The Inference Report

Mathematical problem solving remains a challenging test of reasoning for large language and multimodal models, yet existing benchmarks are limited in size, language coverage, and task diversity. We introduce MathNet, a high-quality, large-scale, multimodal, and multilingual dataset of Olympiad-level math problems together with a benchmark for evaluating mathematical reasoning in generative models and mathematical retrieval in embedding-based systems. MathNet spans 47 countries, 17 languages, and two decades of competitions, comprising 30,676 expert-authored problems with solutions across diverse domains. In addition to the core dataset, we construct a retrieval benchmark consisting of mathematically equivalent and structurally similar problem pairs curated by human experts. MathNet supports three tasks: (i) Problem Solving, (ii) Math-Aware Retrieval, and (iii) Retrieval-Augmented Problem Solving. Experimental results show that even state-of-the-art reasoning models (78.4% for Gemini-3.1-Pro and 69.3% for GPT-5) remain challenged, while embedding models struggle to retrieve equivalent problems. We further show that retrieval-augmented generation performance is highly sensitive to retrieval quality; for example, DeepSeek-V3.2-Speciale achieves gains of up to 12%, obtaining the highest scores on the benchmark. MathNet provides the largest high-quality Olympiad dataset together with the first benchmark for evaluating mathematical problem retrieval, and we publicly release both the dataset and benchmark at https://mathnet.mit.edu.

Modern sequence models are dominated by Transformers, where self-attention mixes information from the visible context in an input-dependent way. However, when retrieval is not sharp and attention remains diffuse over an effective support $S_{\mathrm{eff}}(t)$, the influence of any individual token is diluted, typically scaling as $O(1/S_{\mathrm{eff}}(t))$ and reaching $O(1/\ell)$ for old tokens in full-prefix settings. Structured state-space models process sequences recurrently through an explicit feedback path; selective variants such as Mamba make this feedback input-dependent, yet when freeze time cannot be sustained over long intervals, their long-range sensitivity decays exponentially with lag. Existing architectures therefore either retrieve from the past in a single read or propagate information through a single feedback chain. We introduce Sessa, a decoder that places attention inside a feedback path, enabling recurrent many-path aggregation within a layer. Under stated assumptions, Sessa admits regimes with a power-law memory tail in lag $\ell$ of order $O(\ell^{-β})$ for $0<β<1$, which is asymptotically slower than $1/\ell$; moreover, this rate is tight in an explicit diffuse uniform-routing setting where the influence is $Θ(\ell^{-β})$. Under the same conditions, only Sessa among the compared model classes realizes flexible selective retrieval, including non-decaying profiles. Empirically, under matched architectures and training budgets, Sessa achieves the strongest performance on our long-context benchmarks while remaining competitive with Transformer and Mamba style baselines on short-context language modeling.

Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) has become the predominant algorithm for on-policy reinforcement learning due to its scalability and empirical robustness across domains. However, there is a significant disconnect between the underlying foundations of trust region methods and the heuristic clipped objective used in PPO. In this paper, we bridge this gap by introducing the Bounded Ratio Reinforcement Learning (BRRL) framework. We formulate a novel regularized and constrained policy optimization problem and derive its analytical optimal solution. We prove that this solution ensures monotonic performance improvement. To handle parameterized policy classes, we develop a policy optimization algorithm called Bounded Policy Optimization (BPO) that minimizes an advantage-weighted divergence between the policy and the analytic optimal solution from BRRL. We further establish a lower bound on the expected performance of the resulting policy in terms of the BPO loss function. Notably, our framework also provides a new theoretical lens to interpret the success of the PPO loss, and connects trust region policy optimization and the Cross-Entropy Method (CEM). We additionally extend BPO to Group-relative BPO (GBPO) for LLM fine-tuning. Empirical evaluations of BPO across MuJoCo, Atari, and complex IsaacLab environments (e.g., Humanoid locomotion), and of GBPO for LLM fine-tuning tasks, demonstrate that BPO and GBPO generally match or outperform PPO and GRPO in stability and final performance.

We present BLF (Bayesian Linguistic Forecaster), an agentic system for binary forecasting that achieves state-of-the-art performance on the ForecastBench benchmark. The system is built on three ideas. (1) A Bayesian linguistic belief state: a semi-structured representation combining numerical probability estimates with natural-language evidence summaries, updated by the LLM at each step of an iterative tool-use loop. This contrasts with the common approach of appending all retrieved evidence to an ever-growing context. (2) Hierarchical multi-trial aggregation: running $K$ independent trials and combining them using logit-space shrinkage with a data-dependent prior. (3) Hierarchical calibration: Platt scaling with a hierarchical prior, which avoids over-shrinking extreme predictions for sources with skewed base rates. On 400 backtesting questions from the ForecastBench leaderboard, BLF outperforms all the top public methods, including Cassi, GPT-5, Grok~4.20, and Foresight-32B. Ablation studies show that the structured belief state is as impactful as web search access, and that shrinkage aggregation and hierarchical calibration each provide significant additional gains. In addition, we develop a robust back-testing framework with a leakage rate below 1.5\%, and use rigorous statistical methodology to compare different methods while controlling for various sources of noise.

Large language models have achieved significant reasoning improvements through reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR). Yet as model capabilities grow, constructing high-quality reward signals becomes increasingly difficult, making it essential to understand when RLVR can succeed under weaker forms of supervision. We conduct a systematic empirical study across diverse model families and reasoning domains under three weak supervision settings: scarce data, noisy rewards, and self-supervised proxy rewards. We find that generalization is governed by training reward saturation dynamics: models that generalize exhibit a prolonged pre-saturation phase during which training reward and downstream performance climb together, while models that saturate rapidly memorize rather than learn. We identify reasoning faithfulness, defined as the extent to which intermediate steps logically support the final answer, as the pre-RL property that predicts which regime a model falls into, while output diversity alone is uninformative. Motivated by these findings, we disentangle the contributions of continual pre-training and supervised fine-tuning, finding that SFT on explicit reasoning traces is necessary for generalization under weak supervision, while continual pre-training on domain data amplifies the effect. Applied together to Llama3.2-3B-Base, these interventions enable generalization across all three settings where the base model previously failed.

The Platonic Representation Hypothesis suggests that neural networks trained on different modalities (e.g., text and images) align and eventually converge toward the same representation of reality. If true, this has significant implications for whether modality choice matters at all. We show that the experimental evidence for this hypothesis is fragile and depends critically on the evaluation regime. Alignment is measured using mutual nearest neighbors on small datasets ($\approx$1K samples) and degrades substantially as the dataset is scaled to millions of samples. The alignment that remains between model representations reflects coarse semantic overlap rather than consistent fine-grained structure. Moreover, the evaluations in Huh et al. are done in a one-to-one image-caption setting, a constraint that breaks down in realistic many-to-many settings and further reduces alignment. We also find that the reported trend of stronger language models increasingly aligning with vision does not appear to hold for newer models. Overall, our findings suggest that the current evidence for cross-modal representational convergence is considerably weaker than subsequent works have taken it to be. Models trained on different modalities may learn equally rich representations of the world, just not the same one.