The Inference Report

April 26, 2026

The infrastructure race for AI is accelerating on two fronts at once. Anthropic demonstrated agents conducting real marketplace transactions without waiting for regulatory permission, while Maine's governor rejected a data center moratorium that would have constrained physical capacity through 2027. Cohere's acquisition of Aleph Alpha, backed by European retail capital, signals that governments now treat AI capability as strategic infrastructure worth defending from foreign control, the way they once guarded telecommunications and energy networks. The market structure is crystallizing around a simple hierarchy: whoever controls the chips, data centers, and agent platforms controls the economic layer built on top of them.

This concentration is forcing a bifurcation in how developers respond. The open-source ecosystem is splitting between those building portability layers that treat LLM APIs as interchangeable infrastructure, and those capturing value by integrating models into larger products like analytics platforms and multi-agent systems. Projects wrapping Claude, DeepSeek, and OpenAI behind compatibility middleware are solving vendor lock-in, but they're also symptoms of a market that hasn't standardized. Meanwhile, code generation tools are delegating routine work to agents while developers retain control over critical decisions, suggesting the market is settling on a hybrid model rather than full automation.

The disconnect is stark: builders have working autonomous agents conducting commerce and developers have tools to delegate tedious work, yet the question of who owns the physical infrastructure powering them remains contested between corporate players, state governments, and foreign competitors. Computational power is no longer separable from the question of which company's AI runs on it. Infrastructure, in other words, is now inseparable from market dominance.

Grant Calloway

AI LabsAll labs

No lab headlines.

From the WireAll feeds
Research Papers — FocusedAll papers
Doeblin Curves cs.IT

Recent research on Doeblin coefficients has shed light on their usefulness as a multi-way generalization of the Dobrushin contraction coefficient for TV distance, in a separate vein from their classic role in the theory of Markov chain ergodicity. However, strong conditions, such as being bounded away from 0, are typically necessary for Doeblin coefficients to establish the existence of information contraction. Building on recently formulated concepts of nonlinear information contraction, we aim to propose a finer-grained Doeblin-based characterization of multi-way contraction behavior which yields non-vacuous contraction guarantees even for channels whose Doeblin coefficient is 0. To this end, we introduce the notion of a Doeblin curve -- a nonlinear function which quantifies the contraction behavior of a Markov kernel on collections of input distributions at specific levels of divergence and power. Through the course of our analysis, we develop a new variational characterization of Doeblin coefficients, present several properties of Doeblin curves, define several versions of power-constrained Doeblin curves, and derive upper and lower bounds using our aforementioned variational characterization. We then utilize these results in diverse areas, including generalization bounds for noisy iterative optimization, error bounds for reliable computation with noisy circuits, and differential privacy guarantees for online iterative algorithms. In particular, we extend results in these areas to broader domains or group settings, leveraging Doeblin curves to reveal finer-grained contraction phenomena than Doeblin coefficients.

Nonlinear Two-Time-Scale Stochastic Approximation: A Sharp Phase Transition and How to Beat It cs.IT

Recent finite-time analyses of nonlinear two-time-scale stochastic approximation show that under contractive assumptions the slow iterate $Y_k$ with stepsizes $β_k=Θ(k^{-1})$ and $α_k=Θ(k^{-a})$, $a\in(1/2,1)$, generally satisfies a mean-square rate of order $k^{-a}$; decoupled $k^{-1}$ rates require strong local linearity. We identify a sharp regularity-dependent boundary. In a rate-determining normal form where the slow drift contains a locally linear leakage and a nonlinear remainder of order $1+ρ$ ($ρ\in[0,1]$), the uncorrected recursion satisfies \[ \mathbb{E}\|Y_k\|^2 \le C\bigl(k^{-1}+k^{-a(1+ρ)}\bigr), \] and a matching scalar Gaussian lower bound shows that the slower term is unavoidable without modifying the update. Thus the decoupled $k^{-1}$ rate is guaranteed for the uncorrected recursion exactly when $a(1+ρ)\ge 1$. This lower bound concerns only the naive update; it is not an information-theoretic obstruction. We demonstrate this by equipping the normal-form recursion with an auxiliary online bias estimator \[ M_{k+1}=M_k+γ_k(R(X_k)-M_k),\qquad β_k\llγ_k\llα_k, \] and subtracting $M_k$ from the slow update. Under the same stability, moment, and remainder assumptions, the corrected recursion achieves $\mathbb{E}\|\widetilde Y_k\|^2=O(k^{-1})$ for every $ρ\in[0,1]$, including regimes where the uncorrected update provably suffers the slower rate. Finally, we prove localized transfer theorems that extend the phase-transition mechanism to general nonlinear TTSA in fast-manifold coordinates. The proofs are non-asymptotic and rely on two Abel-transform cancellations: one for the locally linear fast-error leakage, and one for the tracked nonlinear bias.

