The Inference Report

May 9, 2026

OpenAI is publishing the operational details of its code sandboxing and telemetry systems, Cloudflare announced its first major layoff citing AI efficiency gains, and enterprise teams are scrambling to build infrastructure that doesn't exist yet to manage the chaos created by rapid agent deployment. These three developments tell the same story from different angles: AI is moving from research artifact to operational system, and the winners are not the companies deploying agents but the companies selling the tools to manage them safely and the companies capturing margin by eliminating the workers those agents displace.

The temporal asymmetry is stark. When Cloudflare cut support staff because AI made their roles redundant, the company captured productivity gains immediately as margin expansion while workers absorbed displacement on a staggered timeline. Oracle and Sony are following the same playbook: extract efficiency, minimize severance friction, move fast. But downstream, a different market is forming. Browserbase, Mastra, Fireworks AI, and Corridor are building the control layers that enterprises will need once they realize that speed creates operational risk. Code for America is piloting AI tools with Anthropic to help caseworkers, and Boston Public Schools imposed a blanket prohibition on non-sanctioned AI use and mandated vetting for approved tools. The pattern repeats: deployment creates chaos, someone has to clean it up, and the companies selling cleanup infrastructure are positioned to extract significant value from the transition. Capital is already rotating accordingly. Chris Hohn's TCI slashed its Microsoft stake from 10 percent to 1 percent citing AI disruption, while cloud giants are securing enormous volumes of DRAM and high-bandwidth memory ahead of competitors, locking in favorable terms and ensuring their own growth won't be constrained by scarcity. Meanwhile, the research and developer communities are converging on a single insight: agents work better when they're specialized, connected to real tools, and embedded in systems designed for failure. The trending GitHub repositories show the market consolidating around agent orchestration and lifecycle management rather than novel architectures. Generic agent frameworks are losing mindshare to focused tools solving specific coordination problems, and local inference optimization is beating cloud costs at scale. The infrastructure is maturing faster than the agents themselves, which means the next phase of value capture will go to whoever controls the plumbing between models, providers, and verification systems.

Grant Calloway

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From the WireAll feeds
Research PapersAll papers
ActCam: Zero-Shot Joint Camera and 3D Motion Control for Video Generation cs.CV

For artistic applications, video generation requires fine-grained control over both performance and cinematography, i.e., the actor's motion and the camera trajectory. We present ActCam, a zero-shot method for video generation that jointly transfers character motion from a driving video into a new scene and enables per-frame control of intrinsic and extrinsic camera parameters. ActCam builds on any pretrained image-to-video diffusion model that accepts conditioning in terms of scene depth and character pose. Given a source video with a moving character and a target camera motion, ActCam generates pose and depth conditions that remain geometrically consistent across frames. We then run a single sampling process with a two-phase conditioning schedule: early denoising steps condition on both pose and sparse depth to enforce scene structure, after which depth is dropped and pose-only guidance refines high-frequency details without over-constraining the generation. We evaluate ActCam on multiple benchmarks spanning diverse character motions and challenging viewpoint changes. We find that, compared to pose-only control and other pose and camera methods, ActCam improves camera adherence and motion fidelity, and is preferred in human evaluations, especially under large viewpoint changes. Our results highlight that careful camera-consistent conditioning and staged guidance can enable strong joint camera and motion control without training. Project page: https://elkhomar.github.io/actcam/.

UniPool: A Globally Shared Expert Pool for Mixture-of-Experts cs.LG

Modern Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architectures allocate expert capacity through a rigid per-layer rule: each transformer layer owns a separate expert set. This convention couples depth scaling with linear expert-parameter growth and assumes that every layer needs isolated expert capacity. However, recent analyses and our routing probe challenge this allocation rule: replacing a deeper layer's learned top-k router with uniform random routing drops downstream accuracy by only 1.0-1.6 points across multiple production MoE models. Motivated by this redundancy, we propose UniPool, an MoE architecture that treats expert capacity as a global architectural budget by replacing per-layer expert ownership with a single shared pool accessed by independent per-layer routers. To enable stable and balanced training under sharing, we introduce a pool-level auxiliary loss that balances expert utilization across the entire pool, and adopt NormRouter to provide sparse and scale-stable routing into the shared expert pool. Across five LLaMA-architecture model scales (182M, 469M, 650M, 830M, and 978M parameters) trained on 30B tokens from the Pile, UniPool consistently improves validation loss and perplexity over the matched vanilla MoE baselines. Across these scales, UniPool reduces validation loss by up to 0.0386 relative to vanilla MoE. Beyond raw loss improvement, our results identify pool size as an explicit depth-scaling hyperparameter: reduced-pool UniPool variants using only 41.6%-66.7% of the vanilla expert-parameter budget match or outperform layer-wise MoE at the tested scales. This shows that, under a shared-pool design, expert parameters need not grow linearly with depth; they can grow sublinearly while remaining more efficient and effective than vanilla MoE. Further analysis shows that UniPool's benefits compose with finer-grained expert decomposition.

