The Inference Report

March 7, 2026

Anthropic's refusal to surrender control of Claude to Pentagon demands has split the AI market along a fault line that now determines winners and losers: companies that preserve user trust versus those that accept government terms. The choice cost Anthropic a $200 million contract but delivered something more durable. Claude's app now sees more daily installs than ChatGPT, which suffered a 295 percent surge in uninstalls after OpenAI accepted the Pentagon's conditions. This is not a debate about safety frameworks. It is a market signal that the consumer base will punish military entanglement, and that signal is reshaping how AI companies calculate their revenue mix.

The fracture extends beyond geopolitics into infrastructure and talent. Microsoft, Google, and Amazon all moved quickly to preserve Claude access through their platforms, recognizing that distribution channels matter more than any single vendor relationship. Musk failed to block California's data disclosure law, forcing xAI into transparency about training data sources. Britain's House of Lords demanded licensing before copyright use. The UK, Denmark, and Germany are shifting procurement toward open-source alternatives and away from US vendors. These are not ideological moves. They reflect the recognition that whoever controls the model controls leverage, and governments are moving to dilute that leverage by fragmenting it. Alibaba replaced its top AI researcher with a Google DeepMind veteran within 48 hours. DeepSeek is shipping a trillion-parameter open-weight model on Chinese silicon, signaling the effort to break free from Nvidia's grip is moving from aspiration to product. An AI startup sued its ex-CEO for stealing 41GB of emails, exposing how fast institutional knowledge now migrates between competitors.

Meanwhile, the labs are abandoning the race for next-generation breakthroughs in favor of embedding models into workflows where revenue is immediate and measurable. OpenAI is locking in usage through application security and financial services partnerships. GitHub's vulnerability scanner runs on OpenAI's Codex Security agent. Descript uses OpenAI models for multilingual dubbing. AMD is positioning itself as the platform for domain-specific inference where computational cost matters. Anthropic's Firefox partnership focuses on security at the browser level rather than announcing new capabilities. What's absent is more telling than what's present: no consumer products, no benchmark breakthroughs, only integration into existing tools and revenue streams. The labs are becoming infrastructure inside things that already work.

The benchmarks themselves signal consolidation at a plateau. Claude Code holds 52.9 percent on SWE-rebench with no movement at the top tier. Below rank four, the list shows significant churn driven by model versioning rather than performance gains. Gemini 3 Pro Preview and GPT-5.4 lead Artificial Analysis at 57 percent but do not appear in SWE-rebench's top rankings, indicating the benchmarks measure different capabilities or use different protocols. The absence of clear improvement signals in the top tier, combined with ranking instability in the 7-20 range, suggests the field is consolidating around a performance plateau rather than advancing. GitHub's trending repos confirm the shift: developers are building orchestration frameworks and supporting infrastructure for agent systems, not chasing model scale. Airi, Qwen-Agent, and CyberStrikeAI all treat agents as orchestrated systems where specialized components handle retrieval, planning, and tool use. The plumbing that makes AI systems reproducible and composable at production scale is where engineering effort is concentrating. The market has stopped waiting for the next breakthrough and started building the systems to deploy what already exists.

Grant Calloway

AI LabsAll labs
From the WireAll feeds
Research Papers — FocusedAll papers
Learning Sexism Detection Using Multi-Agent Perspectivist Preference Optimization cs.CL

When people label text for sexism, they often disagree, and not because some of them are wrong: they genuinely perceive sexism differently. Most NLP systems discard this disagreement by collapsing it into a majority vote. We propose the Multi-Agent Perspectivist Preference Optimization (MAP-PO) framework to keep these different perspectives. On the EXIST 2024 dataset of labeled English and Spanish tweets, we first cluster annotators by their labeling behavior rather than their demographic attributes. We then fine-tune one Large Language Model agent per cluster to reproduce that cluster's annotation behavior, and coordinate the agents with preference optimization that combines individual and team-level rewards. We evaluate MAP-PO in four settings defined by two languages and two backbone language models, asking whether each agent reproduces the annotations of its own cluster and whether the agents together reproduce the majority label. Two findings hold in all four settings. First, without fine-tuning the agents behave almost identically, so cluster-specific training is necessary. Second, we show that training each agent only on the labels of its own cluster pushes the agents far beyond the clusters they should represent, while adding a shared team-level training signal consistently keeps each agent calibrated to its cluster.

ConlangBench: Exploring Language Knowledge and Learning in LLMs through Diverse Constructed Languages cs.CL

Constructed languages (conlangs) are intentionally created human languages with a rich tradition of linguistic creativity. Despite their potential for studying language learning in large language models (LLMs), existing conlangs remain largely underexplored in LLM research. We present ConlangBench, the first large-scale benchmark for evaluating and training LLMs on 21 existing conlangs. We collect over 21M conlang-English parallel sentence pairs (including 430K pairs across the 20 non-Esperanto conlangs) and 321K vocabulary entries. In bidirectional translation experiments, we find that models perform better on a posteriori conlangs, whose vocabularies are derived from natural languages, reflecting the design characteristics of conlangs. Training on ConlangBench also shows that models can learn all eight conlangs for which sufficient parallel corpora are available, while their learning curves vary depending on how the conlangs were created. Our findings suggest that conlangs provide a unique testbed for investigating how LLMs acquire low-resource languages.