Masked Neural Detection for Constrained Channel Coding in Molecular Communication cs.IT

Molecular communication (MC) suffers from severe diffusion memory because molecules released for one symbol may arrive during later symbols. Neural sequence detectors, especially sliding bidirectional recurrent neural networks (SBRNNs), can substantially outperform threshold detectors in such channels. This raises a central question for MC channel coding: does a code whose advantage was established under threshold detection retain it when both coded and uncoded transmission are evaluated with neural detection? This letter answers this question for run-length-limited ISI-mitigation (RLIM) codes, a class of constrained codes previously shown to provide large BER gains in MC. Across the tested operating points, the best RLIM-SBRNN receiver beats the best uncoded receiver, chosen between threshold and SBRNN detection, in $46$ of $59$ cases, with a mean gain of $10.36\times$ over those wins. We also propose an RLIM-tailored training mask for compact SBRNN detectors, improving the unmasked RLIM-SBRNN in $227$ of $236$ comparisons with $3.267\times$ mean gain when masking is beneficial. Finally, the compact masked RLIM-SBRNN is competitive with channel-state-aware MLSE despite using no channel knowledge.

JSCGC: Joint Source-Channel-Generation Coding for Wireless Generative Communications cs.IT

Conventional communication systems, including both separation-based coding and learning-based joint source-channel coding (JSCC), are typically designed under Shannon's rate-distortion theory. However, relying on generic distortion metrics fails to capture complex human visual perception, often resulting in blurred or unrealistic reconstructions. In this paper, we propose Joint Source-Channel-Generation Coding (JSCGC), a generative communication paradigm that replaces the conventional decoder with a generative model at the receiver. The received signal is treated as a condition that controls the sampling process into the learned conditional distribution, reformulating communication from deterministic reconstruction for distortion minimization to controlled generation for mutual information maximization under perceptual constraints. Based on this formulation, we develop a unified joint training and efficient stochastic sampling framework, and provide theoretical analysis of its effectiveness in both learning and inference stages. Extensive experiments on latent-space image transmission demonstrate that the JSCGC consistently improves feature-based, semantic-level, and distributional quality across diverse channel conditions, while exhibiting a distinct error behavior characterized by semantic inconsistency rather than distortion.

Minimum Distortion Quantization with Specified Output Distribution cs.IT

We derive the optimal quantizer of a real-valued random variable $W$ with distribution $P_W$ such that 1) the distribution of the quantization output $X$ that can take $k$ values follows any specified distribution $P_X$ over $\{1,\ldots,k\}$, and 2) the minimum mean squared error (MMSE) of estimating $W$ from $X$ is minimized. It is shown that the optimal quantizer takes the form $X=σ\big(F_{σ^{-1}(X)}^{-1}(F_W(W))\big)$, where $σ$ is the optimal permutation of $\{1,\ldots,k\}$ among all permutations to minimize the MMSE, and $F$ is the cumulative distribution function. When $P_W$ is uniform over an interval or $P_X$ is uniform over $\{1,\ldots,k\}$, the quantizer takes a simple form $X=F_{X}^{-1}(F_W(W))$. The concept of majorization plays a key role in the optimality proof. Specifying the output distribution is useful for designing quantizers with explicitly controlled output entropy, maximized mutual information between input and output, tailored output distribution to match channel input requirements for communication, and data anonymization.

Secure Aggregation with Top-K Sparsification in Decentralized Federated Learning cs.IT

Secure aggregation is a vital component for mitigating gradient leakage in federated learning, but its communication cost conventionally scales with the gradient dimension. This becomes prohibitive for large models and even more pronounced in decentralized federated learning with limited bandwidth and unreliable nodes. Top-K gradient sparsification is an effective approach to reduce communication by transmitting only a few entries of the full gradient, while maintaining competitive model accuracy. Nevertheless, the top-K entries selected by each user are unpredictable and vary across users, which poses a challenge for efficient sparse secure aggregation. This paper studies information-theoretic secure aggregation with top-K sparsification in decentralized federated learning under user dropouts and user collusion. We propose a communication-efficient sparse secure aggregation scheme that offloads dimension-dependent overhead to an offline phase and protects private gradients using random masks and permutations. Experimental results demonstrate that our scheme preserves accuracy comparable to full-gradient aggregation even with only 1% gradient sparsification, while substantially reducing the communication cost.

BenchmarksFull tables
Artificial AnalysisIntelligence Index

Composite score across coding, math, and reasoning

#ModelScoretok/s$/1M
1GPT-5.560.2101$11.25
2Claude Opus 4.757.364$10.00
3Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview57.2135$4.50
4GPT-5.456.883$5.63
5Kimi K2.653.9108$1.71
SWE-rebench

Agentic coding on real-world software engineering tasks

#ModelScore
1Claude Opus 4.665.3%
2gpt-5.2-2025-12-11-medium64.4%
3GLM-562.8%
4gpt-5.4-2026-03-05-medium62.8%
5GLM-5.162.7%