BAMI: Training-Free Bias Mitigation in GUI Grounding cs.CV

GUI grounding is a critical capability for enabling GUI agents to execute tasks such as clicking and dragging. However, in complex scenarios like the ScreenSpot-Pro benchmark, existing models often suffer from suboptimal performance. Utilizing the proposed \textbf{Masked Prediction Distribution (MPD)} attribution method, we identify that the primary sources of errors are twofold: high image resolution (leading to precision bias) and intricate interface elements (resulting in ambiguity bias). To address these challenges, we introduce \textbf{Bias-Aware Manipulation Inference (BAMI)}, which incorporates two key manipulations, coarse-to-fine focus and candidate selection, to effectively mitigate these biases. Our extensive experimental results demonstrate that BAMI significantly enhances the accuracy of various GUI grounding models in a training-free setting. For instance, applying our method to the TianXi-Action-7B model boosts its accuracy on the ScreenSpot-Pro benchmark from 51.9\% to 57.8\%. Furthermore, ablation studies confirm the robustness of the BAMI approach across diverse parameter configurations, highlighting its stability and effectiveness. Code is available at https://github.com/Neur-IO/BAMI.

EMO: Pretraining Mixture of Experts for Emergent Modularity cs.CL

Large language models are typically deployed as monolithic systems, requiring the full model even when applications need only a narrow subset of capabilities, e.g., code, math, or domain-specific knowledge. Mixture-of-Experts (MoEs) seemingly offer a potential alternative by activating only a subset of experts per input, but in practice, restricting inference to a subset of experts for a given domain leads to severe performance degradation. This limits their practicality in memory-constrained settings, especially as models grow larger and sparser. We introduce EMO, an MoE designed for modularity-the independent use and composition of expert subsets-without requiring human-defined priors. Our key idea is to encourage tokens from similar domains to rely on similar experts. Since tokens within a document often share a domain, EMO restricts them to select experts from a shared pool, while allowing different documents to use different pools. This simple constraint enables coherent expert groupings to emerge during pretraining using document boundaries alone. We pretrain a 1B-active, 14B-total EMO on 1T tokens. As a full model, it matches standard MoE performance. Crucially, it enables selective expert use: retaining only 25% (12.5%) of experts incurs just a 1% (3%) absolute drop, whereas standard MoEs break under the same setting. We further find that expert subsets in EMO specialize at semantic levels (e.g., domains such as math or code), in contrast to the low-level syntactic specialization observed in standard MoEs. Altogether, our results demonstrate a path toward modular, memory-efficient deployment of large, sparse models and open new opportunities for composable architectures.

Verifier-Backed Hard Problem Generation for Mathematical Reasoning cs.LG

Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate strong capabilities for solving scientific and mathematical problems, yet they struggle to produce valid, challenging, and novel problems - an essential component for advancing LLM training and enabling autonomous scientific research. Existing problem generation approaches either depend on expensive human expert involvement or adopt naive self-play paradigms, which frequently yield invalid problems due to reward hacking. This work introduces VHG, a verifier-enhanced hard problem generation framework built upon three-party self-play. By integrating an independent verifier into the conventional setter-solver duality, our design constrains the setter's reward to be jointly determined by problem validity (evaluated by the verifier) and difficulty (assessed by the solver). We instantiate two verifier variants: a Hard symbolic verifier and a Soft LLM-based verifier, with evaluations conducted on indefinite integral tasks and general mathematical reasoning tasks. Experimental results show that VHG substantially outperforms all baseline methods by a clear margin.

Why Global LLM Leaderboards Are Misleading: Small Portfolios for Heterogeneous Supervised ML cs.LG

Ranking LLMs via pairwise human feedback underpins current leaderboards for open-ended tasks, such as creative writing and problem-solving. We analyze ~89K comparisons in 116 languages from 52 LLMs from Arena, and show that the best-fit global Bradley-Terry (BT) ranking is misleading. Nearly 2/3 of the decisive votes cancel out, and even the top 50 models according to the global BT ranking are statistically indistinguishable (pairwise win probabilities are at most 0.53 within the top 50 models). We trace this failure to strong, structured heterogeneity of opinions across language, task, and time. Moreover, we find an important characteristic - *language* plays a key role. Grouping by language (and families) increases the agreement of votes massively, resulting in two orders of magnitude higher spread in the ELO scores (i.e., very consistent rankings). What appears as global noise is in fact a mixture of coherent but conflicting subpopulations. To address such heterogeneity in supervised machine learning, we introduce the framework of $(λ, ν)$-portfolios, which are small sets of models that achieve a prediction error at most $λ$, "covering" at least a $ν$ fraction of users. We formulate this as a variant of the set cover problem and provide guarantees using the VC dimension of the underlying set system. On the Arena data, our algorithms recover just 5 distinct BT rankings that cover over 96% of votes at a modest $λ$, compared to the 21% coverage by the global ranking. We also provide a portfolio of 6 LLMs that cover twice as many votes as the top-6 LLMs from a global ranking. We further construct portfolios for a classification problem on the COMPAS dataset using an ensemble of fairness-regularized classification models and show that these portfolios can be used to detect blind spots in the data, which might be of independent interest to policymakers.

BenchmarksFull tables
Artificial AnalysisIntelligence Index

Composite score across coding, math, and reasoning

#ModelScoretok/s$/1M
1GPT-5.560.270$11.25
2Claude Opus 4.757.355$10.94
3Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview57.2120$4.50
4GPT-5.456.876$5.63
5Kimi K2.653.939$1.71
SWE-rebench

Agentic coding on real-world software engineering tasks

#ModelScore
1Claude Opus 4.665.3%
2gpt-5.2-2025-12-11-medium64.4%
3GLM-562.8%
4Junie62.8%
5gpt-5.4-2026-03-05-medium62.8%