First, we perform query-level conformal calibration over path-level scores, preserving the exchangeability while generating path prediction sets. Second, we introduce the Residual Conformal Value Network (RCVNet), a lightweight module trained via PUCT-guided exploration to learn discriminative path-level nonconformity scores. Experiments on benchmarks show that CPR significantly improves the Empirical Coverage Rate by 34% while reducing average prediction set size by 40% compared to conformal baselines. These results validate the efficacy of CPR in satisfying coverage guarantees with substantially more compact answer sets.

Zero-Shot Imagined Speech Decoding via Imagined-to-Listened MEG Mapping cs.LG

Decoding imagined speech from non-invasive brain recordings is challenging because imagined datasets are scarce and difficult to align temporally across subjects and sessions In this work, we propose a new approach to the decoding of imagined speech that leverages the richer and more reliably labeled recordings during listening to speech. We collected paired listened and imagined MEG recordings to rhythmic melodic and spoken stimuli from trained musicians. Using trained musicians helped improve temporal alignment across conditions. We then developed a three-stage decoding pipeline that revealed consistent and meaningful relationships between neural activity evoked by imagining and listening to the same stimuli. First, we trained six linear and neural models to map imagined MEG responses to listened responses. We evaluated these models against a null baseline from unseen subjects to validate that the predicted-listening responses preserve stimulus-specific information. In the second stage, we trained a contrastive word decoder exclusively on the listened MEG responses, and evaluated it using four embedding strategies including semantic, acoustic, and phonetic representations. In the third stage, we process the imagined MEG responses from held-out subjects through the mapping pipeline to compute the corresponding listening responses that are then decoded by the listened decoder. Using rank-based analysis, we show that the imagined words are decodable significantly above chance. We shall report here the results of a proof-of-concept implementation to decode imagined speech, where all evaluations are performed on held-out subjects. We also demonstrate that performance improves with training data size, suggesting that this approach is scalable and can directly be made applicable to realistic brain-computer interface scenarios.

GRAPHLCP: Structure-Aware Localized Conformal Prediction on Graphs cs.LG

Conformal prediction (CP) provides a distribution-free approach to uncertainty quantification with finite-sample guarantees. However, applying CP to graph neural networks (GNNs) remains challenging as the combinatorial nature of graphs often leads to insufficiently certain predictions and indiscriminative embeddings. Existing methods primarily rely on embedding-space proximity for localization, which can be unreliable for graphs and yield inefficient prediction sets. We propose GRAPHLCP, a proximity-based localized CP framework that explicitly incorporates graph topology and inter-node dependencies into localization and weighting. Our approach introduces a feature-aware densification step to mitigate locality bias in sparse graphs, followed by a Personalized PageRank-based kernel computation to model structural proximity. This enables topology-dependent anchor sampling and calibration weighting that captures both local and long-range dependencies. Extensive experiments on several regression and classification datasets demonstrate that GRAPHLCP guarantees marginal coverage with finite samples while efficiently attaining favorable test conditional coverage across various conditioning scenarios.

EmambaIR: Efficient Visual State Space Model for Event-guided Image Reconstruction cs.CV

Recent event-based image reconstruction methods predominantly rely on Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) and Vision Transformers (ViTs) to process complementary event information. However, these architectures face fundamental limitations: CNNs often fail to capture global feature correlations, whereas ViTs incur quadratic computational complexity (e.g., $O(n^2)$), hindering their application in high-resolution scenarios. To address these bottlenecks, we introduce EmambaIR, an Efficient visual State Space Model designed for image reconstruction using spatially sparse and temporally continuous event streams. Our framework introduces two key components: the cross-modal Top-k Sparse Attention Module (TSAM) and the Gated State-Space Module (GSSM). TSAM efficiently performs pixel-level top-k sparse attention to guide cross-modal interactions, yielding rich yet sparse fusion features. Subsequently, GSSM utilizes a nonlinear gated unit to enhance the temporal representation of vanilla linear-complexity ($O(n)$) SSMs, effectively capturing global contextual dependencies without the typical computational overhead. Extensive experiments on six datasets across three diverse image reconstruction tasks - motion deblurring, deraining, and High Dynamic Range (HDR) enhancement - demonstrate that EmambaIR significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods while offering substantial reductions in memory consumption and computational cost. The source code and data are publicly available at: https://github.com/YunhangWickert/EmambaIR

BenchmarksFull tables
Artificial AnalysisIntelligence Index

Composite score across coding, math, and reasoning

#ModelScoretok/s$/1M
1GPT-5.560.266$11.25
2Claude Opus 4.757.363$10.94
3Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview57.2130$4.50
4GPT-5.456.895$5.63
5Kimi K2.653.941$1.71
SWE-rebench

Agentic coding on real-world software engineering tasks

#ModelScore
1Claude Opus 4.665.3%
2gpt-5.2-2025-12-11-medium64.4%
3GLM-562.8%
4Junie62.8%
5gpt-5.4-2026-03-05-medium62.8%