Consensus Measures for Unstructured Biomedical Text Annotations cs.CL

Biomedical literature is increasingly mined for knowledge beyond the questions it was written to answer. Because the target concepts are not known in advance, annotators prefer open-ended labels, whose agreement is hard to quantify. We study soft inter-rater reliability for annotators providing unstructured texts for biomedical annotation tasks. Synthetic experiments show that soft reliability can be quantified using a variety of semantic equivalence measures, and that the choice of measure affects failure modes of the estimation. Embeddings are scalable, but limited when differentiating similar but distinct concepts. Large language models are promising, but limited by scalability for estimating agreement by chance. Finally, we suggest measures based on natural language inference as a sensible compromise.

Hi-TTRL: Regulating Consensus with Hints for Test-Time Reinforcement Learning cs.CL

Test-time reinforcement learning (TTRL) improves the reasoning capabilities of large language models without labeled data by updating the policy with pseudo-labels constructed through majority voting. While effective, the reward signal assigned from majority voting is highly sensitive to consensus strength, defined as the frequency of the most common answer within a rollout group. In TTRL, consensus strength plays a dual role: it reflects both the reliability of the pseudo-label and the distribution of advantages. Low consensus can amplify updates from unreliable pseudo-labels through disproportionately large advantages, whereas high consensus reduces reward contrast and ultimately yields vanishing gradients. In this paper, we introduce Hi-TTRL, a test-time reinforcement learning framework that utilizes hints during sampling to regulate rollout consensus strength. Hi-TTRL first estimates consensus strength from a partial rollout group. When the consensus strength falls outside a target interval, it invokes a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) hint sampler. The sampler targets the power-transformed prefix distribution and uses finite-step approximate sampling to generate rollout prefixes as hints. By tuning the power exponent, Hi-TTRL generates hints with a sharpened or flattened power target, steering rollout consensus strength toward the target interval. Experiments on multiple datasets and backbones show that Hi-TTRL consistently improves over standard TTRL, with ablations and consensus-steering analyses validating the effectiveness of adaptive hint-guided consensus regulation.

GPTKB 2.0: Direct Construction of Disambiguated Knowledge Bases from Large Language Models cs.CL

Automated Knowledge Base Construction (AKBC) is a core NLP task, and recent work proposes generating knowledge bases directly from large language models (LLMs), treating the model itself as the knowledge source. However, LLMs natively possess no representation of entities, leading to duplicate entries as well as conflations. We propose GPTKB 2.0, a methodology for constructing disambiguated KBs directly from LLMs. GPTKB 2.0 incorporates on-the-fly disambiguation of entities, relations and classes, and is meticulously designed to satisfy both scalability and disambiguation accuracy. We analyze the central design decisions and characterize the trade-offs between accuracy, scale, and cost. We execute GPTKB 2.0 at scale, obtaining a materialized KB containing over 1M disambiguated entities and 38.4M triples. This represents the first million-scale LLM-native KB with explicit internal canonicalization of entities, relations, and classes, a significant departure from prior Wikimedia-centric works. GPTKB 2.0 is available at https://gptkb.org/.

OneDayAgent: Towards a Long-Horizon Harness for Autonomous Agents cs.CL

LLM agents are increasingly applied to open-ended everyday requests that span work, study, and life. These tasks are long-horizon, cross-environment, and multimodal, forcing the agent to preserve goals and constraints across many steps while navigating heterogeneous tools and attachments. While prior work has addressed individual failure modes such as goals drift, states loss, and context overflow, whether a single harness can manage them jointly and remain effective across backends has received less study. We present OneDayAgent, a long-horizon harness for autonomous agents. OneDayAgent turns an open-ended request into a managed execution process that decomposes tasks into bounded subtasks, maintains execution memory under context pressure, and verifies and repairs the final deliverable. We evaluate OneDayAgent on AgentIF-OneDay across 104 tasks. With the GLM-5.2 backend, OneDayAgent sets a new state of the art with an overall score of 0.821. The same harness runs across five backend LLMs from three model families, indicating the harness generalizes across backends without tuning, even as different models induce distinct execution styles under the same workflow.

BenchmarksFull tables
Artificial AnalysisIntelligence Index

Composite score across coding, math, and reasoning

#ModelScoretok/s$/1M
1Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview57.2126$4.50
2GPT-5.45774$5.63
3GPT-5.3 Codex5468$4.81
4Claude Opus 4.65359$10.00
5Claude Sonnet 4.651.770$6.00
SWE-rebench

Agentic coding on real-world software engineering tasks

#ModelScore
1Claude Code52.9%
2Claude Opus 4.651.7%
3gpt-5.2-2025-12-11-xhigh51.7%
4gpt-5.2-2025-12-11-medium51.0%
5gpt-5.1-codex-max48.5%
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